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BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

Now that the House has voted for a second time to impeach President Donald Trump, we need to start thinking about whether the Senate will convict him and ban him from future office. Right now, insiders bet that the Senate barely acquits him, but it’s a hard call to make and it’s too early to tell definitively.

Some Republicans are already saying the Senate can’t convict a former president. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) took that position. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is telling everyone who will listen that the Senate shouldn’t impeach Trump after he’s gone. Others are concerned that the House impeachment process was brief, and they gripe that Trump was never able to present a defense. They say it’s time to bring the country together. These are process arguments, but they are easy for Republicans to fall back on if they want to vote no. How widespread this sentiment becomes is critical.

It’s also important to consider that additional information about the insurrection may become public between now and the Senate trial. Even though that evidence may not be permissible in the Senate, it will be in the public domain, and public sentiment may shift toward conviction. 

The key person to watch will be Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky — obviously. The next faction deserving additional scrutiny is Senate Republicans who are up for re-election in 2022 and 2024.

If McConnell votes to convict — a distinct possibility at this point — does that swing 16 of his Republican colleagues to convict Trump too? It could. But if McConnell votes to acquit, there’s zero chance enough Republicans will vote to convict. 

If you feel like you can’t get a good grip on what McConnell is thinking, you’re not alone. “I’ve had five or six [senators] call me today to ask, ‘What is Mitch up to?’” a senior GOP senator told us Wednesday afternoon. 

McConnell isn’t lobbying his colleagues either way. On Tuesday, the New York Times broke a story saying that McConnell “is pleased that Democrats are moving to impeach” Trump. That rocked Capitol Hill because it gave the impression that  McConnell was greenlighting Senate Republicans to convict Trump. The relationship between the two men has broken down, and they haven’t spoken in weeks. But the official line is that the Kentucky Republican hasn’t made up his mind.

There is a bloc of Senate Republicans who seem very likely to vote to convict: Mitt Romney (Utah), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Susan Collins (Maine). 

If McConnell votes to convict, you may see some of his closest allies — people like Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) — back him up. Other McConnell loyalists would follow. That won’t add up to the magic number 17, though.

That leaves it for 2022 and 2024 Republicans to decide Trump’s fate. 

The 2022 crew that could vote to convict: Sens. Richard Shelby of Alabama (possible retirement), Marco Rubio of Florida, Todd Young of Indiana, Chuck Grassley of Iowa (possible retirement), Rob Portman of Ohio, Roy Blunt of Missouri, James Lankford of Oklahoma, and Mike Lee of Utah are worth watching. From the 2024 class, Roger Wicker of Mississippi is also a possibility.  All of these men could face primary challenges for turning on Trump.

Consider what Portman said about the impeachment:

If the Senate proceeds with an impeachment trial, I will do my duty as a juror and listen to the cases presented by both sides.

President-Elect Biden has rightly said he wants to set a new tone of greater unity as his administration begins. All of us should be concerned about the polarization in our country and work toward bringing people together. If the Senate conducts an impeachment trial, among my considerations will be what is best to help heal our country rather than deepen our divisions.

Of course, the standard for rendering judgment isn’t whether the verdict will heal divisions. It’s whether the president did what he is charged with. Whether it will bring the country together or not is not material. The this-will-divide-people defense is not part of the decision-making tree — nor should it be.

Then there’s the question of whether all Democrats stick together to impeach Trump. Here’s looking at you, Joe Manchin. 

THE CRACKDOWN

Pelosi ups the ante on metal detectors

Getty Images

Following the deadly Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and reports that at least one Republican lawmaker may have been carrying a gun on the floor, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) had magnetometers installed by the entrances to the House chamber. Members were required to go through the metal detectors and have their bags searched by Capitol Police.

Many Republicans didn’t like this, believing it to be an infringement of their rights as a federally elected official. So they ignored the screening process, walking through the metal detectors without stopping.

So Pelosi is jacking up the pressure. She announced Wednesday night that members who don’t comply with the screening policy would be fined $5,000 for a first offense and $10,000 for a second. Congressional officials will deduct the fines straight from the lawmaker’s paycheck. Democrats will offer a rules change on the House floor soon to formalize the policy.

“The House will soon move forward with a rule change imposing fines on those who refuse to abide by these protections,” Pelosi said in a statement. “The fine for the first offense will be $5,000 and $10,000 for the second offense.  The fines will be deducted directly from Members’ salaries by the Chief Administrative Officer.”

While Republicans are upset by the move, Democrats say this is similar to when the GOP leadership tweaked House rules in 2017 to bar posting videos or pictures from the House floor. GOP leaders made that change when Democrats staged a sit-in to push for a change in gun control laws in the summer of 2016. Republicans altered their original proposal to allow lawmakers to appeal those fines.

Rep. Rodney Davis (Ill.), the top Republican on the House Administration Committee, isn’t a fan of the screening effort: “The known threats are outside the Capitol, and this should be seen as a purely political move by the speaker. After speaking numerous times with Capitol Police leadership and dozens of rank and file officers since Jan. 6, we need to be focused on ensuring a safe Inauguration Day and a peaceful transfer of power.”

CONFIRMATION BATTLES

Biden’s Cabinet lines up for hearings

Sure, impeachment could slow this down. But Joe Biden’s Cabinet is readying for confirmation hearings on the Senate Side.

The Senate Finance Committee is set to begin considering Janet Yellen’s confirmation for Treasury Secretary Jan. 19 at 10 a.m. Senate Armed Services will consider Lloyd Austin’s nomination for Defense Secretary Jan. 19 at 3 p.m.

The Senate is going to move quickly on Biden’s top noms. Remember: Biden has an incredibly ambitious legislative agenda. He wants a Covid-19 rescue package immediately, and is already saying publicly the pricetag for that is going to be huge — he is expected to talk about it tonight in a speech. In other words, we’re about to enter a frenzied legislative rush. 

THE CLIP FILE

NYT: “The Capitol Police Had One Mission. Now the Force Is in Crisis,” by Shaila Dewan, Ali Watkins and John Eligon: “Three officers have been suspended and 17 more are under investigation, according to a senior Congressional aide. … 

“On Wednesday, Representative Tim Ryan of Ohio complained that the agency was a ‘black box.’ ‘We’re having a hell of a time getting information from Capitol Police leadership,’ said Mr. Ryan, who chairs the House subcommittee that oversees the department’s budget. ‘We fund the Capitol Police. Congress funds the Capitol Police through the Appropriations Committee. We deserve to know and understand what the hell is going on.’” … 

… “A Preordained Coda to a Presidency,” by Peter Baker: “Not since the dark days of the Civil War and its aftermath has Washington seen a day quite like Wednesday.

“In a Capitol bristling with heavily armed soldiers and newly installed metal detectors, with the physical wreckage of last week’s siege cleaned up but the emotional and political wreckage still on display, the president of the United States was impeached for trying to topple American democracy.

“Somehow, it felt like the preordained coda of a presidency that repeatedly pressed all limits and frayed the bonds of the body politic. With less than a week to go, President Trump’s term is climaxing in violence and recrimination at a time when the country has fractured deeply and lost a sense of itself. Notions of truth and reality have been atomized. Faith in the system has eroded. Anger is the one common ground." …

… Maggie Haberman and Mike Schmidt: "Advisers said that Mr. Trump had to be dissuaded from going to the House floor to try to defend himself during Wednesday’s impeachment proceedings, something he wanted to do during his first impeachment in December 2019, advisers said."

WaPo: “Trump is isolated and angry at aides for failing to defend him as he is impeached again,” by Phil Rucker, Josh Dawsey and Ashley Parker: “Though Trump has been exceptionally furious with Vice President Pence, his relationship with lawyer Rudolph W. Giuliani, one of his most steadfast defenders, is also fracturing, according to people with knowledge of the dynamics between the men.

“Trump has instructed aides not to pay Giuliani’s legal fees, two officials said, and has demanded that he personally approve any reimbursements for the expenses Giuliani incurred while traveling on the president’s behalf to challenge election results in key states. They said Trump has privately expressed concern with some of Giuliani’s moves and did not appreciate a demand from Giuliani for $20,000 a day in fees for his work attempting to overturn the election.”

POLITICO: “Graham fights Trump’s ouster as McConnell keeps his options open,” by Marianne LeVine, Andrew Desiderio and Sam Stein: “[Sen. Lindsey] Graham, who just last week said he had had ‘enough’ of Trump’s bid to overturn the election results after he incited a deadly riot at the Capitol, has been calling around to Republican senators urging them to oppose convicting the president in the Senate’s upcoming impeachment trial, according to three people familiar with the effort.”

WSJ: “Democrats Plan Policy Path on Next Round of Stimulus Checks, Other Aid,” by Richard Rubin and Kristina Peterson …

… WSJ Editorial Board: “Democrats are now triumphant in Washington. If they really want to calm political tempers, they’ll drop an impeachment trial and let Mr. Trump slink away to Florida. They can take the high road and get on with their agenda. Mr. Biden could even take credit for suggesting it and his approval rating would soar. The shame is that Democrats seem so obsessed with Mr. Trump that they are the ones who can’t let him go even after they’ve won.”

New Yorker:“Trump Impeachment II Was Just as Awful as the Original,” by Susan Glasser

AP: “Vaccines and masks: Biden plan aims to break pandemic cycle,” by Riacrdo Alonso-Zaldivar and Bill Barrow

LAT: “Sheltering in a Capitol office, California lawmaker sent text and got impeachment ball rolling,” by Jen Haberkorn and Sarah Wire: “Still taking refuge in a Capitol Hill office after violent Trump supporters besieged the House and Senate floors, Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Torrance) fired off a text message to every Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee.

“The committee ‘should start drafting articles of impeachment now, regardless of what leadership says,’ he wrote in the 3:09 p.m. message. ‘We have seen the consequences of being weak against Trump and not holding him accountable these last couple months. If we don’t do anything besides send strongly worded press releases, then we are complicit in battering lady justice and our Constitution”

MOMENTS

Joe Biden will give a speech on the economy at 7:15 p.m. The transition says: “He will outline his vaccination and economic rescue legislative package to fund vaccinations and provide immediate, direct relief to working families and communities bearing the brunt of this crisis and call on both parties in Congress to move his proposals quickly.”

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