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IN THIS EDITION

House Democrats dominate airwaves in the final stretch

Clark, the ‘Roe Warrior,’ looks to make history

Trump and Senate Republicans: A 2024 evolution

Jason Smith hits the road for Republicans

ICYMI: Warner talks election security, spectrum and 5G

THE TOP

House Democrats dominate airwaves in the final stretch

Happy Friday morning. Happy November! There are four days until the election.

All cycle, House Democrats have bragged about their fundraising advantage over the GOP. In the home stretch of the campaign, that financial upper hand is paying dividends in a major way.

In 22 of the 25 toss-up House races, Democrats outspent Republicans on the airwaves in the month of October. This is a wild stat.

We had our friends at AdImpact run an analysis of all spending in the most competitive House campaigns from Oct. 1 to Oct. 29. This includes investment from individual campaigns, House Majority PAC and the Congressional Leadership Fund, the NRCC and DCCC, in addition to other outside groups. The disparity was stark.

Across the 25 tightest House races, Democrats have cumulatively spent $35 million more on ads in the past month than Republicans have. For those counting at home, Democratic groups have spent more than $173 million while GOP groups have spent nearly $138 million, per AdImpact.

During a stretch when voters are the most focused on what’s happening in the election, it’s an undoubted boost for Democrats seeking to flip the House.

It also shows once again the vast financial resources that are poured into modern House races. These totals don’t include Senate races or the presidential contest, which may overlap the House campaigns.

The Democratic advantage: The top five widest spending margins in the races from the past month favor Democrats.

In Washington’s 3rd District, groups backing Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez spent $4.1 million more on ads than pro-Joe Kent groups. Organizations backing Democrat Eugene Vindman outspent supporters of Republican Derrick Anderson by $3.8 million in Virginia’s 7th District.

There was a $3.3 million Democratic spending advantage in both New York’s 4th and 19th Districts, where vulnerable GOP Reps. Anthony D’Esposito and Marc Molinaro are running against Democrats Laura Gillen and Josh Riley. And in Arizona’s 1st District, Democrat Amish Shah had the advantage of $2.7 million over groups supporting Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.).

In 15 of the 25 toss-up races, Democrats enjoy a spending lead of $1 million or more.

The only toss-up races where the GOP has the spending advantage are California’s 22nd District, Iowa’s 3rd District and Nebraska’s 2nd District. GOP Reps. David Valadao (Calif.), Zach Nunn (Iowa) and Don Bacon (Neb.) respectively are the incumbents here.

The race with the tightest margin is the matchup between Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) and Derek Tran in California’s 45th District, where pro-Tran forces have spent around $50,000 more in the past month. Another close margin is Nunn’s lead over pro-Lanon Baccam forces, which was roughly $100,000 in October.

The Tran-Steel matchup was also the most expensive race based on ad spending in October, combining for $23 million in total investment. The second most expensive race was the $20.3 million spent in California’s 27th District, where pro-George Whitesides groups spent $11.3 million and organizations supporting Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) poured in $9 million.

Michigan’s 7th District came in at the third priciest with $19 million spent last month, with Republican Tom Barrett getting $9.2 million in support and Democrat Curtis Hertel receiving $9.8 million.

A disclaimer: Money isn’t everything in politics. Just because House Democrats have the advantage on the air doesn’t mean they’re a shoo-in to win a majority. While Democrats are seen as the slim favorites in November, few election observers expect either party to secure a majority of more than five House seats. This is a very closely contested election and could go either way.

Plus, this data doesn’t encompass the final week of ad spending, where things could ratchet up even more.

But the ad spending advantage is the culmination of the impressive job done by the DCCC, House Majority PAC and individual Democratic campaigns this cycle. Democrats have crushed their House GOP counterparts in the money game this cycle and are now reaping the rewards.

What voters are seeing: We’ve chronicled how Republicans and Democrats are messaging on the air this cycle. In the race’s final weeks, GOP ad-makers are turning to slamming Democrats on transgender issues. Democrats, for their part, are taking a page from their 2022 playbook by flooding the zone with abortion rights attacks on Republicans.

Crypto cash: Outside of the typical groups spending in the House battleground, the pro-crypto Fairshake PAC is a major player. The PAC spent $5.5 million on ads last month backing GOP Reps. Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Ore.), Valadao, Steel and Nunn. The group also supported one Democrat: Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola.

— Max Cohen

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ON THE TRAIL

Clark, the ‘Roe Warrior,’ looks to make history

House Minority Whip Katherine Clark doesn’t like to make predictions.

But the six-term lawmaker feels “very good” about where Democrats are heading into the final few days of this election cycle.

“You know, the momentum is all on our side,” Clark said in an interview this week.

Clark has a lot at stake here. As part of the “New Three” along with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar, Clark helped take over from the legendary triumvirate of Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn at the start of 2023. A Democratic victory would make Clark the House majority leader, giving her say over committees and the floor agenda. She’d be the first woman to ever hold the post.

“Listen, I always think that it is important that we keep breaking these barriers,” Clark told us. “I very much look forward to having the opportunity to be majority leader with our first woman president.”

While praising President Joe Biden, Clark also said tapping Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee helped boost Democrats’ chances of winning the House.

“There is an electricity and an excitement about Kamala Harris that’s absolutely going to benefit House races,” Clark added.

During this cycle, Clark has traveled to 27 states and raised more than $33 million, per sources close to the Massachusetts Democrat.

Just this week, Clark was in Arizona, Nevada and Colorado, campaigning with Democratic Reps. Susie Lee (Nev.), Dina Titus (Nev.), Steven Horsford (Nev.), Greg Stanton (Ariz.), Brittany Pettersen (Colo.), Yadira Caraveo (Colo,) and Joe Neguse (Colo.), as well as candidates Yassamin Ansari and Amish Shah.

With abortion being a hugely important national issue — and one Democrats have focused on heavily since the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision striking down Roe v. Wade — Clark has become House Democrats’ leading voice on the issue. Clark, privately dubbed the “Roe Warrior” by some Democrats, has repeatedly brought up on the campaign trail how she needed a medical procedure years ago following a miscarriage.

“This issue of reproductive freedom is one that resonates with people,” Clark said.

Clark said she hears this discussion “everywhere I go,” from college campuses to roundtables with both urban and suburban voters nationwide. Clark asserted “there’s a connection at gut level with voters across the country” on this topic.

Yet with the election so close — and the outcome so unpredictable — we asked Clark whether House Democrats could win if Trump wins the presidency. Clark believes they can.

“I think we are going to win in districts that Trump is going to win. But again, our focus right now is closing this out,” Clark responded.

Could House Democrats find common ground with Trump on issues such as government funding, taxes, the debt limit, Ukraine and other huge topics facing Congress and the next president?

“We are always going to put the people’s voices in finding solutions first,” Clark said. “I believe in the American people. And they are going to vote for a government that works for them, not a government that works for Donald Trump.”

– John Bresnahan

ON THE TRAIL

Trump and Senate Republicans: A 2024 evolution

HENDERSON, Nev. — Fifteen months ago, Sam Brown was running in a Senate GOP primary against far-right loyalists of former President Donald Trump — with the backing of top Republicans in Washington.

In a lengthy interview at the time, Brown tiptoed around any topic that involved Trump while Brown’s rivals were running ads accusing him of not being sufficiently loyal to the former president.

For example, when we asked Brown if he’d be comfortable sharing the ticket with Trump in 2024, he didn’t answer directly.

All of that was ancient history here Thursday with Brown addressing the MAGA faithful at a Trump rally as he tries to topple Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.).

“President Trump will secure the border,” Brown told the crowd. “President Trump will take care of our communities. President Trump will be a president of law and order.”

A new day: Brown’s strategic shift from the early days of the 2024 campaign to now shouldn’t be a surprise. NRSC Chair Steve Daines got Trump on board in the primaries and avoided a repeat of the 2022 cycle.

Yet it underscores the prevailing view of Senate GOP leaders that the fates of Trump and of their candidates in the presidential battlegrounds are intertwined.

“As President Trump’s numbers continue to go up, so do Sam Brown’s,” said Senate GOP Conference Chair John Barrasso, who campaigned with Brown here. “This is now a very close election. You can see it in the polls. More and more money is coming here now.”

Brown and his counterparts in the Midwest battlegrounds — all top NRSC recruits — are hugging Trump tighter than ever before.

“What we had when President Trump was [in office] — lowering taxes, cutting the economic friction that regulations pose, securing our border, being strong internationally,” Brown told us in an interview here.

Like other GOP challengers, Brown has lagged significantly behind Trump in the polls. That’s at least in part due to name ID. That gap was always going to narrow as time went on.

But Trump’s visit at this late stage is critical for Brown, who’s gaining momentum amid Republicans’ surprising early-voting advantage — a practice the GOP actively discouraged here two years ago. They lost that Senate race.

Battleground Nevada: Just a few weeks ago, it seemed Republicans had narrowed their pickup opportunities to the Rust Belt. But the early-voting numbers sparked a big cash infusion, and GOP senators are returning to the Silver State in the final stretch.

On Thursday, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris held dueling rallies in the Las Vegas area within a few hours of each other. Nevada has gotten redder, and Rosen has campaigned as a pragmatic problem-solver who isn’t afraid to buck her party.

But Rosen, too, is tying herself to the top of the ticket. She wants to increase voter turnout, especially among union workers in the state’s hospitality industry who were long the backbone of the late Sen. Harry Reid‘s (D-Nev.) political machine.

“Sam Brown is only going to do what one person tells him to do — what Donald Trump tells him to do,” Rosen said at the Harris rally in North Las Vegas.

— Andrew Desiderio

THE CAMPAIGN X TAX WORLD

Jason Smith hits the road for Republicans

STAFFORD, Va. — House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) is wrapping up a busy October on the road for Republicans.

Smith is campaigning this week with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, his latest swing with a member of the House GOP leadership.

In an interview before rallying voters in one of the closest House races here in Virginia’s 7th District, Smith told us he views his political work as a continuation of how he’s approached his job for 11 years.

So let’s talk about why Smith’s leadership travel matters now.

Smith is working to keep building relationships and trust ahead of the debate over extending the Trump tax cuts. No matter the election outcome, that would strengthen Smith’s hand in the upcoming negotiations.

“I want everyone to know that I’m the resource that can help them,” Smith said. “And whenever we try to thread the needle to pass this tax bill, it’s going to be a conference effort.”

Then there’s the specter of Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.), who narrowly lost the gavel to Smith two years ago. There have been some murmurs about Buchanan challenging Smith again. Smith said he doesn’t believe that will happen.

Here’s more:

Smith added that if he did face a challenge, he’d win.

“I won it when it was really competitive in a three-way race. I have a track record for two years now,” Smith said.

Smith ran for the gavel partly on a promise to be a powerhouse fundraiser and campaigner. He’s delivering.

The numbers: Smith has campaigned for more than 30 Republican members or candidates in over 20 states this month — including stops with Scalise, Speaker Mike Johnson and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer. Smith also traveled with former President Donald Trump over the last week.

Then there’s fundraising. Smith is a top conference donor for the NRCC this cycle, hauling in $2.75 million. He held fundraisers for 123 Republican members and candidates that raised $6 million, including $1.4 million from Smith as direct contributions.

Smith also told us his D.C. fundraising dinners for Ways and Means members brought in between $76,000 and $165,000 each.

— Laura Weiss

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

ICYMI: Warner talks election security, spectrum and 5G

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) joined us for a conversation Thursday where he discussed the security concerns around the U.S. elections. He also called for the urgent reauthorization of the FCC’s spectrum auction authority and for the revival of the Affordable Connectivity Program.

If you missed the event, you can watch the full video here.

— Elvina Nawaguna

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