The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

The ‘Mike and John’ show to open soon

McConnell at a crossroads

The Vault: Warren calls hearing in early look at her Banking approach

THE TOP

The ‘Mike and John’ show to open soon

Happy Friday morning.

Managing — and minimizing when necessary — the daily political maelstrom that is President-elect Donald Trump will fall on the shoulders of two GOP lawmakers come early January: Speaker Mike Johnson and incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune.

Let’s take a moment to review what’s occurred this week alone. Trump nominated two Cabinet-level candidates who may not get confirmed — former Reps. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) as director of national intelligence and Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) as attorney general. Gaetz resigned from the House just two days before a damaging ethics report was set to be released.

Trump then tapped Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a vaccine skeptic who questions a wide variety of scientific truisms, to be secretary of Health and Human Services. And Trump nominated his personal attorneys to be top ranking Justice Department officials.

How’s that, Mr. Speaker and Mr. Leader?

The 63-year-old Thune and 52-year-old Johnson are an unlikely pair.

Thune — who first arrived on Capitol Hill in the mid-1990s — will mark two decades in the Senate come January. He’s held a wide variety of leadership positions and chaired the Senate Commerce Committee. Thune is a deal-cutter who has a natural way with senators.

Johnson, on the other hand, came to Washington in 2017 — the same year as Trump — and became speaker after Republicans ousted Kevin McCarthy. He has no major legislative accomplishments to speak of. Lawmakers like him, but they don’t love him. And that seems to suit everyone just fine.

We’re going to SWOT this morning, running down the profile of the “Mike-and-John” duo as it relates to Trump’s return to office.

Strengths. Thune and Johnson — who are both low-key and affable — have gotten to know each other during the past year. The pair spoke frequently as they navigated government funding crises and other legislative priorities. Johnson’s House Republican leadership team even helped advance bills that were priorities for endangered Senate Republicans.

The last several Republican leaders were larger-than-life personalities. Johnson and Thune, in many ways, have yet to define themselves as the dominant figure in their respective conferences, despite just winning leadership elections. Furthermore, Johnson and Thune are much more aligned with Trump than Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell were in 2017.

The difference between Thune and Johnson lies in their respective conferences. Thune has a hefty base of support, having just won a three-way race to become the first new Senate GOP leader in 18 years. Thune has lots of allies and will use them to his advantage. Johnson’s base is among hardline conservatives — and Trump — but most in the conference give him a break because being speaker is a thankless job. The day-to-day legislative grind plus the heavy political travel schedule are brutal.

Weaknesses. Thune and Johnson — but Thune especially — will find themselves caught between what Trump wants and what they can deliver a notoriously impatient president.

Trump’s nominee picks show he’s going full “MAGA mandate” from Day One. Trump isn’t worried about what the “Republican Establishment” thinks of him. Trump is the Establishment now. He doesn’t care about the media or Democrats either. And Trump has already raised the prospect of bypassing the Senate’s confirmation process via recess appointments if he can’t get his nominees confirmed.

For his part, Johnson can’t win a speaker vote without Trump’s support.

In sum, Thune and Johnson are vessels for Trump, his policies and his wants. Thune and Johnson are hostages as much as party leaders. The best hope for Johnson and Thune is that they can stay together.

But it’ll be difficult for them to stay unified. The House is a different beast than the Senate. Even with its slim majority, the House is far more aligned with Trump. The Senate has some free agents while the House will have a handful of Republican outliers that will grunt and groan, but they’re sure to line up with Trump when needed.

Opportunities. This is a turning point for Thune when it comes to his relationship with Trump, which has improved appreciably since 2021.

Thune has a rare chance to chart a new course for the Senate Republican Conference, which has struggled at times to remain unified as several Trump-aligned freshmen have replaced veteran senators.

For Johnson, serving as speaker under a Democratic president was child’s play. He has to manage everyone from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) to Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.). Johnson will be under tremendous pressure from conservative hardliners to do everything Trump says and from moderates to translate Trump’s screeds into legislative reality.

Threats. Anything and everything Thune and Johnson say and do may be subject to a missive from the president, most likely on social media. And it won’t stop.

For Thune, avoiding criticism of the nominees is paramount.

So far, Thune is staying on message, saying the Senate will process Trump’s nominees through the regular procedures. In the meantime, Senate Republicans seem to be searching for ways to derail some of Trump’s picks. Thune will get the blame if they do.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

Want to make sure your whole office has the full Punchbowl News experience? We have team plans available for companies, organizations, classes, Capitol Hill offices and more. Fill out this form and find out if your team is eligible for a discount.

THE SENATE

McConnell at a crossroads

Is Mitch McConnell finally a free agent?

With the leadership elections behind them, Republican senators are musing about what McConnell’s forthcoming return to the rank-and-file means for the Senate.

There’s no doubt that some Senate Republicans, especially the national security hawks, will be looking to McConnell as a bellwether on important votes, including on some of President-elect Donald Trump’s more controversial nominees.

“I don’t know that [McConnell] wants to play that role. But if he does, he could do it better than anybody. He knows both our process and he knows the politics of it very, very well,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said. “Just by virtue of his influence, which is earned by experience, not by title, he will always have a bit of a sage role.”

But it’s unclear how, and whether, McConnell will utilize his post-leadership clout and how much of a difference it could make, especially given Republicans’ overwhelming deference to Trump thus far.

McConnell has said he plans to continue speaking out against his party’s isolationist drift on foreign policy. But GOP senators we spoke with noted McConnell has a unique opportunity to shape policy and personnel during the next Trump administration — without the pressures of being in leadership.

“He and I both agree we’ve been liberated,” joked Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who lost the leadership race earlier this week to Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.). “But I know how strongly [McConnell] feels about foreign policy and national security matters. I agree with him on that.”

McConnell will have a chance to make an impact almost immediately in the new Congress with Trump’s nomination of former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) as director of national intelligence, as well as former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-Fla.) nomination for attorney general.

Gabbard’s foreign policy views are anathema to McConnell, a longtime defense hawk who favors boosting Pentagon spending and has been Washington’s most vocal supporter of Ukraine. Gabbard opposes U.S. assistance for Ukraine, often to the point of amplifying Russian propaganda.

Will he, won’t he: It’s one thing to speak out. Voting that way is an entirely different calculation.

There’s a belief that if McConnell opposes Gabbard’s nomination, it could provide cover to other Senate Republicans who align with his foreign policy views. With a 53-47 margin, Trump can only afford to lose three Republican votes, assuming there’s full attendance.

“I’m sure he won’t try to second-guess the new leader or undermine Sen. Thune in any way,” longtime McConnell ally Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said, referring to incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune. “But it’s just natural that he will have well-developed ideas and strategies on a host of issues and that members want to hear that.”

The flip side of this is that McConnell could actually be helping Thune. By taking arrows for tanking a nomination or other measure, McConnell would take the pressure off Thune and the rest of the GOP leadership, insulating them from Trump’s wrath.

Across the Capitol, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi – in many ways McConnell’s peer – has played a major role for House Democrats despite her backbencher status, especially in the push to get President Joe Biden off the Democratic ticket. That kind of drama isn’t going to happen to the 82-year-old McConnell, yet it shows how he can have influence even if no longer serving as party leader.

McConnell isn’t telegraphing his strategy quite yet. But he had this to say at an AEI event this week: “Each of these nominees needs to come before the Senate and go through the process and be vetted.”

The ‘team player’: Not everyone thinks McConnell will go full YOLO. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who’s close with McConnell, said the Kentucky Republican is a “team player who’s going to continue to do the same thing regardless of how he feels personally.”

“I just don’t see it,” Tillis said of McConnell breaking with the rest of the conference. “Some people are going to think it’s a payback session or something like that. That’s absurd.”

Yet Anti-McConnell conservatives are giddy that he’ll no longer be in charge. But they think McConnell’s style could inject a lot of uncertainty.

“Everybody realizes that was a one-man dictatorship, didn’t involve people, it was his strategy, which he would never reveal till the last minute,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) warned.

— Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen

HOUSE RACES

Repeat House candidates had a tough time this year. There were plenty of House challengers — 23 to be exact — who decided to run in competitive seats (those classified as either toss-up and lean Democrat/Republican) after losing a race two years ago.

Of these 23 candidates, just three have won their races this year.

The successful repeat candidates are Reps.-elect Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.), Josh Riley (D-N.Y.) and Tom Barrett (R-Mich.). Gillen and Riley beat the same Republicans they lost to in 2022, while Barrett benefited from Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) running for Senate and opening up the seat.

Republican Nick Begich, who lost in 2022 to Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska), is on track to win his seat. But the AP hasn’t called the race yet.

The debate over repeat candidates reached a crescendo in January, with the NRCC likening Democrat re-run contenders to “week-old crusty lasagna.” Yet to be fair, both parties ran unsuccessful repeat candidates in competitive districts. Eleven Democrats who ran in 2022 are on track to lose again this time, while a further eight Republicans are on track to lose for the second straight cycle in a row.

— Max Cohen

… AND THERE’S MORE

The Campaign. Stand With Ukraine has a new 30-second ad up in D.C., urging lawmakers to stand with the beleaguered government in Kyiv. The spot focuses on Russia’s prosecution of Christians in Ukraine. Ukraine aid as we have come to know it doesn’t stand a chance in President-elect Donald Trump’s Washington.

Last Best Place PAC, the PAC supporting Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), has closed its doors. The PAC donated over $674,000 to the Senate Majority PAC and $12,000 to the Montana Outdoor Values Action Fund.

Downtown Download. The Recording Industry Association of America has hired Rick Lane of Iggy Ventures to lobby on the Anti-Counterfeiting Protection Act. Lane was the senior vice president for government affairs for 21st Century Fox.

Uber has hired theGROUP to lobby on “[i]ssues related to the future of work and the on-demand economy. Issues related to surface transportation safety measures. Issues related to international tax.”

— Jake Sherman

MOMENTS

CLIPS