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November 7, 2023
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Tuesday morning.
Ten days from now, the federal government will be on the brink of shutting down.
Here’s where things stand: Speaker Mike Johnson, in his second full week leading the House, is heading to the Capitol basement this morning to discuss several options to avert a shutdown come Nov. 17.
Meanwhile, across the Capitol, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the Senate is setting the stage to jam the House with a massive omnibus-like bill around the holidays. This is exactly what House Republicans have said they want to avoid. Unfortunately for them, the Senate GOP doesn’t really care.
We’ll also note that this is Johnson’s first high-stakes negotiations as speaker. His predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, lost his post shortly after the House passed the last continuing resolution to avoid a shutdown. So Johnson must proceed cautiously to avoid the same problems with conservative hardliners that McCarthy and other GOP speakers had (see Boehner, John and Ryan, Paul.)
President Joe Biden, showing alarming weakness in the polls, would like nothing better than a showdown with an overreaching House GOP majority.
All set? Let’s talk about what Johnson is considering.
1) The laddered CR. Under this Freedom Caucus-pushed concept, the House would pass two stopgap funding packages. One would extend four relatively non-controversial spending bills until early December. The second package would extend funding for the other eight bills until mid-January.
In theory, this would force the House and Senate into a negotiation over all 12 funding bills. It’s also meant to prevent the Senate from sending an omnibus to the House ahead of the Christmas break.
Republican senators — even the most seasoned appropriators — had no idea what a “laddered CR” even was before Monday. They’re less than thrilled about it now that they know.
“It seems to me that you would just constantly be having programs and agencies stop and go, stop and go,” Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the top GOP appropriator, told us. “And so I think that would increase the difficulty.”
2) Clean, with no supplemental. Another idea under consideration is to extend government funding until January — which Johnson pitched to Senate Republicans — but separately negotiate on the $100 billion-plus supplemental spending requests dealing with the border, Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan. This has the benefit of being a clean CR, which is easy for the Senate to accept. But leaving aside the supplemental money will be very tricky.
3) Negotiate with the Senate. One option that Johnson is floating internally — and it seems like the least likely to us — is to have House Republicans try to see if they can get a CR deal with the Senate while still working to pass individual spending bills.
Johnson is in the “I’m-going-to-change-the-way-things-work” phase of being a new speaker, so his goal today is to try to see which option here picks up the most support from his rank-and-file. Remember, the House GOP won’t pass a CR this week. All this is on the table for next week.
There are a few ways this can all work out. The House Freedom Caucus will likely be locked into the laddered-CR approach. It was their idea and they believe it helps fight the government funding dispute on their terms, not the Senate’s.
The most obvious outcome here — and Johnson’s leadership team recognizes this — is a clean CR with some extraneous provisions that the Senate could accept. Leading options on that front include the creation of a statutory debt commission or new border-security provisions, according to sources close to the process.
Over in the Senate. Several top Senate Democrats told us Monday that they’re looking to expedite passage of the remaining nine FY2024 appropriations bills by using a December CR deadline to ratchet up the pressure to pass them. This would mean passing a month-long funding patch before Nov. 17.
Of course, the first three-bill minibus took nearly two months amid GOP objections, so what makes senators think they can pass the rest in such a short period of time?
Some news: Top Senate appropriators and leaders in both parties are telling us they might need to package the final nine together into one “megabus,” if you will. While this isn’t preferable, Collins said, it would be different from an omnibus in that these bills have all gone through committee. And the nine-bill vehicle would presumably be subject to amendments. This wouldn’t go over well in the House, where GOP leadership would likely ignore it.
“I just feel like we keep losing time,” Collins said, noting she preferred to stick to the original plan of moving four separate minibuses made up of three bills. But Collins said the nine-bill approach would be “certainly an improvement” over an omnibus, which is drafted behind closed doors without an opportunity to amend it.
Senate Democrats are already pitching the December CR strategy publicly. Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), a senior appropriator, said: “We damn well should get it done by December, and that should be something we commit to and stay here on weekends until we get it done.”
That would mean finishing all nine funding bills, the Ukraine-Israel-Taiwan-border supplemental, the farm bill and the FAA bill — all within a few weeks of legislation action.
In sum, confusion reigns and there’s a non-zero chance that the federal government will shut down next week.
— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan
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THE SENATE
The warring Senate GOP factions on the Tuberville blockade
News: Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) will circulate a memo ahead of the special GOP Conference meeting today that will outline his openness — or lack thereof — to some of the off-ramps floated both publicly and privately for ending his months-long military promotions blockade.
Monday night, for the first time, Tuberville added a caveat to his oft-stated pledge to keep his holds in place unless the Pentagon scraps its abortion policy: “Until we get a solution.”
“We’ll just have a conversation and see if anybody’s got any solutions,” Tuberville said. “Everybody’s interested in it now after nine months. Hopefully, we can come up with something that’ll work.”
We’re told that Tuberville is, in fact, open to different pathways to resolving the worsening standoff, which has reached a crisis point among Senate Republicans. But that doesn’t mean he’ll accept something that won’t eliminate or dramatically alter the Defense Department’s abortion policy. Put simply, Tuberville needs a win or he’s not backing down.
Republicans will meet privately at 3:30 p.m. as Democrats press ahead with a proposal that GOP senators oppose but may soon be forced to back.
This Democrat-led resolution would circumvent Tuberville’s blockade by allowing multiple promotions to be voted on at the same time. It’ll go through the Rules Committee next Tuesday, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has said he’ll put it on the floor.
The resolution will serve as the backdrop of the Republican confab today, which will feature three GOP factions.
1) Tuberville’s crew. It’s worth noting that despite the groundswell of GOP opposition over the past week, Tuberville isn’t alone here.
He’s still getting critical backup from Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), among others, who believe Tuberville is right to hold up military promotions over the abortion policy.
“He’ll have a friend in me in there,” Marshall said. “It’s a complicated issue, but at the end of the day, I believe in the sanctity of life. I think that’s the biggest issue here.”
2) The possible “yes” votes. The dam broke last week when Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) led a brutal takedown of Tuberville’s blockade on the Senate floor.
These are the senators who are among the relatively small universe of Republicans who could eventually back the Democratic-led resolution if it becomes clear that there’s no other option. These GOP senators are starting to lay the groundwork for this move, which would be controversial inside the party.
“The idea that somehow this [blockade] isn’t impacting readiness and morale in one of the most dangerous times we’ve faced in decades — nobody’s buying that,” Sullivan said Monday night.
Voting for the resolution — while not preferable — would be better than inflicting further damage to U.S. national security, these GOP senators reason. Many believe that while the resolution sets a bad precedent, Tuberville’s use of military promotions to achieve a policy aim is doing the same.
“We’ve got to solve the problem. I’m just not sure we need to do that yet,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), a member of GOP leadership, said of the resolution.
3) The institutionalists. There are many Republicans who believe anything even resembling a rules change sets a poor precedent that could be exploited by Democrats in the future.
They also fear this could dilute senators’ unique prerogatives such as placing holds on nominations, which senators do all the time — just not to the extent Tuberville is.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is among those wary of setting a new standard that weakens senators’ individual power, despite the fact that he has all but said Tuberville is abusing these privileges. McConnell has been reluctant to get too involved in the issue publicly. That could change today.
— Andrew Desiderio
CENSURE SEASON
What’s next on the Tlaib censure efforts
It’s a new week in the House of Representatives, but the same old censure fights are back. The House will consider two more censure resolutions against Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) after an effort by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) fell short last week.
Both Greene and fellow Georgia GOP Rep. Rich McCormick filed resolutions to censure Tlaib Monday. The move comes after Tlaib released a video over the weekend that included the chant “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free” a rallying cry for Hamas, which was behind the Oct. 7 terror attacks and wants to end Israel’s existence. Tlaib’s parents are Palestinian immigrants.
McCormick initially joined Democrats in voting to table Greene’s resolution last week, which accused Tlaib of “leading an insurrection.”
While Greene has slightly pared back her rhetoric this week, McCormick’s resolution narrowly focuses on Tlaib’s comments about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. McCormick’s resolution also wouldn’t require Tlaib to go to the well of the House to be verbally reprimanded.
“We’re not against censureship of Tlaib. We just want to make sure it was done the right way,” McCormick said in a video. “It’s very important that the wording is correct and that’s why we submitted our own resolution.”
House Minority Whip Katherine Clark told us Democrats were whipping their members to vote against both censure resolutions. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries refused to address Tlaib’s latest comments, telling us he was focused on “solving real problems.”
But senior Democrats acknowledged to us they won’t be able to fully hold the caucus together like last week. Several Democrats are beyond frustrated with Tlaib both for posting the initial video and then defending her actions. Several Democrats in the Michigan delegation, as well as Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, have objected to Tlaib’s statement.
But Tlaib refuses to back down or revise her original comments.
“It’s a shame my colleagues are more focused on silencing me than they are on saving lives, as the death toll in Gaza surpasses 10,000,” Tlaib said in a statement.
McCormick said several House Republicans who voted to table Greene’s measure last week will co-sponsor his measure, including Reps. Derrick Van Orden (Wis.), Darrell Issa (Calif.) and Max Miller (Ohio).
Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.), who voted against Greene’s initial resolution, will also support McCormick’s proposal, according to a source. Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.) told us McCormick is “probably on a good track” with the resolution, and he’s open to backing it.
Republican leadership has two days to bring the privileged resolutions up for a vote once they’re formally introduced on the floor. McCormick’s resolution is likely to come up first, which Democrats will move to table.
If the motion to table fails — which is likely — the House will debate the resolution. Republicans could either call for a vote right after the debate or postpone the vote to a later time.
What Democrats are doing: Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) introduced a resolution Monday to censure Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.) for his comparison of Palestinian civilians to Nazis.
Mast, though, told us that he was not concerned by Jacobs’ push to censure him and that he stood by his comments.
“I guess she’s the kind of politician that makes it so we lose wars,” Mast said of Jacobs. “[She] doesn’t look at the truth and facts.”
But some members aren’t happy with the never-ending censure efforts. Several lawmakers also raised First Amendment concerns.
Reps. John Duarte (R-Calif.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who voted to table Greene’s resolution last week, said they’re unconvinced by all these efforts to punish members’ comments.
“I’m fairly strong on First Amendment grounds,” Duarte told us. “If we don’t stand by the First Amendment, we’re going to end up having a censure every morning.”
— Mica Soellner and Max Cohen
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ELECTION DAY
The top storylines on Election Day
It’s Election Day in America, with key races stretching from Rhode Island to Ohio to Virginia. But first, some California House news:
The Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC is endorsing Rudy Salas’ campaign to unseat Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.). Valadao is one of 18 House Republicans who represent a seat that President Joe Biden won in 2020. The incumbent Republican defeated Salas — a state legislator — by two points in 2022.
Here’s what else we are on the lookout for today:
Rhode Island special election: The House Democratic Caucus will almost certainly welcome Gabe Amo into its ranks following the special election in Rhode Island’s 1st District. Amo, a former White House staffer and son of Ghanaian and Liberian immigrants, is heavily favored to win in the strongly Democratic district.
The special election to fill former Rep. David Cicilline’s (D-R.I.) seat will mean there will be 213 Democrats in the House. One vacancy — in Utah’s 2nd District – will remain for another two weeks.
Abortion rights on the ballot in Ohio: Ohioans are voting on whether to enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution. The Buckeye State — once a key presidential battleground state — has trended Republican in recent cycles. But a victory for pro-abortion rights activists in Ohio would be another sign that the issue is salient in GOP-leaning areas ahead of 2024.
Virginia state legislature: Control of both chambers of Virginia’s state legislature is up for grabs today. GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin has been heavily involved in trying to bring total Republican control to the commonwealth.
The results could provide a preview of what’s to come next fall when there will be a number of key House battleground races in the Old Dominion State.
— Max Cohen
Bipartisan group requests data on ‘burden’ of swipe fees on federal budget
We’ve got another salvo to report in Washington’s credit card wars. This time, pro-retail lawmakers are trying to pull the finances of the federal government into the fight.
A bipartisan group of House members and senators will send a letter this afternoon to Comptroller General Gene Dodaro that asks for a full accounting of how much the federal government itself has been spending on credit card swipe fees in recent years.
Led by Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas) and Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the members say they’re “concerned with the increasing burden of interchange fees paid by the federal government, an issue that affects countless taxpayers and nearly every federal agency.” The lawmakers estimate that “excessive fees” could cost the federal budget more than $200 million a year.
Several of the lawmakers signing on to this letter have been pushing for a vote on the Credit Card Competition Act. That bill is an attempt to undercut the market dominance of payment giants Mastercard and Visa by requiring the firms to offer another choice of payment processor on their cards. Banks have been fighting that legislative effort fiercely.
Here’s more from the letter, which you can read in full here.
Other signees will include Sens. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and Peter Welch (D-Vt.) and Reps. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.) and Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.).
— Brendan Pedersen
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