The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Republicans want to move on tax cuts. The world keeps intervening.

It’s vote-a-rama time in the Senate

How Johnson could solve the proxy-voting fight

ICYMI: French Hill on tariffs, small biz and more

Indiana Dem activist eyes challenge against Carson

THE TOP

Republicans want to move on tax cuts. The world keeps intervening.

Happy Friday morning.

If you talk to Speaker Mike Johnson or Senate Majority Leader John Thune, one thing becomes immediately evident: they wish they could devote all of their time and energy to passing President Donald Trump’s tax-and-spending-cut agenda.

The only problem is that the world keeps intervening.

— Trump’s global trade war sent markets into a tailspin Thursday. The Dow was down 4%, the Nasdaq composite was down nearly 6% and the S&P 500 gave back 5%. This led to an entire day of Senate Republicans answering questions about a seemingly spiraling economy. Today won’t be much different. Futures markets are in the red again this morning.

— Johnson is in the midst of a major rebellion in the House Republican Conference over proxy voting, a dispute that has frozen the chamber. More on that in a minute.

— Trump’s top national security officials were revealed to have used the encrypted messaging app Signal to discuss sensitive military plans, forcing Republicans to answer for an embarrassing situation. The Senate Armed Services Committee has launched a bipartisan inquiry.

— Government-wide cuts, including those initiated by DOGE, are continuing to infuriate many Republicans. For example, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. cut 10,000 jobs at his agency, only to say some were a mistake.

The climate in Washington and across the country — both politically and economically — is making it much more difficult for Republicans to pass a massive tax-and-cut plan. Equity markets are getting rocked. Economists are already saying that a recession is possible. It will be difficult for Republicans to make the case that they should cut government spending. One almosts wonders if the president should’ve waited on his tariff regime until after the reconciliation bill was passed.

The last two weeks especially – with Trump’s tariff frenzy and the Signal scandal dominating – have left Senate Republicans exhausted and more grumpy than usual during their closed-door meetings, per our conversations with GOP senators this week.

And for the budget reconciliation package, the costs of failure could not be higher. A vast majority of Americans would see a tax increase. Remember, too, that Republicans are trying to use the legislation to raise the debt limit, which likely needs to be done by late spring or early summer.

“We could create an environment that would rival 2010 — in reverse,” warned Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who’s up for reelection in 2026. “Regardless of what people think, almost every election in my life has been driven about how people feel economically.”

Even if Republicans are able to pull it off, Tillis cautioned, the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs could hamper the effectiveness of the overall reconciliation package, which Republicans say is intended to spur economic growth.

“With our [2017] tax reform bill, we saw historic capital deployment… If we pass a tax bill and we have the uncertainties of the tariffs, then you’re not gonna get the same immediate response,” Tillis said. “The capital is gonna wait on the sidelines to figure out the other side of the ledger of whether or not it’s worth making the investment.”

Looking ahead. Thune was able to get his entire conference, with the exception of Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), on board with the compromise budget resolution for the first procedural vote last night. They’re on track to pass it within the next 24 hours.

But passing a budget resolution is the easy part. Once Republicans put pen to paper, there could be multiple Rand Pauls — on potential Medicaid cuts, on spending-cut levels in general, and more.

“It’s not gonna go away just because we will it to go away,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) told us of the House-Senate tensions over Medicaid cuts. “We’re just gonna be dealing with it later on.”

That’s not to mention the possible pitfalls surrounding their untested scoring method for making the tax cuts permanent, which could be subject to an unfavorable parliamentarian ruling down the line.

That could force a possible vote to overrule the Senate’s nonpartisan referee — a nightmare scenario for GOP leaders, as we noted on Wednesday. Thune has cautioned against overruling the parliamentarian, saying it would be akin to gutting the filibuster.

The outside distractions may just be a fact of life for Republicans with Trump in the White House. But Johnson and Thune need the president to help them get a reconciliation bill over the finish line. So it’s a balancing act they’ll need to master.

— Andrew Desiderio, Jake Sherman and Laura Weiss

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THE SENATE

It’s vote-a-rama time in the Senate

We’re finally beginning to see tangible progress on President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda.

Senate Republicans are making a weekend of it in Washington and will kick off a vote-a-rama on the compromise budget resolution tonight. That should wrap up by the wee hours of Saturday morning. And the House will try to take up the measure next week.

Senate Democrats will try to make the vote-a-rama incredibly painful for Republicans.

It’s amendment time: The political downside of reconciliation — which allows the Senate majority to dodge a filibuster — is that the minority party can force an unlimited number of votes on amendments before final passage. The amendments that pass will be stripped from the final version, so these votes are effectively non-binding. But the goal is to make the process as politically painful as possible for the majority party.

We expect Democrats to force votes on several issues that have divided Republicans — on everything from Medicaid cuts to tariffs.

“My colleagues and I will begin to put the Republican agenda on trial before the court of public opinion here on the floor of the Senate,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said last night as he started the debate.

“It’s going to be a long few days for Senate Republicans,” Schumer added.

And Democrats say they want to litigate as many of these arguments as possible during the daylight hours. To that end, the Senate will convene earlier than usual this morning — at 8:30 a.m. Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) are expected to kick things off for Democrats.

Schumer, in particular, will want to make this very painful for Republicans after the Democratic base was furious with him for helping the GOP keep the government open.

Got weekend plans? During Thursday’s Senate GOP lunch, Republicans discussed the possibility of staying in session through the weekend to process additional nominations, rather than taking the rest of the weekend off and returning Monday. The idea would be to begin the scheduled two-week recess a day or two earlier.

Nothing is set in stone yet, but lots of senators indicated they prefer powering through if it means leaving early for recess. Republican leaders could also dangle a time agreement to Democrats, which could allow the GOP to fast-track some of Trump’s nominees.

This could include Trump’s pick for U.S. ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, who was the subject of some drama at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee business meeting Wednesday that led to a Democratic walkout.

— Laura Weiss and Andrew Desiderio

THE SPEAKER

How Johnson could solve the proxy-voting fight

Here is a sentence we never thought we would need to write: the battle over proxy voting for new and expectant parents is turning into one of the most nettlesome issues in Mike Johnson’s speakership.

It pits Johnson against the House Freedom Caucus, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and President Donald Trump. Throw in the issue of workplace flexibility for working parents and it’s clear why the relatively inside-the-beltway issue of proxy voting has taken on a life of its own.

In many ways, this is another chapter in the House Freedom Caucus’ continuing battle against GOP leadership. The HFC – predominantly Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas), Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) – is threatening Johnson to block any bills from coming to the floor unless the speaker finds a way to cancel Luna’s discharge petition, which has already accrued the requisite 218 signatures to force a vote.

The HFC used to position itself as a vanguard of the House rules. Luna, of course, used the House rules properly in this instance to force a vote on an issue that the leadership did not want to tackle. But members of the HFC have a habit of trying to circumvent rules when they don’t work in their favor.

This has left Johnson in a very bad spot.

Luna, a 35-year-old in her second term, beat the speaker twice this week. She got 218 votes on the petition. And then she defeated Johnson’s efforts on the floor to table the discharge petition.

And Trump, with whom Luna has a good relationship, endorsed the proxy voting effort, saying, “I don’t know why it’s so controversial.”

This statement prompted an immediate call from Johnson to Trump to try to get the president to reverse. Johnson explained his opposition to Trump and hopes the president issues another statement walking back his endorsement.

Where does this go from here? The status quo right now is not sustainable. Johnson cannot bring anything to the floor as long as he, the HFC and Luna are at loggerheads.

Let’s be clear here: Johnson is the one who needs a deal – and quickly. Because if this continues to delay Trump’s legislative agenda – and it is now – the pressure on the speaker will ratchet up.

Here are some options.

1) Johnson can admit he lost, which he did, and let Luna’s resolution come up for a vote. If the HFC keeps the floor frozen, Trump can try to bend the hardline conservatives to his will, which he will probably be able to do.

2) Luna can simply delay forcing a vote on her discharge petition until after reconciliation passes. This would be a favor to Johnson and Trump. And she’d probably get rewarded for that – if she plays her cards right.

3) Johnson could try to table Luna’s resolution again next week as part of the rule to bring up the budget. This is what many figures in Johnson’s leadership want him to do. The speaker can try to break Luna’s eight-person coalition.

4) Johnson has come up with some proposals, but they seem quite far-fetched. He has offered a proposal that allows Luna to have her vote, but only allows proxy voting if she is able to amend the Constitution. We have no idea why she would take this when she could have her vote, have proxy voting begin and not try to amend the Constitution for something she doesn’t need to amend the Constitution for.

— Jake Sherman

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

ICYMI: French Hill on tariffs, small biz and more

House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) joined a Punchbowl News event yesterday where he weighed in on the Trump administration tariffs, reconciliation, digital payments, community banking and more.

If you missed it, you can watch the full video conversation here.

– Joy Mazur

THE CAMPAIGN

Indiana Dem activist eyes challenge against Carson

Rep. Andre Carson (D-Ind.) may be the latest senior Democrat to face a young primary challenger disappointed at how Washington is combating the Trump administration.

George Hornedo, a 34-year-old who has long ties with the state party, is “exploring a run” against Carson with a campaign that could launch next week. Carson has served in Congress representing Indiana’s 7th District for nine terms.

Hornedo accused Carson of being inactive in his job at a time when Democrats should take action. The potential candidate added that he wants Carson to do more as just one of two Democrats in the state delegation.

“Having a warm body in an empty suit is one thing if we were in a blue state and had this strong congressional delegation with other good Democrats in there, but that’s not the case here in Indiana,” Hornedo told us.

Hornedo also attacked Democratic leadership for doing a “piss poor” job of standing up to President Donald Trump. This mirrors similar rhetoric from other Democratic primary challengers who announced campaigns against Reps. Jan Schakowski (D-Ill.) and Brad Sherman (D-Calif.).

“Right now, [Hakeem Jeffries] is acting like a manager of the caucus, as opposed to a leader of the caucus,” Hornedo said. “I’m not sure exactly what he’s waiting on, but I’d love to see a little bit more blood lust.”

Caroline Ellert, Carson’s spokesperson, touted his history of passing bipartisan bills, background in law enforcement and focus on bringing back infrastructure projects to Indianapolis.

“He remains a powerful figure in the Democratic Party as a Midwestern voice who is able to push progressive legislation while still finding bipartisan, common-sense solutions when possible to deliver for Indianapolis residents,” Ellert said.

– Mica Soellner

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