Schumer, Senate Dems harden with no exit strategy

IN THIS EDITION

Inside the caucus: Senate Dems hold the line despite no exit strategy

SNAP and other federal programs begin to shut down

Redistricting push hits roadblocks in state legislatures

Tech: Paul warns Thune on CISA

THE TOP

Inside the caucus: Senate Dems hold the line despite no exit strategy

Happy Thursday morning.

It’s Day 23 of the government shutdown. There’s no resolution to the crisis in sight. We will have James Blair, the White House deputy chief of staff, on Fly Out Day today. Subscribe to our YouTube channel.

The Senate is scheduled to vote today on Sen. Ron Johnson’s (R-Wis.) bill to pay “excepted” federal employees who’ve been forced to work without pay during the shutdown. Democrats are likely to filibuster the measure, believing it gives President Donald Trump and OMB Director Russ Vought too much authority over who to pay — or not to pay.

This is a tough vote for Senate Democrats, who will come under heavy criticism from Republicans for blocking a bill paying federal workers who obviously should be getting paid. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated he’ll continue bringing these sorts of one-off bills to the floor to try to pummel Democrats.

Democrats plan to offer two bills of their own today from Sens. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Gary Peters (D-Mich.) to counter the Johnson measure. Each senator is serving as a co-sponsor for the other’s bill.

News: Van Hollen’s bill would pay all federal employees throughout the shutdown and bar any more layoffs by OMB. Peters’ narrower proposal would pay all federal employees up through the day the bill is enacted.

Democrats plan to offer both measures under unanimous consent before the vote on Johnson’s bill. Republicans will object, but it’ll give Democratic leaders an alternative to the GOP bill.

We’ll note that hundreds of thousands of federal employees — some of them already on food lines — will miss a paycheck on Friday.

Senators will convene at 12:30 p.m. for a rare bipartisan lunch, which was scheduled well before the shutdown. Then they’ll head home for the weekend and return on Monday.

For comparison, the House hasn’t been here since Sept. 19.

Senate Dems in the spotlight. We want to focus this morning on the mood inside the Senate Democratic Caucus.

First, on the politics of the shutdown, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has gotten pilloried for telling us in an interview that “every day gets better” for Democrats. Republicans point to the remark as evidence that Schumer is focused on scoring political points while Americans suffer through the shutdown.

Yet it’s clear that Schumer has dramatically improved his standing within his caucus, especially after the March funding debacle. No Senate Democrats are publicly criticizing him. Plus, Democrats have elevated health care as a central issue for the 2026 midterms, an issue they feel exceedingly comfortable focusing on.

At the same time, some Democratic senators are anxious over the fact that there appears to be no clear escape hatch from this three-week-long shutdown. But in many ways, that’s not the point. Schumer deliberately hasn’t spelled out an endgame for Democrats, even in private. Instead, he’s letting the daily shutdown impacts plus public sentiment drive him, said sources close to the New York Democrat.

Naturally, this has led to some uneasiness within the caucus. According to more than a half-dozen Democratic senators, fewer and fewer colleagues are speaking up during caucus meetings. That’s a reflection of a few different dynamics, including the fact that many are afraid of crossing the party’s base and Schumer. Yet Democrats say they remain overwhelmingly behind the minority leader.

As for public sentiment, that seems to be on Democrats’ side — for now. But there’s no doubt that Americans are hurting. Federal employees, including senators’ own aides, aren’t getting paid. Essential services have been halted. WIC and SNAP are at risk (see below). There are growing problems with staffing for air traffic controllers. Farmers and small businesses aren’t getting loans.

Now let’s talk about Trump. The president is letting Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson run the shutdown, as well as top aides like Vought and Stephen Miller, the deputy White House chief of staff. Trump has made clear he doesn’t want to negotiate with Democrats until the shutdown is over.

Trump is even leaving the country for a trip to Asia on Friday night, his second foreign trip since the shutdown began. No other president would dare to take a foreign trip during a shutdown.

Yet that’s not stopping Democrats from continuing to insist that a Trump-facilitated negotiation is the only path to reopening the government — and that Trump will eventually feel pressure to do so.

“Trump is the off-ramp,” Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) said. “If he says to his Republican leaders in Congress, ‘Fix this,’ it’ll happen.”

“Donald Trump can ignore the American people for a long time, but not forever. The only solution is Trump,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) added.

When we noted Trump’s posture to Sen. Brian Schatz, the Hawaii Democrat responded: “If you don’t like the president’s position, just wait a few hours.”

The implication here is that Trump constantly changes his mind and will eventually see the light when it comes to the Obamacare subsidies. Schatz insisted Democrats shouldn’t shift their position until a negotiation has started.

But Democrats’ plan of trying to bring Trump into the fold simply hasn’t worked. Trump has also made things easier for Democrats by removing key pain points like paying members of the military.

Democrats say they’re prepared to ride it out — at least through Nov. 1.

Nov. 1 is a key date not only because of missed paychecks or WIC-SNAP funding. It’s also the start of open enrollment for health-care plans, which Democrats believe will turn up the heat on Republicans over rising premium costs. Alternatively, Democrats could use the start of open enrollment to declare victory and end the shutdown.

The Nov. 4 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey — Democrats are favored in both — plus the California redistricting referendum will also play into the shutdown endgame.

— Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan and Max Cohen

Today at 8:30 a.m. ET we’ll sit down with Reps. Morgan Griffith (R-Va.) and Diana DeGette (D-Colo.) to discuss the news of the day and their efforts to advance policy for cancer prevention and early detection. There’s still time to RSVP!

SHUTDOWN CONSEQUENCES

SNAP and other federal programs begin to shut down

The White House has tried to make the shutdown painless for most Americans.

But a world of pain is about to start.

A number of states have announced that they’ll begin shutting down SNAP and other benefits due to the government shutdown, cutting off key safety nets for families in need.

Around 41 million Americans use SNAP benefits to purchase food. This should be a major pressure point in the now 23-day government shutdown.

Broken down. California’s Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom announced this week that CalFresh, which provides food benefits to 5.5 million Americans, would run out of money if the shutdown continued past today.

In Texas, the state government announced that the 3.4 million people who get SNAP in the state won’t receive it if the shutdown continues past Oct. 27.

The Alaska Department of Health announced that the federal government “has directed states to stop the issuance of … SNAP benefits for the month of November due to insufficient funds. This means that Alaskans may not receive SNAP benefits for November, even if they are authorized to receive them.” More than 66,000 Alaskans — 8% of the state’s population — receive SNAP benefits.

The New York Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance said that the applications for the Home Energy Assistance Program are “delayed until further notice.” SNAP “could be delayed” if the shutdown continues into November. Nearly 3 million New Yorkers receive SNAP.

In Pennsylvania, the state government said that “because Republicans in Washington D.C., failed to pass a federal budget, causing the federal government shutdown, November 2025 SNAP benefits cannot be paid. Starting October 16, SNAP benefits will not be paid until the federal government shutdown ends and funds are released to PA.”

Washington State, which has 905,000 SNAP recipients, warned that food benefits will halt Oct. 31.

In Colorado, the Department of Human Services said the state “is unable to issue the approximately $120 million of November SNAP benefits to clients until the federal government restores funding.” Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, is asking the state legislature for $10 million for food banks to try to make up for the shortfall. Colorado has 614,000 residents on SNAP.

Arkansas, which has 239,748 residents on SNAP, announced Wednesday that beneficiaries “should prepare for a possible delay or disruption in November benefits if the federal government shutdown continues into next month.”

– Jake Sherman

RED LIGHT REDISTRICT

Redistricting push hits roadblocks in state legislatures

The nationwide push to redraw congressional maps is running into a troubling dynamic: strong-willed state legislatures.

President Donald Trump started an arms race to reshape the entire House landscape before the midterms, and Democrats are scrambling to keep pace. But the power of the redistricting pen lies with state lawmakers, who have their own parochial interests and power structures.

That dynamic was on full display this week as Indiana State Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray, a Republican, declared that there was insufficient support for redistricting in his GOP caucus. Shortly after that, a Black Illinois Senate leader cast doubt on House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ push to get a new map in that state.

This issue is especially acute for Democrats, who are also facing resistance in the Maryland General Assembly

Let’s walk through the high-profile fights:

Illinois. The Illinois Black Senate Caucus issued a public warning to Jeffries and other Democrats advocating for redistricting.

The group won’t back any new map that dilutes the Black vote in any historically Black district. The message was delivered by state Sen. Willie Preston (D), the group’s chair, following a meeting on Wednesday.

That session included Black Illinois lawmakers and members of the congressional delegation, as well as Reps. Jonathan Jackson (D-Ill.) and Danny Davis (D-Ill.), Preston said.

“We want to make certain that we support Leader Jeffries and his efforts to try to push back and repel Donald Trump from stealing the election,” Preston said. “However, we cannot concede any dilution of the Black community and Black political power.”

Districts held by Jackson, Davis and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) are historically Black seats. They are between 43% and 50% Black.

Two of the seats are open. Davis is retiring while Kelly is running for Senate. Preston is running to succeed Kelly.

The clock is against Democrats here. Illinois’ filing deadline is Nov. 3, and candidates are already circulating petitions to make the ballot.

Indiana. Bray’s announcement, via a spokesperson, that there was significant resistance to redistricting started a firestorm.

It triggered quick blowback from Trump World and threats to ratchet up the political pressure on those seen as thwarting Trump’s goals. The question now is just how painful this will get.

The challenge for Trump allies is that only some of Indiana’s Republican state senators are up for reelection next year. Bray, for one, isn’t up until 2028.

But the pressure could still get intense. The White House has leaned heavily on Indiana to redistrict. Trump has a lot of money to spend running TV ads in Indiana and his political operation could easily recruit challengers for those who are up.

The next move will likely come from Republican Gov. Mike Braun. He’s still expected to call a special session for November to pass a new congressional map, essentially daring Bray and others to oppose it.

Maryland. Democrats are still optimistic that their legislature will redraw its congressional map to boot Rep. Andy Harris, the state’s lone Republican versus seven Democrats.

Democratic Gov. Wes Moore also said Maryland will look at redrawing its map if other states do so.

But progress has been slow. The Maryland Senate remains an obstacle. State Senate President Bill Ferguson, a Democrat, remains skeptical of redistricting, according to multiple sources close to the process.

The delegation has met to discuss the proposal. Several key members, including Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), have signaled their support.

“I am making myself clear to all of my Democratic colleagues that this is ethically, morally and politically indicated by the struggle to defend democracy in America,” Raskin said in an interview with us on Wednesday night.

— Ally Mutnick, Laura Weiss and John Bresnahan

Tech: Paul warns Thune on CISA

Senate Homeland Security Committee Chair Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said he’d block any attempt by Senate leaders to reauthorize a liability shield that companies rely on when sharing cyberthreat data with the government.

The promise to gum up any reauthorization effort came after Senate Majority Leader John Thune quietly maneuvered a bill designed to resume the legal protections onto the chamber’s calendar.

“We will object at every stage of the way,” Paul assured us this week.

A wide swath of companies, from big tech firms to other large corporations that might hold data at risk from hackers, are desperate to restart the Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act after it lapsed on Sept. 30.

But Paul has repeatedly objected to unanimous consent requests from his committee’s ranking member, Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), to pass a reauthorization of the liability protections.

Paul has been adamant that the legislation should limit the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s ability to have information online taken down, saying it stifles free speech. The agency is largely unconnected to the liability shield, but the two share the acronym CISA.

However, Thune used Rule XIV of the Senate on Oct. 8 to place a new Peters CISA bill on the calendar. With the action, Thune will be allowed to call up the bill for consideration on the floor, circumventing Paul’s committee.

Placing a bill on the calendar doesn’t automatically mean it will receive a floor vote soon. Paul’s commitment to block unanimous consent requests means Thune would have to burn a lot of floor time to advance the bill.

“It’s not always that easy to pass stuff,” Paul said. “It takes time and effort.”

Paul didn’t mention Thune by name and didn’t answer when asked if he viewed the GOP leader’s actions as teaming up with a Democrat to go around a Republican committee chair.

The other CISA. We also asked if Paul had any updates on Sean Plankey, President Donald Trump’s nominee to serve as CISA (the agency) administrator.

Paul’s committee advanced Plankey’s nomination in July, but there’s been no action since then despite Thune moving a massive backlog of nominees. The chair said he had no update on the timeline.

— Ben Brody and Diego Areas Munhoz

THE CAMPAIGN

Scoop: The Justice Democrats are endorsing former Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) to return to Congress. Bush is seeking a rematch against Rep. Wesley Bell (D-Mo.) after their blockbuster 2024 contest.

Bush — whose tenure in the House was marred by controversy — was the first ever Justice Democrat-backed candidate when she ran in 2017. She was defeated by Bell in the Democratic primary in Aug. 2024. The pro-Israel group AIPAC spent millions of dollars to help beat her.

North Carolina. Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.) is expected to announce his decision this morning on whether to seek reelection in his current district, the 3rd, or switch to the new 1st District.

North Carolina’s new map, which the GOP drew to pick up one seat in the state, made major changes to Murphy’s seat, taking away most of the coast and Outer Banks. Murphy has been considering switching to the new 1st District, where he also has a home. But the White House rejected the idea.

Illinois. Former Rep. Joe Walsh (R-Ill.) is endorsing Democrat Kevin Morrison in Illinois’ 8th District primary. Morrison is running against former Rep. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.).

Walsh beat Bean in 2010. He recently joined the Democratic Party.

— Laura Weiss and Ally Mutnick

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