The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Johnson’s jam: It’s a new Congress but the same problems

The Senate’s ‘syllabus week’ — and what Thune will tell senators

Inside the FBI briefing on NOLA, Vegas attacks

Trump-linked lobbying shop continues to add new clients

THE TOP

Johnson’s jam: It’s a new Congress but the same problems

Happy Friday morning.

Welcome to the 119th Congress! If you’re new to Capitol Hill or Washington, subscribe to Punchbowl News.

Legislative business starts today at 11 a.m. with the closing of the 118th Congress. The new Congress begins at noon with the quorum call and the vote to elect a speaker.

And the 119th Congress will kick off with drama. Speaker Mike Johnson is facing an alarming revolt from conservative hardliners. Does this sound familiar? President-elect Donald Trump has been lobbying Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) on Johnson’s behalf, as we scooped for you on Thursday. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a frequent Johnson critic, is backing him. But this may not be enough.

Johnson has a tenuous single-digit majority, while a dozen hardliners have publicly questioned whether he deserves to remain speaker.

Let’s be clear: It’s entirely possible that Johnson could lose the speakership today or this weekend, or that the balloting goes more than one round.

The latest. Johnson spent Thursday making phone calls and holding meetings in his Capitol office in a bid to shore up his vote count. Johnson met with members of the House Freedom Caucus, including Roy and GOP Reps. Ralph Norman (S.C.) and Victoria Spartz (Ind.), both of whom are still publicly undecided on whether they’ll back the Louisiana Republican again.

During the meeting, hardliners aired various grievances about Johnson while laying out a number of process reforms they want enacted. These include assurances on spending cuts, pay-fors and the use of the so-called suspension calendar, among other things. Johnson told reporters he’s “open” to some of these ideas.

Yet the most controversial topic discussed by far was whether Johnson should appoint Roy as chair of the Rules Committee. This has been one of the asks from some of the Freedom Caucus holdouts, we’re told by multiple sources. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) even raised it publicly in an interview on OANN. We wrote about the Roy-for-Rules-Committee-chair push Thursday morning.

But GOP leadership sources insist Johnson isn’t considering making Roy the Rules chair.

Roy has been a huge problem for Johnson and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy since he was added to the Rules panel, which controls what legislation gets on the floor and how it’s considered. Making Roy the chair would be an incredibly risky move for Johnson. It would give Roy gigantic sway over what gets to the floor and spur a backlash from moderates.

Roy was tight-lipped leaving the speaker’s office Thursday, as were other holdouts. The conservatives said they expect to speak with Johnson again before the roll-call vote today. Johnson, however, insisted on multiple occasions Thursday he’d win on the first ballot.

Remember this — for every inch Johnson yields to conservatives, he risks losing trust with the middle of the conference.

The scenarios. We wanted to lay out the three most likely scenarios for Johnson and the House, as well as the internal dynamics driving these potential outcomes.

1) Johnson wins on the first ballot. For much of Thursday, GOP leadership aides and lawmakers – even those who distrust Johnson – told us they thought the Louisiana Republican would win on the first ballot. But that’s far from certain at this point.

The case being made to us was that the opposition to Johnson was pretty tame aside from Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who is absolutely going to vote against Johnson. A source told us that the entire freshman class of House Republicans will vote for Johnson.

The biggest knock against Johnson is that he was unable to force Senate Democrats and President Joe Biden to accede to his demands during divided government. The new governing dynamic for 2025 — Trump in the White House, Johnson as speaker and John Thune as Senate majority leader — will be far different. In reality, whatever Trump says will go. Johnson will be on a very short leash executing that agenda.

Johnson has big plans for the next week. House Republicans are scheduled to gather at Fort McNair in Southwest Washington on Saturday to talk about their plans for reconciliation. The elected leadership has its retreat on Sunday in Baltimore. On Monday, the House will gather to certify Trump’s Electoral College victory.

2) Multiple ballots. This seems within the realm of possibility at this point – something that Johnson’s aides are admitting privately. Think about just how many Republicans are wobbly on Johnson’s leadership: Roy, Boebert, Norman, and Spartz, along with GOP Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Eric Burlison (Mo.), Tim Burchett (Tenn.), Andrew Clyde (Ga.), Eli Crane (Ariz.), Michael Cloud (Texas), Andy Harris (Md.) and Scott Perry (Pa.).

If just one of them votes with Massie for another named candidate besides Johnson, the speaker can’t win.

There are two ways Johnson can handle losing on the initial vote. Johnson can seek a recess, attempt to cut a deal with his opponents and then try again. Or he can keep plowing through.

But a prolonged floor fight could endanger Johnson’s support from Trump, by far his most important ally. And the longer Johnson hangs out there, the more likely it is that the middle of the conference begins looking for other candidates. So it’s in Johnson’s interest to do everything in his power to wrap things up quickly.

Cutting a deal with his detractors would probably mean Johnson would have to negotiate changes to the rules package, which his team is adamant he isn’t willing to do.

3) A new speaker. The worst-case scenario for Trump and Republicans is that Johnson gets booted. There is no obvious alternative to the Louisiana Republican. If Republicans dump Johnson, tensions between House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Majority Whip Tom Emmer and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) will again burst into public view.

— Jake Sherman, Melanie Zanona and John Bresnahan

THE SENATE

The Senate’s ‘syllabus week’ — and what Thune will tell senators

All eyes will be on the Senate in the opening stages of the 119th Congress as GOP leaders hash out a border-focused reconciliation package and work to confirm President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees.

Except for today.

While all of official Washington is fixated on the House speaker drama, the Senate’s business on this “first day of school” will be largely ceremonial and, dare we say, drama-free. One Senate GOP aide jokingly compared it to “syllabus week” from college.

The Senate will convene at noon and complete some procedural business before the newly elected and reelected senators are officially sworn in. After that, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are expected to speak.

News: Thune will pledge to preserve the legislative filibuster, according to prepared remarks Punchbowl News obtained.

Thune will say that the filibuster “has perhaps the greatest impact in preserving the Founders’ vision of the Senate,” vowing to “ensure that the Senate stays the Senate.”

This is important for two reasons. First, Trump could very well call for the end of the filibuster, as the president-elect did multiple times during his first term. Senate Republicans resisted those calls at the time.

Secondly, the issue could pop up again sooner rather than later as GOP leaders craft the initial reconciliation package. The measure will center on border security, energy and defense, but the “Byrd Bath” could force Republicans to consider overruling the Senate parliamentarian on whether to ax certain provisions. That’d be akin to weakening the filibuster.

In his floor speech, Thune will also promise to pass individual appropriations bills and a farm bill. And Thune plans to lean on some of the themes of his leadership run from last year — “empowering committees, restoring regular order, and engaging in extended debate on the Senate floor.”

Schumer, we’re told, will reiterate what he told us earlier this week about not letting bipartisan dealmaking fall by the wayside as Republicans focus on their party-line budget reconciliation bills. He’ll also preview some Democratic priorities.

Noms: Later in the afternoon, the Senate is likely to adopt its organizing resolution for the 119th Congress. As we explained Thursday, this is the mechanism for officially handing control of Senate committees to the GOP.

Because most committees require a seven-day notice for committee business, it’s unlikely that there will be any Cabinet confirmation hearings next week.

That means next week will feature another dash of meetings between senators and Trump’s Cabinet nominees. The top-tier nominees have all met with nearly every GOP senator, so we’ll start to see a lot more sit-downs with Democrats.

As we scooped Thursday, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii) — Trump’s nominee for director of national intelligence — is scheduled to meet with Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), the Intelligence Committee vice chair, on Monday. This will be an early test of whether Gabbard — a former Democrat — could conceivably attract Democratic votes. Sources in both parties see this as unlikely.

The week of Jan. 13 will be extremely busy. In addition to Gabbard, Trump’s Pentagon nominee Pete Hegseth and secretary of state nominee Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) are expected to have their confirmation hearings.

— Andrew Desiderio

ONGOING INVESTIGATIONS

Inside the FBI briefing on NOLA, Vegas attacks

FBI officials faced mostly subdued questioning from lawmakers during a private briefing Thursday on the deadly New Year’s terror attack in New Orleans despite Republicans’ growing antagonism toward the agency, according to people familiar with the discussion.

During the call, Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana pressed the officials on why they weren’t more prepared for an incident like this in his home state, saying that “we’ve been hearing for a while something like this could happen.”

The FBI has become a boogeyman for the GOP following the investigations into President-elect Donald Trump both during his first term and after he left office. Republicans’ view of the bureau’s response to the attack in New Orleans, which killed at least 14, as well as the explosion of a Tesla Cybertruck outside the Trump hotel in Las Vegas Wednesday, could further inflame those tensions.

Senate Republicans are already pressing for Trump’s national security nominees — including Kash Patel, his choice to head the FBI — to be confirmed quickly in light of the incidents.

Thursday’s briefing was conducted by David Scott, the FBI’s assistant director for its counterterrorism division. Scott told lawmakers the bureau has found no evidence that the suspect in the New Orleans attack, Shamsud-Din Jabbar of Texas, had any accomplices.

Scott also told members the initial fear over potential accomplices was due to videos featuring people opening and closing coolers. The FBI disclosed those individuals were just seeking drinks.

The FBI also told lawmakers that Jabbar had three cell phones in his vehicle. The bureau has been able to unlock one phone so far.

Investigators found ​​an Islamic State flag in Jabbar’s car and he also posted five Facebook videos the morning of the attack expressing his affiliation with ISIS.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) asked the FBI if Meta had reported the ISIS-affiliated posts written by Jabbar. In the first video, Jabbar explained his subscription to ISIS ideology and in the second, he provided his will.

Scott told members that there was no connection between Jabbar and Las Vegas suspect, Matthew Alan Livelsberger, despite both men being Army veterans who overlapped at Fort Liberty and while serving in Afghanistan.

The FBI has not identified any ideology associated with Livelsberger. They told lawmakers he had explosives in his Cybertruck, which was supposed to be rented through Jan. 4.

— Mica Soellner

DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD

Trump-linked lobbying shop continues to add new clients

Ballard Partners, the lobbying shop with close ties to the incoming Trump administration, has signed 16 new clients in the last month.

The firm, anchored by Brian Ballard, a top Florida fundraiser for President-elect Donald Trump, also formerly employed Pam Bondi, the nominee to be attorney general.

Ballard most recently signed four new clients: the Anti-Defamation League, BI2 Technologies, ​Constellation Energy and ​the National Association of Chain Drug Stores.

ADL hired Ballard to lobby on “strategies and development of practices and policies to counter the rise of antisemitism in the U.S.” ADL also employs H&M Strategies and Ralph Hellmann.

BI2 Technologies is a “biometric intelligence” and identification company. Ballard will lobby for them on “I.R.I.S.- The Inmate Identification and Recognition System.”

​Constellation Energy hired Ballard to work on “executive and legislative services related to domestic energy policy and tax credits.” Constellation has Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, Capitol Tax Partners, Kountoupes Denham Carr & Reid, Mehlman Consulting, OGR, SBL Strategies and The Harple Group lobbying, on retainer as well.

And the ​National Association of Chain Drug Stores has Ballard lobbying on “Lower healthcare costs, pharmacy coverage and reimbursement issues.” Ballard will not lobby on PBM issues, their disclosure notes.

Ballard also employs former Reps. Robert Wexler (D-Fla.) and Jeff Miller (R-Fla.).

— Jake Sherman

… AND THERE’S MORE

News: Ashley Jones, President Joe Biden’s House liaison, is returning to Capitol Hill to serve as chief of staff to Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.). Jones has worked as senior adviser to Ben Ray Luján when the New Mexico Democrat was in House Democratic leadership. She was also chief of staff to Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) and former Rep. John Barrow (D-Ga.).

Capitol Hill visitors. Maryland Democratic Gov. Wes Moore will be among those speaking at the Congressional Black Caucus today. Moore also will be on hand for the swearing-in of Democratic Sen.-elect Angela Alsobrooks, the first Black woman senator in Maryland history.

New York State Attorney General Letitia James will help swear members in too.

— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

MOMENTS

CLIPS