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THE TOP
The big rush: GOP sets Nov. 13 for leadership showdowns

Happy Wednesday morning. There are just six days until Election Day.
House and Senate Republicans are gearing up to move straight from Nov. 5 to their leadership elections, a quick turnaround as numerous races across the country could still be undecided.
Senate Republican leadership formally announced Tuesday that their internal party election will be conducted on Nov. 13. And House Republican leadership has scheduled its candidate forum for Nov. 13 at 9 a.m., with their election at 2:30 p.m.
Oddly enough, House Republicans will conduct the leadership election at the Hyatt Regency on Capitol Hill, not in the Capitol or the Longworth Building. Senate Republicans are very likely to hold their elections in the Old Senate Chamber, the traditional site.
Senate side. Sen. Mitch McConnell’s historic run as Senate GOP leader is ending soon. Now the issue is who will replace him, and how many votes they’ll have in the next Congress.
Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.), John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) are all running for the post. Thune — currently the minority whip — is seen as the frontrunner, but the outlook for this race is unclear. Most GOP senators have withheld any public endorsement so far.
Details of the election process still have to be worked out. Senate Republican Conference Chair John Barrasso — who is unchallenged in his bid for whip — will oversee the proceedings.
We expect a wide-ranging discussion involving Thune, Cornyn and Scott. This could include a review of proposals from Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) to dramatically rein in the power of the GOP leader. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) has led the charge against the Lee plan. We’ll see how far conservatives can push this issue.
The other key question is what happens in contested Senate elections and who will be allowed to vote. Only senators who will be part of the 119th Congress can cast votes, but GOP leaders hope to have all the candidates in undecided races come to Capitol Hill that week.
Which leads us to the question of what will happen to Sen. J.D. Vance (Ohio), the Republican vice presidential candidate. If the White House race still isn’t decided by then — a nightmare — will Vance vote in the Senate leadership elections? Vance would be part of the next Congress if he and Donald Trump lose. We’ll see what happens.
There’s one other key leadership race — who will replace Barrasso as Senate GOP Conference chair. Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) are running. Cotton is favored, but he could also end up serving in a Trump administration.
House side. Let’s start with this question for House Republicans: Can they even hold their leadership elections beginning Nov. 13?
House GOP leaders — most importantly Speaker Mike Johnson — believe they can.
Yet if 2022 is any indication, the most competitive House races in California will take a long time to be called. For instance: Rep. John Duarte’s (R-Calif.) win over Democrat Adam Gray wasn’t official until the first week of December.
A large percentage of Californians vote by mail and the process to count those votes takes significant time in the state.
House election experts on both sides expect the universe of outcomes to range anywhere from a GOP majority of five votes to a Democratic majority of five votes. That intensely small range of outcomes means that the critical California House races — in the 13th, 22nd, 27th, 41st and 45th — might be the difference. There are also tight races in the Golden State’s 47th and 49th districts.
It’s still likely, however, that we will know a good deal about the House map on election Night. Consider this: there are two competitive seats — the 2nd and 7th Districts — in Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m.
Polls close at 7:30 p.m. in North Carolina’s 1st District, Ohio’s 9th District and Ohio’s 13th District. Polls close at 8 p.m. in Maine, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, where there are plenty of toss-up races.
If Democrats defend Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine), Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) and Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.), then the path to a GOP majority significantly narrows.
The House GOP is also going to consider changes to the party’s rules.
One such proposed change, suggested by the leadership, would seek to clarify who controls the House if a speaker is booted out of the job. Here’s the change:
In the event of a vacancy in the Office of Speaker, the Member acting as Speaker pro tempore … may, pending the election of a Speaker Designate by the Republican Conference, exercise all authorities of the Office of Speaker as may be necessary and appropriate to the end of such election.
This isn’t an earth-shaking move, but it does reflect the reality that the GOP deposed a speaker this Congress and Republicans are looking to clarify their rules to reflect that.
The rules also mandate that the chair announce the vote total for leadership elections — something that’s not currently in writing but rather is at the discretion of the chair.
Here are the proposed changes and the explanations. These documents were sent to GOP lawmakers this week.
– Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Max Cohen
Happening tomorrow! We’ll sit down with Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) at 9:30 a.m. ET to discuss the news of the day and how 5G supports America’s global competitiveness. Stay with us after for Brown Bag Live with Jake Sherman and Punchbowl News reporters Max Cohen, John Bresnahan and Mica Soellner to discuss the political landscape ahead of the 2024 elections and the busy lame-duck calendar. There’s still time to RSVP to join us in person.
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BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE
House Dems desperate for a do-over on Long Island
FREEPORT, N.Y. – When Democrat Laura Gillen was running last cycle for a New York seat that had been in Democratic hands for more than 25 years, she warned party leaders the race was tight and asked for help. But her pleas fell on deaf ears, and Gillen ended up losing her contest by nearly four points.
Democrats aren’t making the same mistake this time around.
The party is going all out to win back New York’s 4th District, currently represented by embattled GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito. Situated on the south shore of Long Island, it’s the bluest district currently held by a Republican and went for President Joe Biden by almost 15 points in 2020.
“It’s a totally different race for me,” Gillen told us during a campaign stop. “There is acknowledgment that Washington kind of took their eye off the ball on this seat last cycle.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, himself a New Yorker, campaigned here last week, while outside groups are spending huge sums of money to boost Gillen on the airwaves. Recent polling shows Gillen leading D’Esposito.
Shift in strategy: Gillen, a former Hempstead town supervisor, got into the race much earlier than in 2022. She outraised her opponent by $1.45 million and knocked on more than 150,000 doors. And Gillen has retooled her playbook, tackling immigration and the economy head-on.
On the campaign trail, Gillen says undocumented migrants need to be dealt with humanely while also arguing the taxpayers shouldn’t bear the financial burden.
Gillen also wrote a letter to Biden calling for executive action on the border and assailed Republicans for the implosion of a bipartisan Senate deal earlier this year.
“When it came time to try to solve the border crisis, [D’Esposito] sat on his hands,” Gillen said.
D’Esposito pushed back, saying that he voted for a stricter House GOP border security bill, H.R. 2, although that’s gone nowhere in the Senate.
Economic relief has also been central to Gillen’s pitch. She met with a number of Hispanic-owned businesses on Tuesday. During stops that included a Dominican restaurant and furniture shop, Gillen promised to fight for small businesses, calling them the “backbone of the community.”
GOP view: Republicans aren’t giving up hope. Speaker Mike Johnson will be in the district later today while other GOP leaders will swoop in closer to Election Day.
D’Esposito, a former NYPD detective, has focused his message on securing the border and restoring the state and local tax deduction. D’Esposito argues that the issues of immigration, crime and the economy have all become intertwined — an environment he believes benefits Republicans.
“What we’re seeing across New York state has a lot of people fed up,” D’Esposito told us at a campaign event.
D’Esposito also has gone on offense over abortion, vowing not to support a national abortion ban and signing on to a Democratic bill to federally protect IVF.
But there have been surprises in the final stretch that could hurt him. The New York Times reported that D’Esposito gave part-time jobs in his district office to his fiance’s daughter and a woman he was allegedly having an affair with.
D’Esposito insists his hiring practices were above board, and he dismissed the reporting as “a political hit piece.”
More recently, D’Esposito attended former President Donald Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden where a comedian made racist jokes about Puerto Rico. D’Esposito, who was part of Trump’s motorcade to the rally, distanced himself from the remarks.
Gillen said it’s not enough.
“[D’Esposito] can say, ‘I have a Puerto Rican mother.’ That doesn’t say that it was wrong, that doesn’t condemn using that kind of hateful, racist speech,” she told us.
– Melanie Zanona

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S-3, West Front to merge
News: S-3 Group and West Front Strategies will merge, creating a new GOP leadership powerhouse ahead of the next Congress.
S-3 and West Front, both of which have a pile of blue-chip clients, will have more than $20 million in combined revenue this year, according to lobbying disclosure forms and both firms’ leadership.
S-3 currently represents H&R Block, Doordash, the Business Roundtable, Micron, Humana, Meta, Google, Duke Energy, LVMH, the NFL, Koch Industries and JPMorgan Chase. West Front’s clients include Comcast, Microsoft and Walgreens. Both firms represent Boeing, T-Mobile, the Consumer Technology Association and RTX.
The firms will combine under one brand — S-3 — and John Scofield, a founder of S-3, will serve as the combined firms’ managing partner. West Front’s Ashley Davis and the rest of their team are joining S-3.
S-3’s roots are in the Appropriations Committee. Scofield worked on the panel in the House. But the center of gravity on the Hill has shifted to the leadership, and the combined firm is hoping to corner that space.
The new firm will have a lot of leadership firepower. Matt Bravo, a partner at S-3, was a top aide to House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, as was Marty Reiser. S-3’s Mike Ference worked for former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. West Front’s Shimmy Stein was also an aide to Cantor.
S-3 is also bipartisan. It employs Michael Long, who worked for former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Kevin Casey, who was policy director to former House Democratic Caucus Chair Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.)
In merging with West Front, S-3 will now have Malloy McDaniel, who worked in the leadership for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, as well as Kristi Remington, who served as deputy assistant attorney general in the Bush administration.
S-3 also has branched out to digital communications and management, something West Front doesn’t currently have. That practice, led by Hastie Afkhami, speaks to “staff and members in the digital space,” Scofield said.
“With Ashley and her team coming on, they have access to that sort of full flight of services,” Scofield said.
– Jake Sherman
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HOUSE DEMS
Auchincloss goes big on gun violence prevention this cycle
News: Rep. Jake Auchincloss’ (D-Mass.) newly revamped leadership PAC — Beyond Thoughts and Prayers — has contributed over $900,000 to House Democrats this cycle.
Auchincloss’ PAC has given to every DCCC Frontliner and Red-to-Blue candidate in his bid to build a “gun violence prevention majority.” The Massachusetts Democrat’s top priority in the campaign world is backing candidates who share his vision to reduce firearm deaths.
Auchincloss has given or raised over $100,000 for Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), a Frontliner who has become a passionate voice for gun safety after a mass shooting in Golden’s district.
Looking forward to the next Congress, Auchincloss said he hopes a potential Democratic majority quickly turns to gun violence issues.
Democrats from Vice President Kamala Harris on down have been more open this cycle in talking about gun safety proposals in their campaigns, a topic many used to shy away from for fear of Republican criticism. We observed Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) talking passionately about gun safety as part of her Senate campaign.
Auchincloss singled out universal background checks, implementing safe storage and a federal assault weapons ban as his top legislative goals. Auchincloss also called for the repeal of a 2005 law that shielded gun manufacturers from liability after shootings.
Since winning election in 2020, Auchincloss has raised or given $1.4 million to Dems. He’s also chipped in $205,000 in DCCC dues, over his allotted amount.
— Max Cohen
… AND THERE’S MORE
First in Punchbowl News: Arshi Siddiqui, a longtime lobbyist and aide to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is launching a new firm, Bellwether Government Relations.
Siddiqui’s new venture comes just in time for the 2025 tax fight — a policy area that she’s long worked on. Bellwether plans to go beyond tax too with a “modern approach,” working on a variety of different strategies and policy areas including tech, trade, health care, entertainment and telecomm.
Siddiqui has worked on contracts for big-name companies and is a significant figure in Democratic circles. She’s been lobbying for clients like the Business Roundtable, American Airlines, Micron Technology and Comcast at Akin, where she worked for the last 14-plus years.
Before moving to K Street, Siddiqui was senior policy adviser and counsel for Pelosi — working to land some big legislative projects like the Affordable Care Act — and served as Ways and Means Committee counsel for former Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.).
— Laura Weiss
MOMENTS
ALL TIMES EASTERN
8:30 a.m.
The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the third-quarter gross domestic product estimate.
10 a.m.
President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.
10:15 a.m.
Biden will hold a meeting on his administration’s efforts to support Hispanic-serving institutions.
11:30 a.m.
Biden will hold a bilateral meeting with President Nikos Christodoulides of Cyprus.
12:30 p.m.
Vice President Kamala Harris will deliver remarks at a campaign event in Raleigh, N.C.
1:30 p.m.
Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre will brief.
4:35 p.m.
Harris will deliver remarks at a campaign event in Harrisburg, Pa.
6 p.m.
Biden and First Lady Jill Biden will host local children for trick-or-treating.
9:30 p.m.
Harris will deliver remarks at a campaign event in Madison, Wis.
CLIPS
NYT
“Trump and His Allies Link Biden’s ‘Garbage’ Comment to 2016 ‘Deplorables’ Remark”
– Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman
WSJ
“Trump Treasury Contender Pledges to Work With Musk to Slash Spending”
– Brian Schwartz
FT
“Trump rally’s Puerto Rico slur lands with a thud in Pennsylvania”
– James Politi in Allentown, Pa.
AP
“Man serving 30 years for attacking Nancy Pelosi’s husband gets a life term on state charges”
– Janie Har in San Francisco
Bloomberg
“Israel Eyes Deal to End Lebanon Combat After Weakening Hezbollah”
– Dan Williams
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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.

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