The Archive
Every issue of the Punchbowl News newsletter, including our special editions, right here at your fingertips.
Join the community, and get the morning edition delivered straight to your inbox.
March 11, 2025
Presented by RED Coalition
You voted for American energy dominance—and the Trump Administration is delivering. From solar to oil & gas, they’re unleashing it all. More energy. More jobs. Higher wages. America is booming—because when we lead, we win.
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Three days until a shutdown: Johnson vs. Jeffries
Happy Tuesday morning.
With three days until the first funding deadline of the Trump era, Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries are locked in a high-stakes power struggle with a government shutdown on the line.
Johnson, who relies heavily on President Donald Trump to pass anything, is trying to deliver nearly every House Republican vote for the CR to keep the government open until Sept. 30. At stake isn’t only keeping embattled federal agencies running, but also Trump’s agenda, which Hill Republicans are desperately trying to make progress on. And it comes as the U.S. economy and Wall Street teeter under Trump’s trade war and the DOGE-driven federal layoffs.
Jeffries, in his second term as the House Democratic leader, has gone all in on opposing the funding bill, saying his caucus “will not be complicit in the Republican effort to hurt the American people.”
Johnson has multiple holdouts. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) is the only public no, although there are others on the fence. Reps. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) and Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas) raised concerns about the measure during a GOP whip meeting on Monday, sources said.
Trump has made calls to undecided House Republicans and will continue to work the phones today, according to sources familiar with his plans.
Trump lashed out at Massie late Monday night on Truth Social for being a no: “HE SHOULD BE PRIMARIED and I will lead the charge against him.” Trump compared Massie to “Liz Chaney [sic], before her historic, record breaking fall [loss].”
Vice President JD Vance will attend the Republican Conference meeting this morning for a final lobbying blitz. OMB Director Russ Vought – a former Hill aide himself – met with GOP lawmakers on Monday night. Vought has been speaking to House Republicans one-on-one about the package.
“Trump is all in,” one House Republican leadership aide told us Monday night. “Members can’t be on the wrong side of this.”
Some of the opposition may be performative. Remember: Several House Republicans opposed giving Johnson another term as speaker in early January but buckled after Trump weighed in. Last month, a number of House Republicans backed the budget resolution only after entreaties from Trump.
But Van Duyne, a former mayor of Irving, Texas, had no problem saying no to Vought Monday evening. In a whip meeting, Van Duyne said she appreciated the time Vought took to walk through the resolution with her over the weekend but didn’t think she could get on board, according to sources in the room.
Yet the House Republican leadership feels unusually confident that they’ll be able to turn these holdouts.
The House Freedom Caucus endorsed the CR in its own statement, giving Republican leaders and the White House a boost.
In some ways, this is a mess of Johnson’s making. Johnson moved the funding deadline to March so he could get elected speaker in January. Now the Louisiana Republican is figuring out how to get out of this situation in one piece.
The minority. The real challenge for Jeffries is whether he can hold Democrats back on the floor with a shutdown on the line and the House Democratic retreat beginning Wednesday in Virginia.
Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.) and Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), the top Democrats on the House and Senate Appropriations panels, released their own 30-day CR proposal to keep federal agencies open until April 11. The two senior Democrats say this would give both sides time to find a compromise on FY 2025 spending.
Attendance. As we told you in the PM edition, Democratic absences – and possibly some yes votes – may give Johnson a boost.
As many as five House Democrats could miss the vote. And some Democrats – although only a few – may back the Republican CR. Johnson only has a one-seat margin if all members are present and voting, so any Democratic votes or absences is a boost for his side.
Senate side: Senate Democrats, who repeatedly insisted to us that they were focused on what the House could pass, took a very cautious stance on the CR when asked how they’d vote. With Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) a no, eight Democrats have to vote yes to overcome a filibuster.
Yes, key Senate Democrats trashed the GOP CR as bad policy. But these senators also reiterated they view a shutdown as an outcome no one wants. And they’re not declaring it DOA in the Senate.
“I’m waiting to see what the final version is, until then we’re not gonna make any decisions,” Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) said.
“Passing a full-year CR risks handing [Trump] a huge slush fund with which to do what he wants in ways that could be harmful to our national security,” Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) said.
Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) called the CR “awful.” Just days ago, Warner told us he preferred a CR to a government shutdown. Fellow Virginia Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine also slammed the CR, despite the huge number of federal workers in the state.
The bill was drafted with zero Democratic input. That’s a tough pill for many Democrats to swallow. But in the face of a shutdown, some may opt to hold their nose and vote yes even as a majority of the caucus votes against it.
Multiple lawmakers said they’re still holding out hope for a 30-day CR to allow appropriators time to work out an omnibus funding package. Yet that’s only a relevant scenario if House Republicans fail to pass their CR.
— John Bresnahan, Jake Sherman and Max Cohen
Happening today: The Conference will bring to life the Punchbowl News’ newsletters — AM, Midday and PM. The full day of programming will feature “The Top” with newsmaker conversations and C-Suite industry 1:1s in policy areas like The Vault, Tech and more. We’ll unpack the critical policy decisions facing Washington in 2025. Tune in for key conversations via our livestream on X!
Not a Premium subscriber yet? Get early and exclusive access to key takeaways and actionable insights from The Conference by upgrading to a Premium subscription today. You’ll get your first insights in today’s Midday newsletter along with access to additional features like monthly Q&A’s with reporters and exclusive Hill & K Street survey data. Subscribe today and save nearly 20% by going with an annual subscription.
The Vault: Republicans shrug as markets swoon, plus stablecoin latest
Financial markets have looked better. But for now, Republicans in the House and Senate are taking a wait-and-see approach to the Trump administration’s economic agenda.
Markets dove on Monday after trending downwards in recent weeks. The reality of a trade war is weighing on investors, who also see risks of a recession building in labor markets and beyond.
For now, most congressional Republicans are holding back on economic critique for President Donald Trump.
{if (profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Premium_Policy_The_Vault_I_103061 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Premium_Policy_The_Vault_II_103417 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Premium_Policy_The_Vault_III_103418 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Premium_Policy_The_Vault_14_Day_Trial_103643 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Punchbowl_News_Premium_Portal_The_Vault_Tech_121727 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Punchbowl_News_Premium_Portal_The_Vault_Tech_121821 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Punchbowl_News_Premium_Portal_Premium_Policy_The_Vault_121726 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Punchbowl_News_Premium_Portal_Premium_Policy_The_Vault_121823 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Punchbowl_News_Vault_Tech_126214 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Punchbowl_News_Vault_Tech_126263 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_All_Access_Pass == true)}
“I’m not going to give him any advice on that right now,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said to reporters Monday night after being asked about the market’s downward trend. Cornyn deferred to the wisdom of Cabinet members like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, “who’ve done very well in the market – see what their conclusions are,” Cornyn said.
The Trump administration’s approach to tariffs appears to be fueling much of the market’s worries. That’s not lost on GOP senators. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been openly wary of tariffs, and he continued to signal those worries Monday night.
“You all know my views on tariffs,” Thune told reporters. “I’m obviously in a different place on that. But I’m hoping the tariffs, when they have achieved their stated objective, will be temporary in nature.”
Others are more strident, to put it mildly. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) posted a very red infographic of the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 to X on Monday night, saying:
Most Republicans we spoke to said it was too early to determine whether the U.S. economy was poised to enter a recession. Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said talk of a recession was “premature, to say the least.”
“A couple of days, a couple of weeks even, doesn’t drive the market forever, as we know through history on that,” Lankford added.
Other Republicans are trying to take solace from conversations with policymakers like Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell.
“As Powell was saying, a lot of the fundamentals, in his view, are sound. I would say that is writ large probably true,” Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) said. “I think the long-term effects are going to be positive, where we’re going, because it’s less regulation, it’s better energy policy, it’s the tax reform that we’re doing.”
Meanwhile in crypto: The Senate Banking Committee is moving ahead with a markup of major crypto legislation this week. A bill to regulate stablecoins will be the main draw during Thursday’s session, though the panel will also weigh an industry-backed bill that would eliminate the use of “reputational risk” as a component of bank supervision.
The GENIUS Act, led by Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), has undergone some significant changes since being introduced as a discussion draft earlier this year. The latest version of the bill carves out stablecoin projects that generate interest from the definition of “payment stablecoin.” There are also new requirements for anti-money laundering controls and sanctions compliance features that will need to be finalized by the Treasury Department. Read the latest draft here.
This draft had a lot of input from Democrats, including Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.), Mark Warner (Va.) and Ruben Gallego (Ariz.). But we don’t expect progressives like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) to sign on without more significant amendments.
Meanwhile in tax: Bessent made an appearance at House Ways and Means Republicans’ full-day meeting on Monday to talk through tax bill plans. GOP members of the committee huddled through most of the day and are set to pick back up Wednesday.
Bessent is taking on a notable voice in the tax debate. He’s called for the 2017 Trump tax cuts to be extended permanently in the GOP’s tax bill. And Bessent and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett are holding regular meetings with the top Republican leaders and tax writers.
— Brendan Pedersen, Andrew Desiderio and Laura Weiss
{else}
{/if}
Cruz says he can do spectrum in reconciliation
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said he thinks Congress will be selling access to billions of dollars worth of radio spectrum as part of its massive reconciliation package, despite the concerns of lawmakers who are close to the defense establishment.
“I believe we’ll get it done in reconciliation,” Cruz told us recently of the effort to essentially privatize some Pentagon spectrum holdings.
It’s a delicate time for Cruz as chair of the Senate Commerce Committee. He’s taking a victory lap over the fact that three of the four bills the Senate has passed so far this year are his — and he put a resolution through condemning a Biden crypto regulation just for good measure.
{if (profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Premium_Policy_Tech_I_122089 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Premium_Policy_Tech_I_122100 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Premium_Policy_Tech_II_122090 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Premium_Policy_Tech_II_122101 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Premium_Policy_Tech_III_122091 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Premium_Policy_Tech_III_122091 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Premium_Policy_Tech_III_122102 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Premium_Portal_Tech_124422 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Punchbowl_News_Premium_Portal_The_Vault_Tech_121727 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Punchbowl_News_Premium_Portal_Tech_124422 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Premium_Policy_Tech_14_Day_Trial_122099 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Premium_Policy_Tech_14_Day_Trial_122088 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Punchbowl_News_Vault_Tech_126214 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_Punchbowl_News_Vault_Tech_126263 == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_All_Access_Pass == true || profile.vars.Memberful_punchbowlnews_Plan_AllAccess_Plan_69511 == true )}
As the Senate comes out of its nomination sprint, though, Cruz will be turning to spectrum — an issue where a ton of money is on the line and his own party is split.
Theoretically, spectrum sales could be worth $100 billion. That’s money that can help pay for tax cuts without even having to cut government programs. In reality, some defense hawks say talks with the pro-sale crowd have more or less broken down, as we’ve previously reported.
Cruz told us about a classified briefing he said he had with career staff at the Defense Department, who say they need most or all of the spectrum they have just to fully power defense communications.
Cruz said the presentation, which occurred before Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s swearing-in, “considered none of the downsides to their ostrich head-in-the-sand approach.” Cruz also insisted staff “had no substantive response whatsoever” to his questions about issues, like how other nations manage their airwaves.
Cruz, who has met with Hegseth on the issue, hinted the unwillingness to give up spectrum was only the Pentagon’s view “until recently.”
“I don’t believe, at the end of the day, the president will give in to that bureaucratic stonewalling,” Cruz said. “So I think we’re going to get it done on reconciliation.”
Cruz’s legislative work may be surprising given his image as an outspoken and even a disruptive conservative. We’ll note he focused on small or consensus issues — Coast Guard reauthorization, expanding court locations in his home state and punishing those who post nonconsensual nude photos online. The Senate is already turning to others’ legislation in coming days too.
Cruz said he started his time as chair by asking all members from both parties what their priorities are, though Democrats have complained about a lack of information-sharing and subpoena threats.
Cruz hinted to us there might be more of those subpoena threats for Big Tech and its handling of conservative content. The sector is a favorite target of his, although, as we scooped, his hopes for unilateral subpoena authority were dashed by the White House.
“Big Tech censorship is the single greatest threat to free speech in America and the greatest threat to free and fair elections in America,” he said. “It is my intention to use the full array of the committee’s authority to go after and to fight Big Tech censorship.”
— Ben Brody
{else}
{/if}
PRESENTED BY INSTAGRAM
PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS
Kicking off The Conference
On Monday night, we hosted a VIP Dinner at Ned’s Club to kick off The Conference, our full-day summit happening today that convenes leaders from Washington, business and media. At the dinner Punchbowl News Founder & CEO Anna Palmer and Arnold Ventures’ EVP of Public Finance George Callas gave remarks before the presentation of the New Power Player Award and the Innovator Award.
The New Power Player Award was presented to Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.), accepted on her behalf by press secretary Maya Valentine. Intuit Chief Corporate Affairs Officer Michael Kennedy then presented the Innovator Award to Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.). Thank you to Arnold Ventures for partnering with us on this dinner to kick off The Conference.
Also joining us: Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.); Naz Durakoğlu of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; Dan Kunsman of Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso’s office; Joel Miller of the House Energy & Commerce Committee; Tasia Jackson of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’s office; James Williams and Rachel Pollock of Arnold Ventures; Holly Harris of The Network; Pam Erickson, Randy Bumps and Jessica Calio of RTX; Danielle Burr of McKinsey & Company; Janetta King of Goldman Sachs; Waldo McMillan of Cisco; Paul Lindsay of Intuit; Bruce Harris of Walmart; Steve Hartell of Amazon; Lisa Camooso Miller of ROKK Solutions; Heather Podesta of Invariant; and Robert Zirkelbach of PhRMA.
THE CAMPAIGN
News: Rebecca Cooke, the Democrat who ran against Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) in 2024, is running again in 2026.
In a race that received tons of outside spending and national attention, Cooke fell short by just under three points. But Cooke ran ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris by five points in Wisconsin’s 3rd District. In a midterm environment that may be more favorable for Democrats, the party is eyeing a better chance to knock off Van Orden.
— Max Cohen
PRESENTED BY INSTAGRAM
Crucial Capitol Hill news AM, Midday, and PM—5 times a week
Join a community of some of the most powerful people in Washington and beyond. Exclusive newsmaker events, parties, in-person and virtual briefings and more.
Subscribe to Premium
The Canvass Year-End Report
And what senior aides and downtown figures believe will happen in 2023.
Check it outEvery single issue of Punchbowl News published, all in one place
Visit the archive
Presented by RED Coalition
You voted for American energy dominance—and the Trump Administration is delivering. From solar to oil & gas, they’re unleashing it all. More energy. More jobs. Higher wages. America is booming—because when we lead, we win.