The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

California Republicans growing more comfortable with Trump

Trump trial hurtles toward finish

Cruz looks to force vote dividing Dems on Israel

What we’re watching

THE TOP

California Republicans growing more comfortable with Trump

Happy Monday morning. Happy Memorial Day.

BUENA PARK, Calif. — We’ve talked a lot during the past two years about the group of a dozen-plus vulnerable House Republicans who hold districts President Joe Biden won in 2020. But what if these Republicans aren’t as endangered as we thought?

We’re in southern California all week talking to candidates running in competitive races that may decide control of the House. In conversation after conversation, we found rank-and-file Republicans increasingly ready to embrace former President Donald Trump in toss-up seats. Trump lost California by roughly 30 points in both 2016 and 2020, so this is a significant development.

There are five Republican incumbents in the Golden State who represent seats that Biden won. Given the razor-thin GOP House majority, if Democrats flip all these seats they could win the chamber back this fall. But it’s not so simple.

Much has changed since 2020 when Biden beat Trump in a popular vote and Electoral College landslide. Biden is currently trailing Trump in the polls nationally. He’s stuck with a 38% average approval rating. So in the mind of these at-risk Republicans, tying yourself to a well-known challenger when Biden is broadly unpopular isn’t the worst idea, despite Trump’s obvious downsides.

“I think the base is more excited than ever. The more they try to lock up President Trump, I think it does the opposite of whatever they’re trying to do,” Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.) told us. “So there is more enthusiasm, there is more energy that’s going to help the base to come out.”

Biden won Kim’s district in 2020 by just under two points. She faces Democrat Joe Kerr in November.

Farther south, Republican Matt Gunderson is challenging Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) in a San Diego-area seat Biden won by double digits four years ago. But Gunderson insisted the math is different this time around.

“Right now in our polling, Biden’s lead has diminished to 5.7%. So it’s almost half his tally last cycle,” Gunderson said. “That Trump drag impact’s not going to be the same as it has been in the past.”

Democrats are also targeting longtime incumbent GOP Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) to the east of Los Angeles. Trump won by the district around a point in 2020, and Calvert is eagerly endorsing the former president in 2024.

“My opponent’s going to be supporting Joe Biden, and I’m comfortable with that. He can support Joe Biden. I’ll support Trump, and I think the district will vote accordingly,” Calvert said. Calvert narrowly defeated Democrat Will Rollins in 2022, and two are locked in a highly-anticipated rematch this cycle.

The acknowledgment that Biden’s political standing is eroding in swing seats isn’t a radical assessment. Even in deep-blue California, there are still pockets of opposition to Biden as residents unhappy with rising crime, illegal border crossings and sky-high costs make their displeasure known.

For example, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom recently faced a recall effort and there’s fury at progressive district attorneys like George Gascón in Los Angeles County.

One of the largest disparities between Biden’s vote share and the congressional ballot is in California’s 27th District. Biden triumphed by 12 points in 2020 but GOP Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) has won three tough elections in a row. Democrat George Whitesides is Garcia’s opponent this cycle. Garcia, a retired Navy pilot, just signed onto the Veterans and Military Families for Trump initiative.

In the 45th District seat, which supported Biden by 6 points over Trump, Republican Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) told us “it doesn’t really matter” what happens on the top of the ticket. Steel said she’s continuing to employ aggressive canvassing and on-the-ground operations.

The Democratic view: Democrats, for their part, are happy to talk about Trump and think their GOP counterparts are making a major mistake here. For all the talk of Biden’s poor poll numbers, only 42% of Americans view Trump favorably.

Steel’s opponent, political newcomer Derek Tran, refers to the incumbent as “MAGA Michelle.”

“She’s part of that extreme movement that’s out of touch with the people of the 45th district,” Tran said. “She’s taken money from MTG. She’s just recently taken a picture with canine killer Kristi Noem.”

There’s also nothing that unites the Democratic base quite like a hatred of Trump. While we were in Irvine on Sunday accompanying Democrat Dave Min (D-Calif.) knocking on doors for his campaign to fill the toss-up 47th District, voters kept bringing up Trump as their top issue.

“He’s just crazy,” one Democratic voter told Min.

— Max Cohen

Programming note: We only have AM editions this week. Thanks for reading and enjoy your recess.

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INVESTIGATION NATION

Trump trial hurtles toward finish

Closing arguments are set to begin Tuesday in President Donald Trump’s criminal trial in New York City. Then it will be up to a jury to decide whether Trump becomes the first former president convicted of a crime — in the middle of his bid to return to the White House no less.

The political stakes have been growing for Republicans on Capitol Hill. Speaker Mike Johnson and other Republicans personally have attended the trial to demonstrate their loyalty to Trump. Trump, in turn, formally endorsed Johnson’s reelection to Congress on Sunday night, one of a slew of such endorsements issued by the former president. Another was Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), who is unopposed for Senate GOP whip in the next Congress.

For his part, House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) continues to press his own investigation into Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg over the case. In turn, Bragg has sued Jordan over his “transparent campaign to intimidate and attack” the Manhattan DA’s office.

Senate Republicans have embraced Trump as they seek to win the majority in November, angling for his endorsement throughout primaries this year. NRSC Chair Steve Daines — like his House GOP counterparts — has openly allied himself with Trump.

All of this makes the verdict even more problematic for House and Senate GOP leaders. There’s no running from Trump or his legal problems, even though Trump has succeeded spectacularly so far in dragging out the legal proceedings in his other three criminal cases. Every Republican on Capitol Hill will have to defend a Trump conviction in the Big Apple. Conversely, every Republican would benefit from a Trump acquittal.

Republicans have attacked Bragg, President Joe Biden and Democrats generally for “weaponizing” the justice system against them. It’s a little harder to make that argument with one of Hunter Biden’s criminal cases set to begin next week, or the bribery indictments against Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) and Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas).

The Republicans’ goal is to avoid talking about underlying allegations in Trump’s NYC case. Trump is accused of falsifying business records to cover up hush money to porn star Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about an extramarital affair as the 2016 presidential campaign entered its final stages. Trump allegedly falsely claimed they were business expenses.

Capitol Hill reporters have repeatedly pressed Johnson on whether it was appropriate to have the speaker of the House attending a trial involving allegations of secret payments to a porn star by a candidate for president. Johnson’s response:

– John Bresnahan

THE SENATE

Cruz looks to force vote dividing Dems on Israel

Republicans aren’t done trying to squeeze Democrats over President Joe Biden’s recent decision to pause some bomb shipments to Israel.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has come up with a creative approach that could circumvent Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and force vulnerable Democratic senators to take a difficult vote — if the resolution wins privileged status.

Cruz is planning to file a War Powers Resolution that would eventually compel the Biden administration to abandon the pier that was constructed to ease the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza.

During and since the construction of the U.S. pier, there have been attacks on the area where it’s located. Cruz argues that a War Powers Act vote is applicable here, although the Pentagon hasn’t reported any combat-related injuries for U.S. personnel and Biden says no Americans will enter Gaza. All War Powers votes are privileged, meaning the majority party can’t block them from getting a floor vote.

“The Biden White House’s foreign policy is utterly backwards,” Cruz told us. “He is blocking weapons to Israel… and he has just recently spent hundreds of millions of dollars building this pier in Gaza to continue providing aid to Gaza that will go directly to Hamas.”

Ultimately, the Senate parliamentarian has the authority to determine whether the resolution is privileged based on the hostilities around the pier. Here’s a good CRS report on the use of War Powers Resolutions.

A source familiar with the matter said the parliamentarian has given a “preliminarily favorable ruling,” although opponents still have a chance to make their case.

If all goes according to Cruz’s plan, a vote could take place in early June when the Senate returns from the Memorial Day recess.

There’s little sign that any significant amount of aid has reached Gazans via the $320 million pier. Part of the structure was damaged in a recent storm.

For his part, Cruz is openly saying this effort is intended to divide Democrats:

This could be a tough vote for several Democrats in the Senate. Until now, Republicans have only been able to force difficult Israel-related votes in the House because of their party’s narrow majority there.

Earlier this month, House Republicans passed a bill — with the support of a handful of Democrats — that seeks to prevent Biden from interrupting the flow of U.S. weapons to Israel. This was in direct response to Biden’s decision to delay a shipment of heavy bombs to Israel.

Cruz said he would prefer for the Senate to hold a vote on his proposal that mirrors that House measure. Schumer has signaled he won’t bring that up in the Senate, noting that the White House had issued a veto threat.

“The power of the War Powers Resolution is that Schumer can’t block the vote,” Cruz asserted.

We’ll note that Cruz opposed a bipartisan January 2020 War Power Resolution offered by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) when then-President Donald Trump ordered a U.S. missile attack on Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani near the Baghdad International Airport. U.S. officials said Soleimani was an imminent threat to American forces in the region. Both the House and Senate passed the Kaine resolution, which was then vetoed by Trump.

— Andrew Desiderio

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What we’re watching

Wednesday: The House Judiciary Committee’s subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement has a hearing on border problems in North Dakota. Drew H. Wrigley, North Dakota’s attorney general, will testify.

The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, also known as the Helsinki Commission, will have a briefing on Ukrainian culture in wartime.

– Jake Sherman

THE CAMPAIGN

WinSenate, which is funded by Senate Majority PAC, the Democratic super PAC, is up with a new ad in Milwaukee and Green Bay, Wis., criticizing Eric Hovde, the Republican candidate looking to knock off Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.). The spot knocks Hovde for being a millionaire “California bank CEO.”

– Jake Sherman

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