Tom Emmer on 2026, health care and more

IN THIS EDITION

Tom Emmer’s view on the shutdown, health care and 2026

3 dozen House members have already called it quits

Swalwell mulls bid for governor

The Vault: Painful penny politics

ICYMI: PBN x TribFest 2025

THE TOP

Tom Emmer’s view on the shutdown, health care and 2026

Happy Friday morning.

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer was our guest on Thursday’s Fly Out Day. We’ve now had all the top elected members of the House Republican and Democratic leadership on the show, which posts every Thursday on YouTube.

Let’s examine Emmer in the context of the broader House GOP leadership.

Speaker Mike Johnson has reached the pinnacle of congressional power, although there’s no telling how Johnson’s tenure will go. Two of the last three Republican speakers — Kevin McCarthy and John Boehner — were forced out. Johnson, who conservatives also tried to dump, has President Donald Trump’s full support, and that’s exceedingly valuable in today’s GOP.

Then there’s Emmer and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, two very different figures with different styles and worldviews.

Scalise is a veteran vote counter who has survived the sometimes ugly leadership wars of the McCarthy, Boehner and Paul Ryan eras.

Emmer, first elected to the House in 2014, came up through the NRCC, mostly building his political identity in the wake of Republicans losing the House in 2018. Emmer led the NRCC for two cycles, helping win the majority in 2022. He’s a sharp political mind and, as whip, should have as much interaction with rank-and-file Republicans as anyone.

We talked to Emmer about a host of challenges and opportunities that Republicans face over the next six months.

Remember that Congress is a dynamic institution. We’ve just gotten over a major crisis — the 43-day government shutdown — and are on the brink of two more legislative flashpoints. In just 47 days, enhanced Obamacare premium tax credits expire. And in 77 days, the government will run out of money again unless there’s a bipartisan funding deal.

Shut down. Let’s start briefly by looking backwards. Democrats did instigate the shutdown — there’s no doubt about that — but that argument clearly hasn’t stuck with the public. Most polling shows that voters blame Trump and Republicans for the shutdown, something that has deeply frustrated many in the GOP leadership.

“You know how I feel about polls, Jake,” Emmer said. “People use polls that they believe say what they want them to say, and people reject polls that don’t. Realistically, I think when this is all said and done, nobody wins in a shutdown.”

Emmer’s view is that the shutdown is immaterial when voters start focusing on who to support next year.

“The attention span of America is a nanosecond. We move on to whatever is the next big thing like that,” Emmer said.

The Minnesota Republican continued:

The election. OK so let’s talk about the election. Emmer’s view on 2026 is a bit different than Johnson’s. Johnson says at every opportunity he has that Republicans will keep and expand the majority next year. Emmer is a bit more measured:

Emmer told us that many of the GOP’s policies — no tax on tips, no tax on overtime and the permanency of their tax cuts — will take two years to sink into the economic picture.

“You should start feeling it next spring and next summer, and it should be improving right through,” Emmer said. “If that’s correct, yeah, we’re gonna hold the House.”

Health care. What this shutdown has guaranteed is that Republicans are going to spend the next few months trying to create their own health care proposal. Most veteran Republicans who remember the first Trump administration understand this is probably an exercise in futility.

But the Republican leadership has grown so dug in against a simple extension of the ACA tax credits that they really have no choice except to pursue some other option.

Emmer argued that “Donald Trump and Republicans are going to have to fix” the nation’s health care system. He mentioned health savings accounts and structures that would allow small businesses to pool insurance plans.

Yet the sixth-term lawmaker did allow that there may be a situation in which Congress needs to renew the credits to give certainty to the marketplace.

“We got to stop just pumping money into fat and happy health insurers at the expense of the American people’s ability to have choice, have transparency and literally have competition in the marketplace,” Emmer said.

We asked Emmer if Congress can pass a health care plan before the credits expire at the end of the year.

“Anything is possible,” Emmer said.

Funding. This is interesting. Emmer said that he hopes Congress will finish work on the FY2026 spending by the end of December. The deadline is Jan. 30.

“I would like to see us getting it done around Christmas, rather than waiting till January,” Emmer said. We’ll take the over.

Emmer added: “I would love to see that done. Are you kidding? As the whip? Do you really want me to be working at the end of January trying to find those last few votes? I’d rather be doing that right at the end of the year and get it done.”

– Jake Sherman

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THE HOUSE

3 dozen House members have already called it quits

2026 hasn’t even begun yet and some three dozen House members are already heading for the exits. That’s how unpleasant it’s become to serve in the House of Representatives these days.

Six of those members — all Democrats — are in their 70s and 80s, retiring after long tenures in politics.

But the vast majority of departing members are leaving to seek another office and continue their political careers outside of the House.

Another four, Reps. Morgan Luttrell (R-Texas), Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Jared Golden (D-Maine), are retiring relatively young, between the ages of 43 and 62.

“The thought of doing this for two more years is not appealing. I’ve got time in my life to do a third career,” Bacon said.

The disappearing middle. Bacon and Golden are two of the most prominent moderates in the House and they repeatedly survived brutal reelection battles in tough districts. These days, anyone in the middle is taking incoming from both sides in an increasingly polarized country.

“After 10 years, it’s just enough,” Bacon said. “I’ve got crazies on the right, crazies on the left.”

Golden announced his retirement last week in a long op-ed, lambasting the “increasing incivility and plain nastiness” in politics.

“I don’t fear losing,” the Maine Democrat wrote. “What has become apparent to me is that I now dread the prospect of winning.”

When asked if any of his colleagues had shared that they agreed with what he wrote, Golden said: “Many, but I’m not naming names.”

Higher ambitions. Twenty-five of the three dozen retirees are seeking another office. On the Democratic side, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) will resign next week after winning election as New Jersey’s next governor. And her colleagues in New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois and Massachusetts are leaving the House to run for Senate.

All but three of the 21 Republicans are retiring to run statewide, which is a stunning statistic. House GOP members are running for governor in Arizona, Florida, Tennessee, Michigan, Iowa, South Dakota, South Carolina, New York and Wisconsin. Other Republican members are making Senate bids in Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama, Iowa and Texas.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) is leaving his central Texas seat to run for Texas attorney general.

We’ll note that retirements aren’t unusual. No one stays in Congress forever, although it may seem that way. But the sheer number of members, especially on the GOP side, leaving safe House seats for a shot at serving in a different office is notable.

– Ally Mutnick

CALIFORNIA DREAMIN’

Swalwell mulls bid for governor

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) is considering a bid for governor of California and is expected to make a decision within the coming weeks, according to a source familiar with his plans.

The 44-year-old Swalwell was first elected to Congress in 2012, defeating longtime Rep. Pete Stark (D-Calif.). Swalwell has made a name for himself by being a vocal critic of President Donald Trump. He was a manager for the second Trump impeachment trial in 2021.

A Trump administration official, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, has referred a case to the Justice Department accusing Swalwell of mortgage fraud. Swalwell has called the charges baseless, chalking up the move as a result of his opposition to Trump.

Swalwell also clashed frequently with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a close Trump ally. McCarthy blocked Swalwell from serving on the Intelligence Committee over allegations that an alleged Chinese spy tried to target him. Swalwell denied any wrongdoing, and an investigation into the case didn’t turn up any wrongdoing by the California Democrat.

Swalwell — a seven-term House member — declined to comment on whether he’ll run for governor of the Golden State.

But a recent survey conducted by an outside group supporting the congressman showed Swalwell in fourth place. He polled better than candidates who have been in the race for months.

Republican Steve Hilton, a British-American Fox News contributor, took first place with 20%, followed by former Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) with 16% and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, with 14%. Swalwell is next with 11% of the vote.

Also in the race: Former House member and HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. In the survey, they polled at 9% and 5%, respectively.

The survey of 1,000 likely primary voters was conducted in late October by EMC Research.

The poll also asked what voters are looking for in a nominee. 77% said someone who will “stand up to Trump and Republicans to protect democratic values.” Sixty-five percent said they wanted a current elected official. A little over half, 54%, said a progressive Democrat. Fifty-four percent also said they wanted a woman, which cuts against Swalwell.

Sixty-two percent of registered Democratic voters have a favorable view of Swalwell. Sixty-four percent have a favorable view of Porter and 68% have a favorable view of Becerra.

The Democratic field for California’s governorship has been messy, to put it lightly. Porter, fresh off a failed Senate bid in 2024, is the highest-polling Democrat. But Porter has deep vulnerabilities, as evidenced by the recent video showing her yelling at a staffer during a 2021 interview.

Two billionaire self-funders could also shake up the field: Democratic megadonor Tom Steyer and developer Rick Caruso. Both are considering runs.

As usual, California’s jungle primary makes this race complicated. A splintered Democratic field is a big liability if it opens up a path for Hilton and Bianco to claim the top two slots.

Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) took himself out of contention last week.

Swalwell represents a swath of the East Bay southeast of Oakland. He has been a reliable progressive in Congress and is a close ally of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). Swalwell is a strong fundraiser and has a high nationwide name ID. The EMC Research survey showed his name ID in California was at 74%.

– Jake Sherman and Ally Mutnick

The Vault: Painful penny politics

The penny was declared dead this week at the age of 232-years-old, courtesy of the Trump administration. Now it’s Capitol Hill’s turn to pick up the tab. Because the penny hasn’t gone quietly.

Congress has been working on how to eliminate the penny for a good chunk of 2025 — particularly the House Financial Services Committee. But lawmakers and staff now find themselves scrambling to contain the fallout of a penny-less world.

Penny dread. Here’s the problem Congress is faced with: Retailers and banks have become increasingly alarmed by the penny shortage, which began roughly in September.

The Federal Reserve has stopped accepting pennies at many of its coin distribution locations. That has reduced circulation of the penny far more rapidly in the United States than policymakers and Congress anticipated.

Without pennies, retailers processing cash transactions have been faced with a choice: round prices up to the nearest nickel, or round down? The question is more complicated than you might think.

Several states prohibit retailers from charging more for cash transactions, which would prevent merchants from rounding cash transactions up. But federal laws tied to food benefits, including SNAP, prohibit participants from paying more than other consumers. Rounding cash payments down could result in SNAP customers paying more than cash customers for groceries.

Committee look. The House Financial Services Committee has been doing most of the work on Capitol Hill in this area. The panel advanced Rep. Lisa McClain’s (R-Mich.) Common Cents Act in July with bipartisan support. That bill laid out how to phase out the penny while also changing the technical definition of a nickel to make it cheaper to produce.

But specific language inside that bill that would have addressed the round-up, round-down issue was stripped before the bill was cleared by the committee due to conservative opposition.

A House GOP aide familiar with the negotiations said the panel has moved away from mandating a particular approach to transaction rounding and will introduce provisions that will give retailers a “safe harbor” for processing such payments. The main thing retailers want is a federal preemption from conflicting state rules.

House aides say the committee could advance these fixes as soon as the end of the month, certainly before the year is over, and pass the bill on suspension.

Senate behind. The Senate Banking Committee is tracking this issue but has largely deferred to the House.

In the meantime, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) will demand guidance from the Fed, Treasury and U.S. Mint in the coming days, according to another Senate Banking aide.

– Brendan Pedersen

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

ICYMI: PBN x TribFest 2025

Punchbowl News hosted a full day of programming at the 2025 Texas Tribune Festival in Austin, Texas, on Thursday, talking about the 2026 elections, what’s next in Congress and retirement security in partnership with BlackRock.

Senior Congressional Reporter Andrew Desiderio sat down with CNN’s Jake Tapper to discuss Tapper’s new book. Later, Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) and Andrew talked all things Congress and the midterms.

Punchbowl News Founder and CEO Anna Palmer interviewed famed former Texas Longhorns football coach Mack Brown, BlackRock’s senior managing director and global head of corporate affairs John Kelly and Plano Firefighters Association President Brad McCutcheon on redefining retirement.

“We have a life insurance policy, but we never think about the last chapter,” Brown said. “I don’t like the word ‘retired.’ I like ‘rewired.’” Check out the full conversation here.

Anna also sat down with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein, the Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston and former White House Communications Director Jen Palmieri to discuss the battle for Congress in the midterm elections.

And check back in Midday for a recap of our conversation with Gonzales.

– Heather Caygle and Elvina Nawaguna

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