The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

What Harris’ convention speech means for legislating in D.C.

News: Schumer’s fundraising blitz

Jeffries’ bold House predictions

Checking in with K Street leaders and top Hill aides as DNC wraps up

Punchbowl News HQ at the DNC

THE TOP

What Harris’ convention speech means for legislating in D.C.

Happy Friday morning.

CHICAGO — We have a huge edition for you this morning, including in-depth interviews with both Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on Democrats’ prospects following the DNC. This is our last AM edition until Sept. 2 as Punchbowl News is off next week.

But first, let’s talk about Vice President Kamala Harris’ historic address to the Democratic convention and what it means for the White House race.

Harris’ big moment: Harris said Thursday night that she’s “no stranger to unlikely journeys.” The last 30 days have certainly put that to the test.

Harris, the first Black woman and first person of Asian American heritage to become a major party nominee, had a unique opportunity to completely reorient the presidential race with just 74 days left until Election Day. During her speech to a raucous crowd of party faithful, Harris acknowledged her path to the Democratic presidential nomination was “unexpected,” which is putting it mildly following the drama of the last two months.

The 59-year-old California native gave her origin story and laid out a familiar case against former President Donald Trump.

Yet Harris — who has dubbed it the “New Way Forward” — also leaned hard into a governing vision of her own on domestic and foreign policy, one that differs from President Joe Biden, who she took over for as Democratic nominee just weeks ago.

Portraying herself as the underdog against Trump, Harris tried to combat some of her biggest weaknesses, positioning herself as a center-left candidate and promising to be a “realistic, practical” president who represents all Americans. Republicans have pointed out that Harris had one of the most progressive voting records as a senator, painting her as a “radical” who’s too extreme to govern effectively.

Listen up, Congress! On the problems at the U.S.-Mexico border, a key vulnerability, Harris vowed to sign the bipartisan border deal into law. Harris noted that Trump was responsible for killing the measure in the Senate, showing she’s comfortable going on offense over an issue that Republicans have used to bludgeon her.

Unsaid, however, was the fact that many progressives hated this bill, and there would surely be resistance from the left if it’s brought up again.

On the economy, another area where Trump and the GOP have an edge, Harris called restoring the middle class a “defining goal” of her presidency. She once again laid out her vision for a so-called “opportunity economy” and promised to “lower the cost of everyday needs.” Harris unveiled part of this agenda last week, and she didn’t go into much further detail in last night’s address.

Harris also mentioned a trio of other bills that are top Democratic priorities: the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act, the Freedom to Vote Act, and legislation to “restore reproductive freedom.”

Yet passing any of those would require gutting the 60-vote threshold in the Senate — and this assumes Democrats control both chambers next year. All of those scenarios are far from guaranteed. Schumer is already floating the possibility of a filibuster carve-out on abortion rights.

Trump: Harris made a forceful case against Trump, leaning heavily into the contrast of a former prosecutor running against a convicted felon. She portrayed Trump as an existential threat to the country, saying there would be “no guardrails” if the former president returned to the White House.

Harris zeroed in on the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol as well as the Supreme Court’s hugely controversial presidential immunity ruling. Harris also mentioned Trump’s civil court cases, noting he’s been found guilty of fraud and liable for sexual abuse:

Her ability to crisply articulate the case against Trump was a reminder of exactly why Democrats were so eager to see Biden pass the torch to Harris.

Harris did what she needed to during her 40-minute speech, wrapping up what was a successful convention for her and the party — especially considering the challenges they faced coming into Chicago. Now comes a sprint to the finish against Trump.

The Senate candidates: Another interesting dynamic from last night’s program centered on the battle for the Senate. Five Senate candidates and in-cycle incumbents from battleground states had speaking slots on the convention’s final night. Democrats need to hold all of these seats to keep their majority.

What they said — and didn’t say — was revealing.

Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) gave short, issue-specific speeches and did not mention their reelection race or their GOP opponents. The same went for Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who’s running for an open seat in Michigan. They all made direct pitches for Harris.

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), running for that state’s open Senate seat, made a veteran-focused pitch for Harris. During his speech, Gallego brought more than two dozen congressional Democrats who served in the military onto the stage. Gallego, a Marine veteran, didn’t mention his GOP opponent Kari Lake.

Only Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) named his opponent — Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) — in his remarks. Of course, Cruz is a lightning rod for Democrats nationwide, and Allred has seen a flood of out-of-state donations.

— Andrew Desiderio and Melanie Zanona

We’re on the road again! Join Punchbowl News founder and CEO Anna Palmer and Alabama Republican Sen. Katie Britt on Friday, Sept. 6, at 1:15 p.m. CT/2:15 p.m. ET in Birmingham, Ala. They’ll discuss the small business ecosystem in Alabama and the state’s economic future. RSVP now! This event is a part of our series, “Small Business, America’s Future,” presented by Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses.

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE

News: Schumer’s fundraising blitz

CHICAGO — Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has raised $10 million for Democratic candidates and incumbents in 16 states this cycle, per fundraising numbers shared exclusively with Punchbowl News.

The New York Democrat has done 30 fundraisers for Senate Democrats this month alone, as he works to save a Senate majority that’s under grave threat. Schumer has hosted fundraisers for candidates and incumbents in every frontline race — from Ohio to Arizona and Montana to Maryland.

That’s on top of the $167 million the Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC has raised and the $139 million the DSCC has brought in, according to the latest filings. SMP has $124.5 million cash on hand, while the DSCC has $53.1 million. Democrats in down-ballot races are also hoping to benefit from Vice President Kamala Harris’ record-breaking $500 million fundraising haul.

What Schumer told us: In an interview here at the Chicago convention, Schumer said Senate Democrats, through super PACs and official party organizations, are raising more than Senate Republicans, House Republicans and House Democrats.

While that’s impossible to know for sure at this point, cash is one of the few advantages Schumer has as the 2024 campaign enters a crucial stretch. Party leaders will need to make big decisions on how to allocate their resources, with the primary goal being to defend more than half a dozen seats that are at risk of flipping to the GOP.

“[Mitch] McConnell, realizing that we’re good at this, has brought in all these billionaire and multi-millionaire candidates,” Schumer said, a reference to the fact that many GOP challengers are independently wealthy and can bankroll their campaigns.

NRSC Chair Steve Daines often reminds GOP candidates that they’ll never outraise their Democratic opponents. In many of these races, Democrats are outspending Republicans by tens of millions of dollars. But money alone can’t win a race, and Schumer knows that.

“There’s just a movement in America in our direction,” Schumer declared, pointing to the ascension of Harris to the top of the Democratic ticket.

With West Virginia already flipping to the GOP, Republicans just need to win one more seat to retake the Senate majority. Their best pickup opportunities are in Montana and Ohio. But Republicans are also pouring millions into presidential battlegrounds like Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan, where Democrats are defending seats.

Ticket-splitting: Democratic Sens. Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio can’t win their races without a massive chunk of so-called “ticket-splitters” — voters who choose former President Donald Trump in the presidential race and Tester or Brown in the Senate race.

As we’ve written before, this is an increasingly rare phenomenon. We asked Schumer how Tester and Brown could possibly win enough ticket-splitters to overcome the massive edge Republicans have in those states. Schumer said it’s up to the candidates themselves — and Harris — to not veer too far to the left:

— Andrew Desiderio

THE HOUSE

Jeffries’ bold House predictions

CHICAGO – House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has a good story to tell in his first election cycle as Democratic leader.

The DCCC, which Jeffries controls, has been drubbing the NRCC on the fundraising front. Democrats have outraised Republicans for six consecutive quarters. In other words, every quarter since Jeffries has become the top House Democrat, he has raised more money than Speaker Mike Johnson and Republicans — a fact that’s not lost on the GOP.

“They’re in the majority,” Jeffries told us Thursday, almost incredulously.

House Majority PAC, the super PAC supporting House Democrats, has shattered its own fundraising record as well. HMP still has less cash on hand than the Congressional Leadership Fund, its GOP counterpart. But Jeffries thinks CLF will no longer be able to “overwhelm” Democratic candidates with negative ads as Election Day approaches.

And Jeffries said during an interview in a hotel conference room overlooking the Chicago River that he’s confident Republicans won’t be able to defeat any Democratic incumbents this year.

“It’s clear that all of these so-called opportunities that Republicans thought they might have to go on offense have all but disappeared,” Jeffries asserted.

Let’s be clear. We’ve seen congressional leaders make overly rosy predictions in the past. In 2010, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi maintained she wasn’t going to lose the House up until Election Night. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy had his nonexistent “red wave” last cycle, while House Democrats incorrectly expected big gains in 2020. We have another 74 days until Election Day. A lot can change.

This bold talk is unusual for Jeffries, normally one of the most cautious pols we’ve covered. But there’s ample evidence that Jeffries could be on the brink of making history as the first Black speaker of the House. During this week’s Democratic convention, the New York Democrat claimed his party is in the “red zone” and on the “five-yard line” of the majority.

Jeffries vowed that the five Democratic incumbents that Republicans are targeting — Reps. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.), Marcy Kaptur (Ohio), Mary Peltola (Alaska), Jared Golden (Maine) and Matt Cartwright (Pa.) — will have “the resources necessary” to win.

Jeffries reiterated that California and his native New York hold the key to Democrats taking back the majority. As evidence that things look good, Jeffries noted that the seats Democrats need to win in California and New York voted for President Joe Biden in 2020. Jeffries said he believes those voters will come Democrats’ way — especially with Vice President Kamala Harris atop the ticket. Remember, Democrats only need to flip four seats.

Jeffries pointed out that Democrats have already flipped a seat in a special election this cycle when Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) beat Republican Mazi Pilip after former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) resigned from Congress. We reminded him that Republican turnout was likely depressed after Santos was indicted, and Democrats have to run against seasoned candidates like Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) in the New York suburbs in November.

“Candidates like Mike Lawler don’t scare us,” Jeffries said.

Jeffries said it’s a bit too early to know whether Harris is providing a big bump for candidates nationwide, because many Democrats decided to wait for the convention to end to poll their districts. But he said the gathering in Chicago has been “well received … across the country.”

“It turns out that watching Hulk Hogan is not as appealing as seeing actual everyday Americans and public servants articulate a vision for building a brighter day and future for the future for the American people,” Jeffries said.

— Jake Sherman

Checking in with K Street leaders and top Hill aides as DNC wraps up

The Democratic National Convention wrapped up last night with Vice President Kamala Harris officially accepting her nomination and promising to create “an opportunity economy” for all.

As we’ve done all week, for The Canvass, we surveyed senior Hill staffers and K Street leaders who are following the DNC convention for their reactions to the speeches and major issues that played out this week.

We’ll have the full results of the survey in our Midday newsletter, including respondents’ thoughts on the effectiveness of Harris’ speech in uniting the party and winning over moderate and undecided voters.

As a reminder, here are some of the key findings from earlier this week as we await the overnight results from the final day.

– Earlier in the week, Canvass respondents were divided on whether Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was Harris’ best pick for a running mate, with just 44% saying he was. However by the end of the week, more than three-quarters said he was effective in making the case for Harris and on the campaign trail.

– Former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama ranked high among the most effective DNC speakers. The two spoke Tuesday night where they sought to draw a moral contrast between Democrats and former President Donald Trump.

– Nearly all Canvass respondents, including 90% of Republicans, thought the continued messaging at the DNC on the GOP threats to abortion and reproductive rights would help Democrats in November.

– K Street leaders and senior Hill staffers overall thought Democrats were united on key issues like Ukraine and immigration. However, respondents thought the party remained split on Israel, the war in Gaza and the treatment of Palestinians. Those tensions have played out publically for months and at the DNC, where pro-Palestine protesters clashed with police.

– Elvina Nawaguna

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

Punchbowl News HQ at the DNC

We enjoyed hosting our Punchbowl News HQ activation in Chicago Wednesday where we convened DNC attendees for insightful live conversations, coffee, snacks and even ice cream.

Our main stage conversations included a discussion with Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D-Texas) on energy and a fireside chat with Dr. Vijay Swarup, senior director for climate strategy and technology at ExxonMobil.

Swarup called for urgent reforms to the long and complicated U.S. permitting process if the country’s energy industry is to move forward and repurpose its existing assets like natural gas pipelines.

We also held a roundtable of energy executives presented by America’s Energy. CEOs of the American Clean Power Association, Edison Electric Institute, the Nuclear Energy Institute and the American Gas Association shared their views on U.S. energy and the outlook for the industry.

In addition, we had a vibrant discussion with Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) who broke news to us about his political future. Hickenlooper told us he’d be seeking his second and final term in 2026.

We also took our survey, The Canvass, to Chicago. We conducted nightly rapid polling of senior congressional staffers and K Street leaders to bring you immediate responses to DNC speeches and events. On Wednesday, we hosted a live conversation with our polling partners at LSG to share some of the findings from the survey.

The Punchbowl News HQ also included charging stations provided by Duke Energy, a coffee bar by General Motors and Wi-Fi presented by Holland & Knight. We hosted an ice cream social in partnership with Snapchat and drinks provided by Sazerac. Salesforce helped us wrap up the day with a toast and reception.

You can view a gallery of the photos from the Punchbowl News HQ here.

And if you want a trip down recent memory lane, you can check out the photos of our Punchbowl News HQ last month at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

– Team Punchbowl News

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