📝 The Readback: Dems face a tough map

IN THIS EDITION

Can Dems overcome a tough Senate map?

Cornhole confessional

Vote results: Your favorite Punchbowl News scoop

THE TOP

Can Dems overcome a tough Senate map?

Welcome to The Readback. We hope you’re enjoying some recess downtime as much as we are after months of non-stop action. Our weekend digest features the best of Punchbowl News this week – a quick roundup of all our scoops, analysis and Capitol Hill insight you won’t find anywhere else. We’ve also included a few of our favorite outside reads from the week.

I wanted to dedicate this Readback to a question I get asked a lot: Can Democrats win back the Senate?

In mid-July, my colleague Andrew Desiderio and I sat down with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer when he predicted that the reconciliation bill’s passage would put the Republican majority at risk.

At the time, it seemed like an overly optimistic promise. Frankly, it still is unrealistic. But there have been several key developments over the ensuing month that have shifted some key races toward Democrats.

— On Tuesday, we reported that former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) was planning on entering the Ohio Senate race. Brown did lose in 2024. But he’s without a doubt the best recruit Democrats could have hoped for in Ohio.

— Earlier Tuesday, another Democrat — state Rep. Josh Turek — jumped into the Iowa Senate Democratic primary. As rumors swirl over whether Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) will run again, Democrats are sensing an opportunity to win in the Hawkeye State.

— Over in Texas, GOP Sen. John Cornyn continues to spar with Attorney General Ken Paxton in a high-stakes primary that’s concerning the top Senate GOP super PAC.

— In late July, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper jumped into the open North Carolina Senate race. Cooper is widely viewed as the best Democratic recruit of the cycle.

— In Georgia, GOP Gov. Brian Kemp’s allies are lining up behind Derek Dooley, a political newcomer locked in a brutal primary against Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter. The messy GOP dynamic is only helping incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.).

So how can Democrats win the majority?

First, they need to protect Georgia and Michigan. Michigan is a question mark for the party given the wide-open Democratic primary, while Republicans are united behind 2024 candidate, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.).

Second, Democrats need to win the two most attainable GOP-held seats: North Carolina and Maine. While Cooper is a boost in North Carolina, Democrats don’t yet have a top-tier candidate in Maine and are waiting on Gov. Janet Mills.

Let’s assume — and it’s a big assumption — that everything goes to plan in these four key states for Democrats. That would leave the chamber at 51-49 in favor of Republicans.

Third, Democrats need to flip a further two Republican-held seats. Where could they triumph? Ohio and Iowa are opportunities. If Paxton wins in Texas, that seat could be in play. If Democrats recruit former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) to run against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), an upset may be in the cards.

In Nebraska, Democrats will hope Dan Osborn can recreate his 2024 magic against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.).

These are all long shots. So it’s fair to be skeptical of Democratic chances. But there’s a long way to go until November 2026!

What I’m watching: The night sky over glorious Voyageurs National Park in northern Minnesota. Happy recess!

– Max Cohen

You can find The Readback in your inbox every Saturday at 8 a.m. And don’t hesitate to reach out to [email protected] with feedback. Enjoy The Readback.

Cornhole confessional

Once a year – give or take – the Punchbowl News team comes together for a cornhole tournament. And this year’s contest happened on Tuesday.

At this point, the tradition is almost as old as the company. The first games I can recall playing happened at a holiday party in 2022, in the upper level of the Georgetown Pinstripes.

Back then, it was a game. Now it’s something more.

Cornhole is a yard game involving two wooden boards and eight hand-sized bean bags. Teams of two compete to toss bags on the board or inside a hole for extra points. At some point in the last three years, Punchbowl News Chief of Staff Leah Hirsch Bobbitt decided I was the resident cornhole expert and would play the role of referee.

Which is fine! I play a lot of board games. I like explaining rules. Keep your foot behind the line when you throw. Keep those boards 27 feet apart, per the American Cornhole Organization. We play elimination-style tournaments.

Here’s my confession: I am crazed about the idea of winning this tournament.

I’m pretty good at cornhole! I get more bags on the board than not. Sometimes they go into the hole! I’ve been playing since I was a kid!

And to date, I’m not sure I’ve ever won a single game in a single Punchbowl News tournament. I don’t blame anyone but myself.

Who won this year? Jake Sherman and product manager extraordinaire Kalyn Epps.

Cheers to you, cornhole. I’ll claim your crown someday.

What I’m listening to: I’m driving in the Midwest this weekend. My friend Joe, the driver, is halfway through “The Ottomans: Khans, Caesars, and Caliphs” by Marc David Baer, which means I am also halfway through “The Ottomans: Khans, Caesars, and Caliphs.”

It’s good! I have no idea who any of these guys are, and that would help, but the 47% point of a history book is not a great spot for friendly exposition. But when in Istanbul…!

– Brendan Pedersen

Vote results: Your favorite Punchbowl News scoop

Last week, we asked you to vote on your favorite Punchbowl News scoop from 2025 so far.

We received more than 200 responses, with 56% voting for our breaking news coverage on President Donald Trump’s push for Texas Republicans to carve out five new Republican seats in redistricting.

Our tech reporters’ scoop that revealed Amazon was considering displaying tariff pricing on some of its products, placed second with 19% of the vote.

Other scoops voted on included our reporting on Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) anemic polling numbers against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a Senate Leadership Fund poll.

And now for our next question: What do you wish politicians knew about your district? Tell us here.

Be sure to vote by Wednesday, Aug. 20, and share with your friends and colleagues across the country. We will share the results in next week’s Readback newsletter.

– The Punchbowl News Team