Is Crockett going to top Talarico?

IN THIS EDITION

Inside Dems’ Texas Senate showdown

Gonzales faces ethics probe after staffer’s death

Democrats’ tariff fight facing Senate challenge

Punch Power Matrix

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Inside Dems’ Texas Senate showdown

Happy Friday morning.

FORT WORTH, Texas — Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) may have waited until the last possible day to enter the Texas Senate race. But she’s still the favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

The big question now: Can state Rep. James Talarico overtake Crockett with less than two weeks to go until the March 3 primary?

It’s not over yet. Talarico, who entered the race in September, does have one key advantage — money. Talarico has significantly more resources than Crockett, and he’s outspent the congresswoman on advertising, $11.2 million to $2.7 million. Plus, a pro-Talarico super PAC has already dropped $5 million into the race.

But Crockett has something that might be more valuable in a state as massive as Texas — a national following and extremely high name recognition.

“We’re the underdogs against Congresswoman Crockett,” Talarico said while campaigning this week in Austin. “I’m the most unknown candidate in the race, probably in either party, so it’s incumbent upon me to introduce myself to voters.”

Talarico did get a big publicity boost this week after late-night TV host Stephen Colbert accused CBS of blocking him from airing a Talarico interview out of fear of the FCC.

Yet Crockett’s penchant for sparring with Republicans from her perch on the House Oversight Committee has made for several viral moments. One clash she had with former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) was immortalized in a Saturday Night Live skit.

It’s that kind of exposure that gives the two-term House member such a huge edge in the primary. Crockett told reporters her most recent polling showed her with a close to 10-point lead over Talarico.

“When there’s a spread like that, and we’re in a shorter amount of time, then it’s not a matter of you just catching up. You’ve got to bring me down,” Crockett declared.

On the ground. Both Democrats are barnstorming the state for the start of early voting and drawing huge crowds.

Talarico filled a large event center for a rally Tuesday evening in Austin, complete with a band that opened for him and a merch stand outside. Talarico’s campaign said more than 1,000 people attended.

Crockett drew roughly 700 people, her campaign said, at an event at a church in Fort Worth Thursday morning.

Both candidates are making starkly different arguments for how to finally flip a Texas Senate seat blue.

Crockett’s pitch is that Democrats need to prioritize turning out low propensity voters rather than persuading conservative ones. Here’s what Crockett said when asked if she needed moderates and Republicans to win statewide:

Talarico, a seminarian who has drawn praise as a rare Democrat able to speak convincingly about religion, often touts his ability to win over Republican voters. In 2018, Talarico flipped a red state House district.

While Crockett has made her opposition to President Donald Trump a centerpiece of her messaging, Talarico notably hasn’t featured Trump in his advertising.

Talarico has far more resources to make his case. Talarico outraised Crockett by $5.5 million from Jan. 1 to mid-February. He brought in another $2.5 million in the 24 hours after his Colbert interview was pulled.

Asked why voters should back him over Crockett, Talarico noted that Crockett hasn’t shown she can run a competitive general election.

The super PAC backing Talarico went negative on Crockett this month with a form of that argument. The ad warned that Republicans recruited Crockett into the race because they believe she will be easier to beat.

The Senate Democratic establishment is officially remaining neutral. But privately, many in the party have similar electability concerns about Crockett. And the stakes are high. Republicans could very well nominate Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose ethical scandals may give Democrats an opening.

Getting messy. The race has become increasingly contentious in the closing days.

Crockett said this week that the idea that she wasn’t electable statewide was a “dog whistle” that was “tearing down a Black woman.” Crockett said the pro-Talarico super PAC attack ad had darkened her skin tone and was “straight up racist.”

Asked about those statements, Talarico declined to condemn the ad, noting he cannot coordinate with a super PAC. Talarico urged reporters to “fact check” that claim.

“You can look at images and put them back to back and that’s your judgment call. I would like to see if that’s true before I comment,” Talarico said.

Crockett countered that Talarico’s response was “frustrating.”

“I wouldn’t imagine that he necessarily knows my exact skin tone. He knows it enough for sure,” Crockett said. “As a Black woman and a civil rights lawyer, I stand up, I speak out on behalf of everyone.”

And remember, this incident is coming just weeks after a Texas political content creator accused Talarico of calling former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) “a mediocre Black man.” Talarico said he called Allred a mediocre campaigner but that he would “never attack him on the basis of race.”

Black voters are going to be a hugely important political bloc in this primary and a huge asset for Crockett. Early voting in Crockett’s home base in Dallas County appeared to be surging in Black communities, per early analyses.

– Ally Mutnick

ETHICS REPORT

Gonzales faces ethics probe after staffer’s death

Embattled GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales (Texas) has quietly been under investigation by the congressional ethics watchdog since last year over an alleged romantic affair with a staffer who then died by suicide.

The Office of Congressional Conduct — the independent ethics watchdog — has for months been looking into potential House rules violations related to the alleged extramarital relationship between Gonzales and his aide, the late Regina Ann Santos-Aviles, according to multiple sources.

Santos-Aviles died on Sept. 14 after pouring gasoline on herself and lighting it on fire. Santos-Aviles was married and had one child. Gonzales is married and has six children.

This means that even if Gonzales wins his March 3 GOP primary, he could face a House Ethics Committee investigation, depending on what OCC found. OCC must make a referral to the Ethics Committee to request a full-scale investigation — including subpoenas — for any lawmaker.

Under its own rules, OCC is barred from making any referral within 60 days of an election. But that referral can take place right after the election.

Members are prohibited under House Rule 23 from any “sexual relationship” with any employee under their supervision. Santos-Aviles worked in Gonzales’ office from 2021 until her death.

Soon after Santos-Aviles’ death on Sept. 14, the Daily Mail reported that Gonzales and Santos-Aviles had been romantically involved. Gonzales denied to Punchbowl News in mid-November that he and Santos-Aviles had an affair. Adrian Aviles, Santos-Aviles’ husband, told the San Antonio Express-News this week that he discovered the alleged affair in May and confronted his wife over it.

During an interview Thursday night, Bobby Barrera, Aviles’ lawyer, confirmed that his client had received an email from an Office of Congressional Conduct investigator on Nov. 25.

Several other sources confirmed that OCC investigated the case last year as well.

Gonzales’ office didn’t respond to a request for comment on the OCC investigation.

Gonzales publicly accused Barrera on Thursday of trying to “blackmail” him in return for a $300,000 payment. Aviles would sign a non-disclosure agreement in return for the payment.

But Aviles and Barrera are preparing to publicly release some of the 3,500 text messages between Gonzales and Santos-Aviles, some of which are “sexual” in nature, the New York Post reported.

Barrera said he’d been speaking with Gonzales’ lawyer “for two, three months” about a potential deal. Barrera said he suggested the NDA in exchange for the $300,000 payment. Gonzales’ lawyer didn’t respond to a request for comment.

“As that letter indicates, we did not want to ruin his career,” Barrera said. “We did not want to go public. I’m trying to do him a favor, and now he’s saying that I’m extorting him. It’s an outrageous, desperate act where he is trying to play victim once again of his own action.”

— John Bresnahan

TRADE WARS

Democrats’ tariff fight facing Senate challenge

Democrats’ campaign to pressure the GOP with a flood of votes challenging President Donald Trump’s tariffs is already faltering.

The House passed a resolution to overturn Trump’s tariffs on Canada last week. But the resolution may not qualify for privileged consideration in the Senate.

That would be a blow to Democrats’ plans because it would mean they can’t force a vote at a simple majority threshold. It would likely save Trump from having to veto the resolution and face an embarrassing rebuke from Congress.

Senate Democrats are having discussions among themselves and with the parliamentarian to try to figure out their next moves. They could still take the tariff fight to the floor in some form, although it’s unlikely to succeed. At the moment, Democrats aren’t expected to force the issue next week.

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) has been leading congressional efforts to rein in Trump’s tariffs. He successfully led a vote last year to block Trump’s tariffs on Canada.

“Sen. Kaine will continue asking colleagues to assert congressional leadership to halt foolish trade wars against allies that raise costs on Americans — instead of hiding behind procedure,” said a spokesperson for the Virginia Democrat.

The hiccup. The resolution from House Foreign Affairs Committee Ranking Member Greg Meeks (D-N.Y.) to overturn Canada tariffs had privileged status in the House, allowing Democrats to bring it up for a vote despite being in the minority

But the wording of the resolution is slightly different from similar measures that have received privileged status in the Senate and passed at a 50-vote threshold. There’s a potential problem with how the Meeks resolution cites the Federal Register, though it has the same underlying meaning as the Senate-passed version.

A House Democratic aide said there’s nothing that should preclude the resolution from being privileged in the Senate as was in the House, pointing out both chambers have voted to overturn the Canada tariffs. But the interpretation would ultimately be up to the Senate parliamentarian.

Democrats see the measure opposing Canada tariffs as their best chance to flip Republicans against Trump’s trade wars. It passed the House 219-211 with support from six Republicans.

Four GOP senators have voted for similar Senate resolutions on Canada tariffs.

Democrats’ next moves. One option for House Democrats would be attempting to force a vote on another Canada tariff resolution with tweaked language, though that would take some time.

Another measure to end the emergency declaration underpinning tariffs on Brazil ripens in the House next week. It was drafted with identical language to a similar Senate resolution, so it shouldn’t run into procedural problems.

A ruling from the Supreme Court in the case challenging Trump’s tariff regime would scramble plans on Capitol Hill. The Supreme Court has said it will release decisions today and next week.

— Laura Weiss, Andrew Desiderio and Jake Sherman

WHO’S UP, WHO’S DOWN

Punch Power Matrix

— Max Cohen

… AND THERE’S MORE

FEC News. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) outraised his primary rivals for the first few weeks of 2026. The incumbent raised $1.1 million from Jan. 1 to Feb. 11, per new FEC filings.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton raised $537,000 in the same period and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) took in just $171,000.

The Campaign. Nate Morris, the Republican who is running for Senate in Kentucky, has a new ad up in Lexington touting an endorsement from Charlie Kirk. Kirk did back Morris before he was killed last year.

Watch the ad here.

– Jake Sherman and Ally Mutnick

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