How redistricting has boomeranged on the GOP

IN THIS EDITION

How redistricting backfired on the GOP

Democrats step on their own wins

House Admin eyes member stock trading — with a looming threat

The Vault: The IRS rollercoaster

THE TOP

How redistricting backfired on the GOP

Happy Wednesday morning.

President Donald Trump and House Republicans thought they had a winning midterm strategy — redraw congressional maps in red states to gain an insurmountable edge heading into 2026.

This would be a huge plus for Trump, who wouldn’t have to face a Democratic-run House or a possible impeachment push. And Speaker Mike Johnson currently holds only a two-vote edge that could easily be swept away if the midterms go badly for Republicans.

But their strategy hasn’t worked out as planned. In fact, it now looks like Trump and House GOP leaders may have been better off not doing anything at all.

That became apparent Tuesday when a federal judicial panel in Texas overturned the Republicans’ aggressive redraw of the Lone Star State’s congressional map, a move that was supposed to give the GOP five new ruby red seats.

In Indiana, a cavalcade of state senators have said they won’t redraw the Hoosier State’s map to erase two Democratic seats, despite Trump’s aggressive pressure campaign.

Meanwhile, Democrats — spurred into action by the GOP push — have faced fewer roadblocks, although they haven’t been successful everywhere.

In California, Democrats easily engineered a ballot initiative that will net them between three and five seats. Democrats also have secured legislative buy-in on a push to gerrymander as many as three more seats out of Virginia.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told us that Democrats will keep pushing blue states to redraw regardless of the final outcome in Texas.

“We are moving full steam ahead,” Jeffries said. “Republican extremists started this gerrymandering fight. We’re going to end it.”

A harsh reality. We’ll note some big caveats here. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton — who is running for the Senate GOP nomination — has already announced that he’ll appeal this ruling to the Supreme Court, where the conservative super-majority could very well overturn the decision. The GOP is eager for this to happen.

Republicans also will try to maximize a new map in Florida, with GOP lawmakers in the Sunshine State showing an appetite to redistrict. It’s unlikely that Republicans would be able to gain five seats here as they hoped, but one or two may be possible.

“I also remind everybody that it’s not necessarily a simple task, as we saw now in Texas,” cautioned Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, the Republican dean of the Florida delegation. “It’s not something as simple as maybe people think it is.”

And if the Supreme Court strikes down Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in the coming months — as looks possible in a high-profile Louisiana case — the GOP could net several more seats across the Deep South. But timing is everything here, so the House battleground for the midterms remains very fluid.

Let’s consider things as they stand right now.

At Trump’s behest, Republicans started an unprecedented redistricting war. But the biggest weapon in their arsenal, Texas, has very possibly boomeranged on them. Indiana is growing more unlikely by the day. That’s seven seats Republicans were hoping for up in smoke.

Democrats only redrew California to cancel out Texas. That complicated maneuver meant California Democrats had to jam through a statewide referendum in order to temporarily pause their independent redistricting commission. Republicans talked about defeating that referendum, but they got run over. This gives Democrats a shot at netting between four to five seats next year.

It also helped make California Gov. Gavin Newsom a 2028 Democratic star.

The new redistricting math. At the outset of this redistricting contest, Democrats started in a hole, in part because they had redistricting commissions in place in so many blue states.

But it’s not impossible to imagine that they end up netting more seats than the GOP in these mid-decade redraws, a stunning change of circumstances that didn’t seem possible only a few months ago.

Democrats are well on their way to collecting the number of valid signatures needed to force a referendum that would pause Republicans’ gerrymander in Missouri. Republicans in Ohio, fearing a similar referendum push, cut a deal with Democrats for a map that might not net the GOP any seats at all.

The Kansas legislature has said they don’t have the votes to redistrict out Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Kan.). Meanwhile, a Utah court gifted Democrats a new safe seat in the Beehive State.

“Everyone kept saying, ‘You know what? Democrats can’t keep up in this arms fight. They just don’t have enough places to go,’” Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) said. “And guess what? Somehow we are now winning.”

In a bright spot for the GOP, Republicans have a one-seat pickup in North Carolina. But that state and Florida seem like the only sure bets right now.

All of this has left Republicans questioning whether this redistricting race was too risky of a gamble. Plenty of members secretly hated the idea of getting a new district mid-cycle.

“There was no member of the delegation that was asked our opinion,” Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Texas) said.

– Ally Mutnick, Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Haley Talbot

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THE MINORITY

Democrats step on their own wins

House Democrats scored two huge victories on Tuesday. Then they faceplanted.

After months of embarrassing Republicans over Jeffrey Epstein, all but one House member — GOP Rep. Clay Higgins of Louisiana — voted to release the disgraced financier’s files. It was a stunning rebuke of President Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson, both of whom had worked for months to prevent the Epstein discharge petition from ever reaching the floor. It was also a validation of the Democrats’ persistence on the matter.

Then the 2026 electoral map was upended in Democrats’ favor — for now — as a three-judge panel threw out Republicans’ gerrymandered Texas map.

And yet you would have no idea that Democrats were coming off these two big wins.

Instead, Democrats spent much of the day defending two of their own — Rep. Chuy Garcia (D-Ill.) and Del. Stacey Plaskett (D-V.I.) — from House floor reprimands. The effort to defend Garcia failed — he was reprimanded in a floor vote — while the Plaskett push succeeded after Democrats threatened to retaliate against embattled GOP Rep. Cory Mills (Fla.).

If you ask some House Democrats, it just proves once again that they can mess up a sunny day.

“It didn’t help the party,” Rep. Jonathan Jackson (D-Ill.) said of Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s (D-Wash.) resolution disapproving of Garcia’s attempt to basically hand his seat to a top aide. “Distracted from the message — very selfish of her.”

It was an embarrassing fight for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his leadership team at a high-profile moment. And it comes after Jeffries managed to keep his caucus united for months on both the Epstein files and the government shutdown.

“Coming after Epstein and right after the Democratic Party being united and winning a big victory on Election Day,” Rep. Greg Meeks (D-N.Y.) said. “It beats me. I have no clue what that was all about.”

MGP interrupted Democrats’ messaging on the shutdown to introduce the Garcia disapproval resolution last week. Jeffries, House Minority Whip Katherine Clark and other top Democrats pushed their members to stay united against the measure.

But 22 Democrats — including two of Garcia’s fellow Illinois delegation members — broke with their leadership and ended up backing the MGP resolution once Democrats lost a procedural move to kill it.

Some of the party’s vulnerable Frontline lawmakers — including Reps. Laura Gillen (N.Y.), Adam Gray (Calif.) and Greg Landsman (Ohio) — sided with Republicans. Same goes for Democrats seeking statewide office, including Reps. Angie Craig (Minn.), Haley Stevens (Mich.), Chris Pappas (N.H.) and Seth Moulton (Mass.).

For her part, Plaskett found herself under scrutiny after files from Epstein’s estate revealed she had been texting with him as she grilled former Trump attorney Michael Cohen during a 2019 Oversight Committee hearing.

Top Democrats, including Jeffries and Judiciary Committee ranking member Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), vigorously defended Plaskett on the House floor. Plaskett herself explained away the chummy texts with Epstein — in which he complimented her outfit and seemed to shape her questions — as a text from a constituent.

Plaskett also claimed it wasn’t public knowledge at the time of Cohen’s Feb. 2019 hearing that Epstein was under federal investigation.

“Let me tell you something — I don’t need to get advice on how to question anybody from any individual,” Plaskett said in her own defense on the House floor.

But Epstein pleaded guilty in 2008 to Florida felony charges including solicitation of prostitution with a minor. He ended up serving 13 months in state prison. The Miami Herald also ran a major exposé in Nov. 2018 laying out how Epstein and his lawyers were able to obtain an extraordinary non-prosecution agreement from the Justice Department.

For months Democrats have claimed the moral high ground on Epstein and GOP ties with him — including Trump. Hours after the Epstein vote, those same party leaders were forced to defend one of their own member’s association with him.

“It’s pretty hard to take away from such an incredible victory, but of course it’s not ideal,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said.

– Heather Caygle, John Bresnahan, Ally Mutnick and Laura Weiss

CONGRESSIONAL CASH

House Admin eyes member stock trading — with a looming threat

Banning members of Congress from trading stocks has been a hot issue for years, a proposal that’s overwhelmingly popular in both parties. And today, the House Administration Committee will hold a hearing on the STOCK Act to begin exploring the different legislative options to clamp down on such practices by lawmakers.

Dozens of House members have signed onto the Restore Trust in Congress Act, a bipartisan effort led by Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Seth Magaziner (D-R.I.) to ban the trading and ownership of stocks by members, their spouses and dependents. If adopted, it would be by far the most drastic action taken by Congress on this issue.

Other key sponsors include Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and Joe Neguse (D-Colo.). Overall, more than 90 members have signed onto the proposed measure, giving it a wide base of support in both parties.

“This is an issue that polls over 90% nationally. The American people support this at a high-intensity level,” said Magaziner, who is pushing for a total ban on stock trading by lawmakers after months of talks with his colleagues. “And I really think we’re at a point now where there are no significant policy arguments against doing this.”

There’s also an anvil hanging over the head of Speaker Mike Johnson and other House leaders if they don’t act.

Luna has a discharge petition ready to force the speaker’s hand if the House Administration panel doesn’t immediately move to mark up the Restore Trust in Congress Act. Luna is willing to move ahead if she doesn’t see enough progress.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told us he wants to get something done this year “through the committee process.”

The complications. The Roy-Magaziner bill bans members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children from owning stocks, commodities, futures and derivatives. Members and their spouses and kids can own mutual funds, treasuries, state and municipal bonds, and small business equity.

Under this bill, assets must be liquidated within 180 days.

But there are tons of complications here. What if a member’s child inherits stock from a grandparent, for example? They must sell it. In this bill, members of Congress who own a family farm cannot hedge their positions. Also, members of both parties recognize that it will be more difficult to recruit candidates if they have to sell all their investments within 180 days of coming to Congress.

Here’s a good Congressional Research Service primer on current law regarding member stock trading and some of the reform proposals that members have offered this Congress.

The politics. Despite the obvious hurdles in crafting a workable bill, the politics of banning stock trading for members of Congress is undoubtedly attractive.

“This is a dramatically important issue, and I genuinely believe that once we get this to the floor and once it is voted on, I do believe that it will dramatically change the substance of governance here and the decisions that are made,” Ocasio-Cortez told us. “I think that this is a domino that once you tip this over, I think it will introduce a series of other shifts in how legislation is approached here.”

– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

The Vault: The IRS rollercoaster

The IRS has had a tumultuous ride throughout this Trump administration with a revolving cast of leaders at the top.

The latest upheaval saw the White House drop a chief counsel nominee in the middle of the confirmation process. The agency has acting leadership and a newly-created CEO running the ship after Billy Long’s weeks-long tenure.

“Acting roles work in some positions, but I think here, you’ve got to have somebody that’s going to have staying power,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said, noting tax filing season is around the corner.

Now there’s also the dynamic that the latest ouster came after MAGA influencer Laura Loomer posted about “major red flags” with the pick. And Loomer isn’t through yet.

“It could be better, as a lot of things in government,” Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.) said.

Where this leaves the IRS. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle told us the agency’s leadership tumult has made them concerned about the IRS being able to achieve key projects and pull off a smooth tax season starting in January.

Republicans also say they have faith in the leadership of acting commissioner Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, and CEO Frank Bisignano, who’s also Social Security commissioner. But that isn’t negating all their worries.

“We’re keeping an eye … they’re communicating with us what they’re doing,” House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) said. “But is it a concern that apparently the IRS can’t? Of course that’s a concern. But I have a lot of faith in the CEO of the IRS.”

Here’s House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas):

Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) said the situation poses challenges for members hoping to complete significant projects, like advancing the IRS’s technology.

Democrats say the chaos is hitting a particularly tough spot.

“If there’s one agency in this town where stability is required, it’s the IRS,” Ways and Means Ranking Member Richie Neal (D-Mass.) said. “And if there’s an agency where everything rests upon their credibility, it’s the IRS.”

— Laura Weiss and Brendan Pedersen

… AND THERE’S MORE

News: Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) has tapped Randy Herndon as the panel’s new chief tax counsel.

Herndon is already a veteran of the committee. He worked to pass the One Big Beautiful Bill Act this year as deputy chief tax counsel and has been on the Finance GOP staff since 2023. Herndon previously served as tax counsel to former Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) when the GOP passed the 2017 Trump tax cuts.

Herndon takes over for former GOP chief tax counsel Courtney Connell, who recently left the panel.

Finance Committee Republicans also made several other hires. Mary Kate Carter joined from Lot Sixteen to be international trade policy advisor. Senate HELP GOP aide Anna Rose Moore is now Finance’s senior health policy advisor. Michael Hawthorne is now tax counsel, after working at Squire Patton Boggs. Alexander Hughes is press assistant.

App Time. The Republican Study Committee is launching Vote Right, a new mobile app featuring live coverage of the House floor and votes. This is meant to be a GOP counter to Democrats’ DomeWatch app.

Tech. Sens. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) are introducing a bill to require social media platforms to “exercise reasonable care in designing, training, testing, deploying, operating, and maintaining recommendation-based algorithms to prevent foreseeable bodily injury or death.”

The Algorithm Accountability Act would amend Section 230, the controversial legal provision that lets websites exit quickly from civil lawsuits over content that users post.

— Laura Weiss, Ally Mutnick and Ben Brody

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