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IN THIS EDITION

2024 cycle sputters to a finale

Emmer whips votes for his colleagues — and Trump

Dems confront abortion ticket-splitters in Senate battlegrounds

Carbajal and Bera hit the road in SoCal

THE TOP

2024 cycle sputters to a finale

Happy Monday morning.

Tomorrow is Election Day.

The 2024 election cycle — one of the most bizarre of our lifetime — is coming to a close. Look at everything that’s happened in the last six months:

— On May 1, former President Donald Trump was leading President Joe Biden in the polls, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulling roughly 10% of the vote. But following a disastrous June 27 debate performance (just 130 days ago!) and facing a revolt from Hill Democrats led in part by former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Biden withdrew. He was immediately replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris. It changed everything. Harris’ popularity soared, and her fundraising was off the charts. For the first time this cycle, Democrats had energy — and some hope.

— A would-be assassin wounded Trump and killed a spectator during a July 13 rally in Butler, Pa. The deadly episode set off a political firestorm on Capitol Hill. The Secret Service director later resigned, and both the House and DHS launched investigations. A second potential Trump assassin was arrested on Sept. 15 in Florida, raising another round of complaints about Trump’s security.

— Harris and Trump faced off in a debate on Sept. 10. Trump lost that debate and his campaign faltered, only to seem to regain its momentum later on.

— Trump has been erratic, at best, during the last few weeks. The Madison Square Garden rally will go down as a textbook example of political malpractice. Trump also said he was open to RFK Jr.’s call for the federal government to stop using fluoride in drinking water and — more alarmingly — curtail the use of vaccines.

On Sunday, Trump said during a rally in Lititz, Pa., that he shouldn’t have left office in January 2021. Trump also suggested he wouldn’t mind if reporters get shot in any assassination attempt against him and he complained about a new poll in Iowa that showed Harris up by three points.

— Senate Republicans were supposed to have a really good cycle. They still could. Yet sitting here just before Election Day, they seem right now to have secured just two victories: Montana and West Virginia. In Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Democratic candidates and incumbents are still competitive or even ahead. And Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego looks like he’s set to be the next senator from Arizona.

— House Republicans expected to be running in this critical election with Kevin McCarthy as speaker. Instead, they have Mike Johnson. Johnson has kept up with McCarthy’s fundraising pace, but there’s some real anxiety about the speaker’s performance down the stretch.

Let’s spend a minute on Johnson. Twice during the last week, the speaker has been forced to walk back controversial statements he made on the trail.

Campaigning in Bethlehem, Pa., Johnson appeared to say that Republicans would seek to repeal Obamacare. The speaker later insisted he didn’t say that but wanted to lower health-care costs.

And then during a stop in upstate New York, Johnson said he’d seek to repeal the CHIPS and Science Act, which has brought billions of dollars of investment to hard-hit communities in the Empire State. Johnson later said he misheard the question and doesn’t intend to repeal the CHIPS Act — an explanation that even some of his closest allies don’t believe. See the exchange for yourself.

Are any of these incidents going to swing the election? Probably not. But it could set Johnson up for major criticism should House Republicans fall short on Election Day.

We’ll also say this — if anyone tells you they know what’s going to happen tomorrow, ignore them. They don’t.

During the past two presidential campaigns, polls underestimated Trump’s performance. He could crack the “Blue Wall” in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, vaulting himself back into the Oval Office while carrying some or all of the trio of Senate GOP candidates in those states to victory. That’s very possible.

Or Harris can run the table and win North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan and Arizona, making her the first woman president.

The latest polls also show very tight Senate contests in the three critical Midwestern states. Democratic Sen. Bob Casey has a small but consistent lead over Republican David McCormick in Pennsylvania. Same for Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin over former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan, and incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) over Republican Eric Hovde in Wisconsin.

All of these races are tightening and well within the margin of error, so either side could win. It’s all down to the wire, of course. Like everything else this year.

— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

November Events … New! Join us for a conversation with Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) on Thursday, Nov. 21 at 9 a.m. ET. Punchbowl News founder Jake Sherman will sit down with Womack to discuss the news of the day and the future of defense and industrial policy. Afterward, Shyam Sankar, chief technology officer of Palantir Technologies, will join Jake for a fireside chat. RSVP!

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

Emmer whips votes for his colleagues — and Trump

HARRISBURG, Pa. — House Majority Whip Tom Emmer spends his time in Congress rounding up votes for bills.

But the Minnesota Republican has also been barnstorming the country to whip votes for his colleagues and GOP candidates.

Emmer zipped around Pennsylvania on Saturday, attending a Penn State versus Ohio State watch party for Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), a former House Freedom Caucus chair in a competitive race.

Perry, a notorious thorn in the side of House GOP leaders, acknowledged the unusual dynamic.

“We disagree on some things,” Perry said of Emmer. But Perry also called the blunt-talking Emmer an “honest broker” — an important quality to the Freedom Caucus, which has trust issues with Republican leadership.

Emmer returned the praise. “We love Scott Perry within our conference,” the Minnesota Republican said, reflecting a sentiment that is far from universal.

The campaign stop was sandwiched between get-out-the-vote events for GOP candidates Ryan Mackenzie and Rob Bresnahan, where Emmer brought his hockey coach energy and treated every speech like a locker room pep talk.

Emmer, a former NRCC chair, has hit 232 cities, spent 230 days on the road and raised $35 million this cycle.

Whip it good: Emmer and his deputy whip Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.), who was in tow for Saturday’s swing, treat their whip operation more like a “customer service” shop.

With a razor-thin majority — and the constant threat of leadership coups — arm-twisting is not always an effective strategy.

Emmer and Reschenthaler hold regular listening sessions. They know the tastes of every member, whether it be whiskey, cigars or chocolate — a personal touch that comes in handy.

Emmer acknowledged the difficulties of navigating the old bulls, firebrands and members in tough districts.

It hasn’t always been smooth sailing. Passing appropriations bills has been particularly difficult, with conservatives undermining their own leaders. Some of Emmer’s critics have accused him of not wanting to get his hands dirty on tougher votes.

Asked if he feels unfairly blamed for floor drama, Emmer told us: “The blame, I don’t care. People can say what they want… Our job is to support our speaker and our majority leader and get it done.”

Emmer refused to say whether he’ll run again for whip, insisting he’s only focused on the election.

But if Republicans lose the House, they’ll be down a leadership position. Should Speaker Mike Johnson and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise try to stay in the No. 1 and 2 spots, that could make Emmer the odd man out.

House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, the only woman in leadership, has already signaled she plans to run for her post again.

Trump transformation: After former President Donald Trump torpedoed his speakership bid last year, Emmer worked to repair their relationship.

Now the two communicate regularly, Emmer said. He flew with Trump to Wisconsin last week. Emmer, Minnesota state chair of Trump’s 2024 campaign, sent Trump some encouraging early voting numbers in the state on Saturday.

Emmer also helped Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) prepare for his vice presidential debate by playing the role of Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic vice presidential nominee and fellow Minnesotan.

On the campaign trail, Emmer’s stump speech includes jabs at “Timmy” Walz.

“My governor is a lot worse than your governor,” Emmer said Saturday. “Anybody see that debate with JD Vance? Wouldn’t you agree with me that JD Vance absolutely mopped the floor with Tim Walz?”

— Melanie Zanona

THE SENATE

Dems confront abortion ticket-splitters in Senate battlegrounds

LAS VEGAS — It isn’t just Republicans trying to discourage ticket-splitting in the Senate battlegrounds.

In the handful of states where abortion is on the ballot alongside competitive Senate races, Democrats are looking to use the overwhelming popularity of abortion rights to help their candidates.

That’ll require confronting their own ticket-splitting problem — independents and moderate Republicans who favor abortion rights but still vote for GOP candidates down the ballot.

“We don’t want voters to split their freedoms,” Planned Parenthood President Alexis McGill Johnson told us after rallying for Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) here. “When they split their vote, they are splitting their freedoms, they are canceling their vote, literally.”

Abortion ballots: While Republicans are trying to limit the number of Donald Trump voters who break for a Democratic Senate candidate, Democrats are trying to discourage ticket-splitting on an issue that has lifted their party to unlikely victories across the country since Roe v. Wade was overturned.

This has sometimes proven difficult given how broadly abortion rights appeal beyond the Democratic base.

“The ballot measures are going to out-perform Democrats in every state,” said Mini Timmaraju, president of Reproductive Freedom For All. “We have a lot of Republicans who are still uncomfortable with identifying as anything other than Republican, but are very comfortable on the ballot measures.”

Timmaraju said it’s “problematic” to assume that an abortion ballot initiative “automatically” helps Democrats.

Abortion has been a major issue in nearly all of the close Senate races. In general, the GOP candidates have insisted they won’t support a federal abortion ban. That includes Sam Brown, the Republican challenging Rosen.

But Rosen has zeroed in on Brown’s previous statements about abortion — including when he was running for office in Texas — to argue that voters can’t trust him on this critical issue.

Democrats are also broadening the debate beyond just abortion, noting that Republicans opposed Democratic bills on IVF and contraception. These were messaging votes put forward by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer earlier this year.

“They can say or do anything they want, but their votes show who they are. And they will vote against this every time,” Rosen told us. “Don’t let them cover up any of this to try to fool us to win a race.”

Outside groups: Democratic candidates are also benefiting from the work of pro-abortion rights groups. These organizations are at the center of efforts to persuade voters who support abortion rights to also vote for Democrats down the ballot.

Jessica Mackler, the president of EMILYs List, told us ahead of Rosen’s rally that codifying abortion rights at the state level “isn’t going to be enough if we put Republicans in power at the national level.”

“The imperative is to wrap those races around the stakes for reproductive freedom,” Mackler said. “That’s how Democrats have elected candidates on the issue of reproductive freedom in Kentucky and Kansas and many places that are red and purple.”

— Andrew Desiderio

GOLDEN STATE

Carbajal and Bera hit the road in SoCal

California Democratic Reps. Salud Carbajal and Ami Bera embarked on a weekend campaigning swing through the most competitive southern California House districts. We caught up with the two former Frontliners to hear their takes on the nation’s tightest races.

Democratic energy: No surprise here: Carbajal and Bera reported seeing Democratic enthusiasm in the toss-up House races surrounding Los Angeles. Bera attributed that to former President Donald Trump.

“Trump seems to be more of a lunatic every day,” Bera said. “That is a driving issue at this stage where it really is finding those voters that haven’t cast their ballots — it’s less persuasion and more turnout.”

Preaching patience: As California lawmakers, both members are well aware that the vote-counting process in the Golden State stretches on well past Election Day.

“We know these races all take a week or two to get called,” Bera said. Bera said he was telling volunteers to be “prepared mentally for what that looks like.”

A bit of news: Bera, who put himself forward for the DCCC position in 2022, told us he has no interest in seeking the campaign role next cycle. Instead, Bera said he wants Chair Suzan DelBene to stay in the role.

“Hopefully she wants to do this again because 2026 could be a tough cycle,” Bera said of DelBene.

Of course, the next DCCC chair will be appointed by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. But Bera reflected a growing sentiment among members that DelBene should stick around.

— Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

Vice President Kamala Harris has a two-minute ad up across the country, laying out the theory for her candidacy. There’s nothing new here, specifically, but a two-minute spot nationwide is notable. It also includes a clip from her rally at the Ellipse.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) has been busy helping out Senate Democrats, despite also being in cycle this year. Klobuchar has raised more than $2 million for the DSCC and Senate Democrats, including donating more than $1 million to the DSCC from her own campaign. This past weekend, Klobuchar was in Pittsburgh to canvass for Harris. In total, Klobuchar has been to 13 states this cycle to stump for Dems.

— Max Cohen

MOMENTS

CLIPS