The Senate's earmark explosion

IN THIS EDITION

Collins’ Maine bonanza

Senators eye minibus funding deal

Republicans’ big bet on Latino candidates

Tech: Warren, Rounds push for parts of Biden AI rule

Modsquad launches pro-Cooper N.C. Senate ad buy

THE TOP

Collins’ Maine bonanza

Happy Thursday morning.

Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) finally has her dream job after nearly three decades in the Senate, and she’s not wasting any time using it.

Collins — who is up for reelection next year — has loaded up her panel’s FY2026 spending bills with more than $810 million in earmarks and directed spending for Maine. But that’s just a portion of how much federal money will flow into the Pine Tree State thanks to the veteran senator.

The Portsmouth Naval Shipyard in Kittery, Maine — the U.S. Navy’s oldest shipyard — is in line to get $460 million in upgrades thanks to Collins. There’s tens of millions of dollars for the Maine fishing industry.

Collins has secured another $135 million in transportation earmarks, plus $59 million for drinking water and wastewater infrastructure projects. The University of Maine system gets $52 million. Lots of Mainers will be impacted by the federal spending — if it comes together.

Yet with the likelihood of a stopgap funding bill and possibly a government shutdown increasing, these Senate spending bills are at risk of falling by the wayside, which would hurt both parties politically. A CR won’t have earmarks, something Collins and other Senate appropriators are desperately trying to avoid for a second year in a row.

“I believe that members know far better than somebody who works in an office building or a federal agency in Washington and has never been to a member’s state which projects are worthy of support,” Collins said in a Wednesday interview.

Collins noted that earmarks and other funding requests are vetted carefully. Earmarks, aka “Congressionally Directed Spending,” only go to non-profit organizations and community groups. Lawmakers must declare they have no personal financial stake in the projects, and the earmarks are publicly disclosed.

“We get thousands — literally — of programmatic requests and [earmarks] in every state,” Collins added. “I see this as a tug of war between the executive branch and the legislative branch on directing funds.”

Collins also downplayed any suggestions that directing all this money back to Maine is simply designed to help a powerful politician get reelected to a sixth term.

“It really isn’t,” Collins insisted.

Sen. Jon Ossoff (Ga.) is the most vulnerable Senate Democrat this cycle, a freshman looking for another term in a state carried by President Donald Trump in November.

The 38-year-old Ossoff, top Democrat on the MilCon-VA subcommittee on Appropriations, wants to funnel hundreds of millions back home to Georgia. The MilCon-VA bill alone includes more than $550 million for Peach State military construction projects. Ossoff also has 88 earmarks worth nearly $79 million.

“The Senate bill would provide more military construction resources to the state of Georgia since 2010,” Ossoff told us. “I have worked relentlessly using this seat on the Appropriations Committee to deliver for Georgia. I always fight like hell for Georgia.”

So far this fiscal year, there are more than 2,000 earmarks in just five Senate-drafted bills, according to a Punchbowl News analysis. The total price tag for those earmarks: $5 billion-plus.

The Senate Appropriations Committee is marking up two FY2026 spending bills today — Defense and Labor-Health and Human Services.

GOP sources said that for these two bills alone, 95 senators submitted more than 11,000 funding requests to the Appropriations Committee. This gives you an idea of the stakes here.

If they’re approved as expected, these would be the seventh and eighth bills greenlighted by the panel, which is struggling to get back to regular order after Congress passed a long-term CR in March.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are trying to hash out a multi-bill package of appropriations measures and pass it before the August recess. There’s no deal yet, although it could come today (more below.).

Not everyone is on board with the earmark push. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who got into a closed-door spat with Collins at a GOP lunch meeting last week, is pushing to prevent senators from speaking publicly about earmarks.

Johnson wants a vote on an amendment that would automatically rescind a senator’s earmark if he or she publicly touts it in press releases, media appearances or elsewhere. Senators aren’t taking kindly to Johnson’s effort, so it’s unlikely to actually be enacted.

There was also a brutal partisan clash over a $9 billion rescissions package from the White House. This was approved on a party-line vote, and Democrats warn that if GOP leaders try this again, there’s no hope of any bipartisan funding deal.

And House Republicans are passing FY2026 appropriations bills at a drastically lower funding level than the Senate, basically what the White House requested in its “skinny” budget proposal. The higher level of spending called for by the Senate Appropriations Committee has angered some GOP conservatives like Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), an appropriator himself.

“The real underlying struggle here is people who want to reduce spending and people who really, really want to pass an appropriations bill, no matter what we have to give away,” Kennedy said. “I believed for a while we’re going to be governing through CRs and rescissions. That’s just the reality of it.”

— John Bresnahan, Samantha Handler and Andrew Desiderio

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FUNDING FIGHT

Senators eye minibus funding deal

Senate leaders and appropriators are trying to hash out a three- or four-bill package of FY2026 government funding bills, with the goal of reaching an agreement before the August recess.

Republicans have already resolved internal hangups on a minibus package that would combine Military Construction-Veterans’ Affairs, Agriculture and Commerce-Justice-Science.

Now, after Democratic leaders checked for holds on their side, leaders and appropriators are discussing the possibility of adding the Legislative Branch funding bill to the minibus. Democrats are pushing for its inclusion due in part to the boosted security funding for lawmakers.

One problem, though, has been Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.). Kennedy said on Wednesday he’d continue to object to the Leg Branch bill being bundled with other funding legislation he supports. Kennedy was the only member of the Appropriations Committee to oppose the bill.

“I just want to vote no,” Kennedy said. “If they lump it together with two other budget bills that I’m for, it forces me to vote yes when I want to vote no. So I’ve objected and I’ll continue to object.”

Kennedy huddled with Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine), Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso off the Senate floor Wednesday night.

Shutdown showdown. It would be significant if senators strike a bipartisan deal before the recess, allowing for floor action when they return to Washington in September. It could give them an upper hand in any showdown with the House over FY2026 spending, since the House would be under pressure to accept a package that can already clear the 60-vote threshold in the Senate.

“I am optimistic that we will get most of the bills — but not all of them — finished by Oct. 1 and into conference [with the House],” Collins said.

If the Senate Appropriations Committee advances both the Defense and Labor-HHS bills at its Thursday markup, the panel will have eight bills ready for floor action.

Senate GOP leaders are intent on passing as many appropriations bills as possible before the Sept. 30 deadline, and they desperately want to avoid a stopgap continuing resolution. The challenge would be convincing the House to take up those Senate-passed bipartisan bills in some form, which include spending levels that are much higher than those approved by House GOP appropriators.

If the two chambers are able to sync up on those bills, it could mean that a government shutdown — if Democrats force one — would only apply to certain departments and agencies. On the other hand, lawmakers could pass a CR to cover the remaining parts of the government.

— Samantha Handler, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

THE CAMPAIGN

Republicans’ big bet on Latino candidates

Republicans are leaning into a simple strategy to win over the crucial bloc of Latino voters: recruit them as candidates.

In the years since the 2016 cycle, many heavily Latino House districts swung from overwhelmingly backing Hillary Clinton to strongly favoring President Donald Trump.

Now, GOP leaders are making a concerted effort to field Latino candidates in these districts to help turn these pro-Trump voters into loyal Republicans. Some of these seats, such as New Jersey’s 9th District, represented by Rep. Nellie Pou (D), and California’s 25th District, represented by Rep. Raul Ruiz (D), haven’t been seriously contested in recent years but are now freshly competitive.

Democrats unused to intense campaigns are now in potential swing districts, thanks to this major Latino voter political realignment.

Here’s a look at the emerging battlegrounds:

The newly competitive seats:

New Jersey’s 9th District: Pou’s seat shifted 20 points to the right at the presidential level from 2020 to 2024 and is now a Trump +1 district. Clifton City Councilmember Rosie Pino is running for this northern New Jersey seat that no one thought was in play last year.

California’s 25th District: Ruiz’s seat shifted 12 points to the right from 2020 to 2024 and is now a district Kamala Harris won by just three points. Republicans are excited about Joe Males, a Hemet city councilmember, who outraised Ruiz last quarter.

California’s 21st District: Rep. Jim Costa’s (D) district moved 16 points to the right from 2020 to 2024 and is now a Harris +4 district. Republicans are coalescing behind Lorenzo Rios, a U.S. Marine and Army veteran, in this seat.

Previously competitive seats that have seen big shifts:

California’s 9th District: Rep. Josh Harder’s (D) seat shifted 15 points to the right from 2020 to 2024 and is now a Trump +2 seat. Republicans are again fielding former Stockton, Calif., Mayor Kevin Lincoln, who lost to Harder last cycle. Lincoln’s mother is of Mexican descent.

California’s 13th District: Rep. Adam Gray’s (D) seat shifted 16 points to the right at the presidential level from 2020 to 2024 and is now a Trump +5 district. Ceres, Calif., Mayor Javier Lopez is running.

Texas’ 28th District: Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D) district shifted 14 points to the right since 2020 and is now a Trump +7 district. The GOP may end up with a primary here but Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, a Democrat-turned-Republican, is one to watch.

Texas’ 34th District: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D). This seat shifted 20 points to the right since 2020 and is now a Trump +4 district. Eric Flores, an Army vet, is planning to run here.

Both of those Texas seats are very likely to shift even further to the right thanks to the GOP’s redistricting push. Trump and House GOP leaders are hoping to pick as many as five seats in the states.

“Republicans are the party of common sense, and Hispanic voters know it,” Christian Martinez, the NRCC’s national Hispanic press secretary, said in a statement.

The Democratic response: Democrats insist that their incumbents are well positioned to win reelection given that their members all won even when they were on the same ticket as Trump in 2024. And Trump isn’t on the ticket next year.

“These Hispanic Democrat incumbents performed well in ’24 because they’re rooted in their communities and delivering results,” Valeria Ojeda-Avitia, the communications director for the political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, said in a statement.

Democrats also point to recent polling that shows Latino voters growing increasingly dissatisfied with Trump’s handling of the economy.

— Max Cohen and Ally Mutnick

Tech: Warren, Rounds push for parts of Biden AI rule

News: A bipartisan Senate duo wants the Trump administration to save parts of the Biden administration’s AI framework to ensure artificial intelligence technology is “built at home.”

In a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) ask that any new rules developed by Commerce maintain incentives for companies to keep the majority of their computing infrastructure in the United States and include “robust security guardrails” on data centers overseas.

“These requirements serve as an important backstop against outsourcing our core advantage in AI overseas,” Warren and Rounds wrote. “If left unchecked, outsourcing could move the center of gravity for cutting-edge AI training and deployment away from the United States.”

Notably, the two said the so-called diffusion rule issued by the Biden administration was “rightfully criticized for being overly complicated and burdensome.” The rule created a system of tiers for which countries could buy American AI chips, placing tougher restrictions on geopolitical adversaries, as well as some allies like Poland.

But despite the criticism, Warren and Rounds said the rule’s ultimate goal of keeping the AI infrastructure in the United States should be included in any new rulemaking.

The rule, blocked by the Trump administration, drew fierce criticism from the chips industry, which said it would have crippled global American leadership on AI and allowed Chinese tech firms to dominate the world market.

Export controls. The two also reinforced that export controls “play a key role” in keeping AI in America just as the administration relaxes curbs on chips going to China.

Warren is increasingly becoming one of the most prominent voices in the chips export control debate, often siding with GOP China hawks. As we’ve written, this is a policy area where the political lines are blurring.

While some lawmakers and administration officials, most prominently White House AI Czar David Sacks, say it is critical that U.S. chipmakers take as much global market share as possible, others want to be more restrictive of AI technology going abroad.

— Diego Areas Munhoz

THE CAMPAIGN

Modsquad launches pro-Cooper N.C. Senate ad buy

First in Punchbowl News: ModSquad Action, a center-left group dedicated to electing pragmatic Democrats, is spending $15,000 on an ad buy in support of former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper’s Senate campaign.

The ad hails Cooper as a politician who “gets stuff done,” singling out Cooper’s role in expanding Medicaid in the Tar Heel state and creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.

The initial digital ad buy, targeted at voters in Nash and Wilson counties, isn’t a huge amount. But it’s an early sign that ModSquad wants to become a bigger player in the campaign spending ecosystem.

The spending represents ModSquad’s first expenditure of the 2026 cycle and the group’s first ever spending on a non-incumbent Democratic challenger. The group, chaired by Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), also counts Sens. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) and Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) as leading members.

— Max Cohen

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