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THE TOP
Happy Tuesday morning.
Will the Senate Democratic campaign arm commit to backing the Democratic nominee in one of the most closely watched races of 2024?
It seems like a pretty simple question. But most Senate Democrats won’t answer it directly.
Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego’s entrance into the Arizona Senate race has paralyzed Democratic leaders — at least temporarily — as they ponder what will be a major decision with far-reaching implications for control of the Senate and a seat they badly need to hold onto.
Few Democrats would tell us last night whether they favor backing the eventual Democratic nominee or incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who left the party in December. Their responses were pretty consistent: It’s too early to say.
“We haven’t been thinking about that. That’s down the road,” DSCC Chair Gary Peters (D-Mich.) said. “Sen. Sinema is a friend of mine, and I don’t know if she’s planning on running or what her intentions are, and I don’t want to get out in front of what she wants to do.”
But it really isn’t too early. Donors, activists, lawmakers, lobbyists and other political actors will look toward the party’s campaign apparatus to make decisions about who to give money to during the 2024 election, which is absolutely underway.
Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.), one of the DSCC’s vice chairs for the cycle, laughed when we posed the question to her, but then added: “We don’t even know what Sen. Sinema’s plans are. She’s my colleague.”
“It’s way too soon to get into that,” said the Senate’s No. 2 Democrat, Dick Durbin of Illinois. “We don’t even know who’s going to file for any office in any state at this point.”
Sinema’s fellow Arizonan, Sen. Mark Kelly (D), said he wanted to “put the politics aside” and not “get ahead of anybody.”
More from Kelly: “I’ve worked very closely with Sen. Sinema for a long period of time. She’s a very effective member. But I’m not going to get ahead of her on 2024, or anybody else.”
Why the dodges? It’s an awkward situation for Democrats, who haven’t confronted a dynamic like this in a while. The DSCC’s mission is usually quite straightforward: back the Democratic nominee in each race and spend money on their behalf.
Part of the reason for Democrats’ squeamishness is internal politics. Party leaders don’t want to be seen as stepping on Sinema before the 46-year-old senator reveals whether she’s running again.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer also still needs her vote in a 51-49 Senate. It’s not quite as critical as last Congress, when the chamber was split 50-50. But it’s still close, especially when vulnerable Democrats need some slack this cycle. Sinema receives her committee assignments from Democrats and votes with them overwhelmingly, especially on nominees.
The Democratic hesitancy isn’t stopping Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), however, who praised Sinema and signaled he’d back her over a Democratic nominee.
“I don’t always agree with her, but I think having a voice like that — she says what she thinks. And I think she adds value to the caucus,” Hickenlooper told us. “She’s caucusing with Democrats. The problem is she’s too moderate as a Democrat — well, that’s half the time what they say about me!”
Hickenlooper noted that Sens. Angus King (Maine) and Bernie Sanders (Vt.) also caucus with Democrats even though they’re technically Independents. “I can’t imagine not supporting her,” the Colorado Democrat declared.
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said he’s “totally supportive” of Sinema and said his party’s leaders “should support someone who brings basically some peace, if you will, or some rational thinking on some of this stuff without being pushed far left and far right.”
Sinema declined to answer questions about whether she would run for reelection or Gallego’s challenge. As she exited the Senate chamber last night, she remarked that Washington was cold and said she needed a jacket. (Fact check: True!)
The controversy adds yet another wrinkle in Democrats’ strategy for 2024, as they’re already facing one of their toughest maps in recent memory. Arizona is a must-win state for the party, and a three-way race between Sinema, a Democrat and a Republican could hand the seat to the GOP.
What’s more, comparing Sinema to King and Sanders isn’t exactly apples to apples, since the latter two haven’t really faced a legitimate challenger before.
If Sinema decides to retire from the Senate, that makes the DSCC’s job a lot easier. They’d just back Gallego or whoever becomes the Democratic nominee. If Sinema announces a reelection bid, though, we’ll be having the same conversation with Democratic leaders all over again.
— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan
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Parents have support when it comes to keeping their teens safe on Instagram.
How: Once supervision on Family Center is set up, parents can see who their teen follows, who follows them and any reports their teen shares.
DEPT. OF POOR PLANNING
McHenry bowed out of leadership. But now he’s at the center of everything
Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), an 18-year veteran of the House, took a pass on running for House leadership this year, preferring to stay atop his perch on the House Financial Services Committee. Those close to McHenry say he wanted to stay focused on policy and out of the rough-and-tumble of running the House.
What good that did him.
McHenry has found himself in the middle of a series of the Capitol’s most charged battles so far this year.
→ | McHenry helped elect his close ally and longtime friend Kevin McCarthy as speaker. Along with a group of McCarthy friends and allies, McHenry negotiated with GOP hardliners to push the California Republican over the finish line. It was reminiscent of McHenry’s work as chief deputy whip during the Trump era. |
→ | McHenry is expected to be the leading voice pushing for Republicans to raise the debt limit. Financial institutions large and small are under McHenry’s purview at Financial Services, and banks are especially keen to avoid a debt-limit showdown. As we wrote last week, volatility in financial markets will be one of the earliest consequences of prolonged debt-ceiling brinkmanship. |
→ | McHenry’s committee is playing a key role on a much-anticipated culture war battleground – what Republicans often call “woke finance.” This accusation most often comes up when financial regulators start talking about climate change but also extends to broader social goals among corporate America. |
McHenry’s approach here has already generated some bipartisan pushback. The North Carolina Republican started his tenure as Financial Services chair by dismantling a subcommittee dedicated to bolstering diversity and inclusion in the financial system – a move Democrats have lambasted.
But McHenry’s attempt to balance that change by directing each House Financial Services subcommittee to focus partly on diversity and inclusion has also generated blowback from conservatives.
Part of this is natural selection, in a sense. In the House, an unruly institution, leaders lean on those with experience. McHenry has a fascinating history in the chamber. He arrived as a 29-year-old rabble-rouser in the George W. Bush era, only to mellow and join the leadership. That – combined with his relationship with McCarthy – makes him someone to closely watch during this Congress.
Also: Read the PM edition for our dive into the House Rules Committee. We explain why McCarthy’s choice to add staunch conservatives to the panel could change the way the House operates.
– Jake Sherman and Brendan Pedersen
DIGITAL DISPATCH
French Hill wants to work with Senate Dems, Treasury on crypto
The 118th Congress may be one of the most crucial for the future of national crypto policy, and Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.) is going to be smack dab in the middle of it.
We caught up with Hill, who’s set to serve as Congress’ first ever subcommittee chair to focus on crypto policy – the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Digital Assets.
While Hill hasn’t been one of the loudest voices on crypto policy, he’s played key roles around emerging financial technology policy for years. In the 116th Congress, the Arkansas Republican was the ranking member on two new HFSC task forces studying fintech and artificial intelligence.
And like most Republicans on the committee, he’s generally supportive of crypto and other emerging technologies in finance that could, in theory, bring about “greater efficiencies, vibrant innovation, and financial inclusion” for Americans, to quote a letter he signed with other lawmakers in 2019.
Here are some key takeaways from our conversation:
→ | Hill isn’t too worried about crypto’s influence on Congress. |
This subject has garnered a lot of attention since the collapse of FTX and its CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, the one-time political mega donor accused of financial wrongdoing, including federal campaign finance violations.
But Hill’s position is that crypto’s political spending isn’t much different from other sectors trying to influence the House Financial Services Committee:
“In my view, each member has to analyze their own relationship with both individual and PAC-related donors, how that fits in with their operating system as a member of Congress and the needs for raising funds for their campaign. On the surface of it, I don’t view this as disproportionately different from other sectors of the economy that have active PAC solicitations.”
At the same time, Hill said FTX’s “overwhelming” approach to political spending should be closely scrutinized for any campaign finance violations.
→ | Hill won’t start from scratch on stablecoin reform. |
In the 117th Congress, lawmakers came close to securing a deal on regulating stablecoins, a crypto product that tries to mimic private currency by maintaining a set value, like $1 USD. Regulators have flagged the potential systemic risks of a big-enough stablecoin collapsing for some time now.
With Republicans now in charge of the House, we asked Hill if the chamber’s approach to stablecoins would change much. Hill said it wouldn’t, nodding to work already done between former Chair Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) and incoming Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.).
Hill also suggested that recent shifts at the Senate Banking Committee could help clinch a deal between the chambers. Senate Banking has a new top Republican, Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.). And Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) signaled late last year he was ready to consider crypto legislation after months of resistance.
→ | Hill wants to cooperate with the Biden administration on digital asset policy. |
That wasn’t a given heading into this year. House Republicans are going to be a thorn in the side of federal regulators for the next two years.
But Hill told us his colleagues “hope that we’ll have leadership from [Treasury Secretary] Janet Yellen and Treasury, helping us make sense of the best course of action of how we properly oversee digital assets on behalf of both investors and consumers, users and developers.”
What role each of the federal financial regulators will play in crypto policy is still a matter of debate, though – one that Congress will have to step into at some point.
For now, Hill isn’t trying to pick favorites. “We need to engage with all aspects of the financial services regulators,” he said, “because look: when you’re looking at digital assets, you’re touching every aspect of this – trading, value, payment, custodianship, trusteeship.”
“Every aspect needs to be thought through very carefully,” Hill said.
– Brendan Pedersen
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THE CAMPAIGN
New: Sabato’s Crystal Ball is starting off the 2024 Senate cycle by rating West Virginia’s Senate race “Leans Republican.” Of course, this is Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) seat in the ruby-red Mountaineer State.
The pro-GOP classification of Manchin’s potential reelection run is further indication of the uphill task facing Senate Democrats in 2024. The brutal map may get even worse for Democrats if red-state senators such as Manchin and Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) opt to retire.
Three races are rated as toss-ups by Sabato’s Crystal Ball — Ohio, Montana and Arizona. All three are currently held by senators who caucus with Democrats. Only one – Sen. Sherrod Brown – has so far declared he’s running again.
In total, Sabato’s Crystal Ball ranks 50 seats in Republican control (either leans, likely or safe Republican) as compared to 47 seats in Democratic control.
Remember: In the Crystal Ball’s final rating of the 2022 campaign season, the election forecasting site predicted Republicans would win back control of the Senate and control 51 seats. Democrats ended up winning 51 seats, of course. So grain of salt and all that.
— Max Cohen
JOB MOVES
Chris Marroletti, a top aide for Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), is leaving the Hill to set up his own consulting firm, Three Ponds Consulting LLC. The firm will “provide strategic operations support to elected officials, political candidates, corporations, and executives across the country.”
Marroletti is an institution for Senate watchers. If you’ve seen Romney anywhere during the last few years, Marroletti is there. Literally an arm’s length away. Senators, U.S. Capitol Police, staffers, and reporters all know him. Jan. 6, two impeachment trials, the Covid-19 pandemic – Marroletti was a constant presence.
Marroletti has been deputy chief of staff for operations for Romney, serving as a top personal aide and overseeing operational and security planning for four years. Prior to that, Marroletti directed operations for Speaker Paul Ryan’s political office and served on the staff of Speaker John Boehner. In fall 2022, he was an operations consultant for Joe O’Dea’s Senate campaign. Marroletti still plans to be involved in Romney’s political operation.
A Pennsylvania native, Marroletti graduated from Villanova University with a bachelor’s degree in political science and master’s in public administration.
– John Bresnahan
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MOMENTS
10:15 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get the daily intelligence briefing. Vice President Kamala Harris will attend.
11:30 a.m.: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and others will speak about abortion rights at the Senate Swamp. … Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) and other senators will talk about their trip to “Abraham Accord countries.”
12:15 p.m.: Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) will talk about their trip to Ukraine.
1:30 p.m.: Karine Jean-Pierre will brief.
2 p.m.: Senate Republicans and Democrats will hold stakeouts following their closed-door lunches.
3 p.m.: Biden will host House and Senate Democratic leaders. Harris will attend.
5 p.m.: Biden will host a reception for new members of Congress.
5:10 p.m.: Reps. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) and Jim Banks (R-Ind.) will talk about border security.
CLIP FILE
NYT
→ | “News Analysis: The NATO alliance is holding strong on Ukraine, but fractures are emerging,” by David E. Sanger and Eric Schmitt |
→ | “7 Dead in Shootings in Half Moon Bay,” by Holly Secon, April Rubin and Jesus Jiménez in Half Moon Bay, Calif. |
WaPo
→ | “For Ukraine, what’s so special about Germany’s Leopard 2 tanks?” by Adam Taylor, William Neff and Daniel Wolfe |
AP
→ | “Kansas senator’s reelection campaign scammed out of $690K,” by John Hanna in Topeka, Kan. |
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Teens’ experiences on Instagram should be positive and supportive.
That’s why we have tools to help teens see less sensitive content and help them spend less time on our platform.
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
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