Congress returns to a perfect storm

IN THIS EDITION

Iran, SAVE Act, DHS shutdown: The Ides of Congress’ March

Are Krishnamoorthi allies trying to split Black vote in Illinois?

What we’re watching

Majority Dems adds to its ranks

THE TOP

Iran, SAVE Act, DHS shutdown: The Ides of Congress’ March

Happy Monday morning.

With war raging in the Middle East, the Department of Homeland Security still shut down and a storm bearing down on the East Coast — again — Congress is returning to session today amid an array of problems, priorities and deadlines. The House has postponed its first votes until Tuesday afternoon due to the storm.

Oil prices are near $100 per barrel, the Strait of Hormuz is closed and at least 13 U.S. service members have died in President Donald Trump’s war against Iran. More U.S. troops and ships are heading to the embattled region. Israel is threatening to occupy parts of Lebanon — again — while Trump is warning NATO countries of a “very bad” future if they don’t send warships to help reopen the vital Persian Gulf passage (Australia has already refused).

Trump and senior administration officials are continuing their push against the mainstream media over negative coverage of the war, even threatening broadcast licenses. This tells you how the White House thinks the political side of the conflict is going, even as U.S. and Israeli bombs and missiles obliterate target after target inside Iran.

On Capitol Hill, consider what lawmakers need to tackle in the coming weeks:

— The White House, Pentagon and congressional leaders have already begun talks about a supplemental funding bill for the Iran war. We don’t expect any request to reach Capitol Hill this week, but the two sides — Hill Republicans and the White House — are trying to figure out how to pass it.

We’ve had several sources suggest the package may carry a price tag of $100 billion or more. Lawmakers see this as potentially the last must-pass bill of the year and may try to attach their own costly proposals.

Reconciliation is probably the best option for GOP leaders because there’s no chance that Democrats would allow anything to pass without a vote on ending the conflict or reining in Trump’s freedom to operate. But any new spending would have to be offset with cuts elsewhere. This package will become a huge political flashpoint over the next few weeks.

— DHS has been shut down for 30 days, a disaster for its tens of thousands of unpaid employees and the country. Security lines are getting worse at airports nationally, although Trump on Saturday implored TSA agents to “GO TO WORK!” Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) has a confirmation hearing on Wednesday to be the next DHS secretary.

— Section 702 of FISA expires on April 20, but Congress is only going to be in session for a fraction of the time between now and then. The debate roiling the House and Senate is whether to pass a clean extension of the surveillance law or try to enact reforms. The White House wants a clean extension. House Republicans listen to whatever Trump wants, although this is a unique cross-partisan issue.

— Speaker Mike Johnson is going to have a tremendously difficult time conducting any business over the next few weeks — again. Several hardline Republicans say they won’t let Johnson pass anything unless there’s progress on the SAVE America Act. They’re taking the same line on Senate-passed bills.

SAVE Act marathon. As soon as Tuesday, the Senate will kick off an unusual and messy floor process on the SAVE America Act that’s likely to last several days. It’s virtually certain to fail.

But Senate Republicans are eager to shift the narrative on SAVE, which has been marred by GOP infighting on a bill they overwhelmingly support. Senate GOP leaders hope that the chaotic debate — and the procedural hijinks it’ll allow Democrats to employ — will further demonstrate just how infeasible the proposed solution, a “talking filibuster,” really is.

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and his allies are determined to drag out the debate anyway. This will put immense pressure on Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who’ll eventually need to end the process by setting up a 60-vote threshold that Republicans won’t be able to clear.

Here’s how it’ll work.

First, the Senate will vote to proceed to the House version of the SAVE America Act. This is a simple-majority vote that may require Vice President JD Vance to break a 50-50 tie if Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) vote “no.” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) will be a “no.”

Rather than immediately filing cloture, as is customary, Thune will kick off an extended debate that will force senators to stay close to the floor for hours on end. Democrats are likely to make this as painful as possible, including using live quorum calls. Democrats are also expected to force an Iran war powers vote this week, which would interrupt the SAVE Act debate because it’s privileged.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters on Sunday that the SAVE America Act was one of the “most despicable” bills he’s ever seen, asserting it’s an attempt by Trump to “steal” the midterms.

Thune will also set up votes on amendments — either individually or all at once — on the changes Trump demanded, including on transgender issues and mail-in ballots, led by Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.). These will fail because they’ll require 60 votes. The mail-in ballot issue will split Republicans, many of whom oppose Trump’s push to significantly curtail their use.

So how long will this all last? That’s up to the bill’s most fervent supporters, who can try to block Thune from cutting off debate and move to a certain-to-fail vote on changing Senate rules.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

TOMORROW: We’ll sit down with Rep. James Walkinshaw (D-Va.) at 9 a.m. ET to discuss the news of the day, tech innovation and U.S. leadership. RSVP now to save your seat!

LAND OF LINCOLN

Are Krishnamoorthi allies trying to split Black vote in Illinois?

Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) has benefitted from more than $2.5 million in positive advertising as she competes in a three-way Democratic primary for Illinois’ open Senate seat.

Roughly half of that spend is on ads Kelly is airing herself, per AdImpact. The other half comes from a trio of groups that appear to be trying to elect her opponent, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.).

The central question ahead of Tuesday’s Senate primary is whether the presence of two Black women on the ballot, Kelly and Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, will open up a path for Krishnamoorthi to win the nomination.

Pro-Krishnamoorthi groups have played a role in exploiting this dynamic. The super PACs are boosting Kelly, using footage of former President Barack Obama praising her or touting her progressive bona fides, in what seems likely to be a ploy to siphon support away from Stratton.

“It is a deliberate attempt to split the Black vote. And the only beneficiary of that in the U.S. Senate race would be Congressman Krishnamoorthi,” Illinois Legislative Black Caucus Senate Chair Willie Preston said. “It’s disgusting and I think it’s something that has to be called out publicly.”

The strategy. Polls have shown a tight race between Stratton and Krishnamoorthi. Stratton supporters have cast Kelly as a spoiler polling in a distant third.

But Kelly is well-liked and has the backing of the powerful Congressional Black Caucus, which has bristled at what it sees as a coronation of Stratton.

Krishnamoorthi has spent some $29 million on ads, per AdImpact, giving him an early advantage. But Stratton has surged thanks to a large infusion of cash from an allied super PAC funded by billionaire Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.

Now consider this spending: Protect Progress, part of the pro-crypto Fairshake network, has dropped $435,000 on ads that boost Kelly or Krishnamoorthi and attack Stratton.

Those ads, at least some of which are running on Black radio stations, use audio of Obama praising Kelly and note she is a “real progressive” endorsed by the CBC.

The Impact Fund, a group that typically backs Indian-American candidates, has spent roughly $1 million on similar ads. Progressive Values Illinois, a group backing Krishnamoorthi, has spent nearly $600,000 on mailers that urge voters to back Kelly or Krishnamoorthi over Stratton, per FEC data.

The likely result: lower Stratton’s vote share by boosting Kelly.

Even Kelly admitted she knew the spending wasn’t designed to help her.

“Congressman Krishnamoorthi and his allies are resorting to cheap political plays in an attempt to split the vote, dilute Black political power, and save his stalled and uninspiring campaign,” Allison Janowski, a Stratton spokesperson said.

Krishnamoorthi has repeatedly said he doesn’t have “any coordination or control over” the groups, per federal law.

– Ally Mutnick

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What we’re watching

Monday: The House Rules Committee will meet this afternoon on three bills for floor consideration.

Tuesday: The House Intelligence Committee will hold its annual worldwide threats assessment hearing with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, FBI Director Kash Patel and several senior military officials.

The House Homeland Security Committee will have a hearing on Chinese AI and building a “secure U.S. technology base.” Scale AI’s global head of public policy and the head of software for Boston Dynamics will be testifying.

The House Armed Services Committee will have the commander of U.S. Southern Command on security challenges for North and South America. HASC will also have a FY2027 posture hearing with the commanders of Strategic Command, Space Command and others.

Michael Duffey, the undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, will testify in front of the House Foreign Affairs Committee on “reforming America’s defense sales.”

CBO Director Phillip Swagel will testify to the House Budget Committee about the budget and economic outlook.

Capitol Police Chief Michael Sullivan will testify about his budget request to the House Appropriations Committee. NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya will testify at an oversight hearing on Appropriations.

Wednesday: The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee will have a confirmation hearing for Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) to be secretary of homeland security.

The Senate Intelligence Committee will hear from Gabbard, Patel, Ratcliffe and other senior administration officials during its annual worldwide threats assessment hearing.

The House Armed Services Committee will have a hearing on the U.S. military posture in Europe with the commander of U.S. European Command.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will have a closed briefing about the situation in the Middle East with Steve Galpern and Donald Armin Blome of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research.

– Jake Sherman

THE DEMOCRATS

Majority Dems adds to its ranks

Majority Democrats, the Democratic group aimed to boost up-and-coming, center-left Democrats nationwide, is adding nine more elected officials to its ranks.

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who’s running for governor in California, is joining the group, as is Miami Mayor Eileen Higgins, who flipped a GOP stronghold in the fall.

North Carolina Attorney General Jeff Jackson is also being added, along with Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson and Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb.

Boise, Idaho, Mayor Lauren McLean, Canton, N.C., Mayor Zeb Smathers, Minnesota state Sen. Grant Hauschild and West Virginia state Rep. Kayla Young round out the new Majority Democrats recruits.

Majority Dems launched last year and is pushing for the party to resist attempts to become more ideologically progressive.

— Max Cohen

STAFF MOVES

Jim Durrett is joining Invariant as a principal. Durrett was until recently the deputy chief of staff to Vice President JD Vance. Durrett is a longtime Hill veteran, having worked in top-level posts for Sens. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Todd Young (R-Ind.) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.). Invariant has a slew of clients, including Toyota, Vanguard, Home Depot, The Business Roundtable, Shopify, Salesforce and RTX.

House Minority Whip Katherine Clark is getting a new policy director: Matt Lee, who previously worked as Rep. Deborah Ross’ (D-N.C.) chief of staff. The current policy director, Robin Juliano, is departing.

Speaker Mike Johnson is bringing on Callie Strock as deputy communications director. Strock joins the speaker’s office from the Small Business Administration, where she was a senior adviser. She also worked for Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.) and the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

— Max Cohen, Laura Weiss and Jake Sherman

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