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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Tuesday morning. 

Here are some famous last words: The House leadership doesn’t anticipate having any trouble passing a debt-limit increase. Members return this afternoon for a quick session to take up the debt-limit boost and do some other business, and then the chamber isn’t back for another vote until Oct. 19.

Here’s the kicker: The House won’t even vote directly on lifting the debt limit. The debt limit will be “deemed” lifted as part of a rule that governs debate for the PUMP for Nursing Mothers Act, the Protect Older Job Applicants Act and the Family Violence Prevention and Services Improvement Act. 

In other words, one vote will sketch out the debate on three minor bills — and it will also lift the debt limit by $480 billion. It’s an attempt at being a bit cute by House Democrats, but it’s still a debt-limit vote.

This mini episode of the People’s House comes amid a few interesting macro developments for Congress: 

→ Experts are suggesting that the nation will reach the new, revised debt limit sometime in mid December or early January. This is a bit later than the Dec. 3 date that Congress originally projected. We suggest you read Wrightson ICAP’s analysis of Treasury Department outflows, it’s interesting stuff.

If this analysis is correct, it could sort of decouple the debt-limit fight from the government-funding debate. Remember, federal agencies are funded through Dec. 3. We wouldn’t be surprised if the two sides try to craft a deal that includes both government funding and debt ceiling together regardless of the borrowing cap “X date.” As has been true for a while now, a lot depends on the status of the Democrats’ multi-trillion dollar reconciliation package. If Democrats are still trying to put it together by Thanksgiving — a distinct possibility — then you could see Congress do a short-term continuing resolution to fund the government while Congress wrestles with President Joe Biden’s agenda. 

Let’s also acknowledge that Congress loves to wait until the last minute to do anything. So maybe the debt limit turns into a Christmas/year-end project — because why not?

→ Remember: House Democrats say they want to pass the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill by the end of the month. In order to do that, they need a deal with the Senate Democrats on a “topline” for reconciliation. We’re almost halfway into this month and they don’t have that agreement. We’re skeptical that Democratic congressional leaders and the White House get all of this done by the end of the month, although it’s not impossible.

→ Speaker Nancy Pelosi has begun to address how she’ll handle some of the vexing decisions she will have to make in the coming days about the shape of the reconciliation bill. In a letter to Democrats Monday night, Pelosi said this: 

“Overwhelmingly, the guidance I am receiving from Members is to do fewer things well so that we can still have a transformative impact on families in the workplace and responsibly address the climate crisis: a Build Back Better agenda for jobs and the planet For The Children!”

Democrats have several paths given the reality of having to shrink their reconciliation package from $3.5 trillion to the roughly $2 trillion level: more programs for less money, meaning shorter duration; fewer programs for more money; or just a mix and mash of both. Pelosi here is coming down in favor of the “do fewer things well” argument, which means there will be programs on the cutting room floor.

House Budget Committee Chair John Yarmuth of Kentucky has already suggested not including expanding Medicare programs for dental, hearing and vision, arguing they’re very costly. Yarmuth and other Democrats also point out that the dental program wouldn’t phase in until 2028, and it has inspired big opposition from the American Dental Association and other dentist groups. Yarmuth has argued to put the dental program in a reconciliation package next year. That is possible, of course, but realistically this is the time for big package. Everything will be more difficult next year. Also, dropping Medicare expansion will aggravate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), so we would expect some big pushback here.

THE ROAD TO RECOVERY SERIES

We’re one week away from our final event in The Road to Recovery series with Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa). Join us in-person and virtually next Tuesday, Oct. 19 at 8:30 a.m. EDT for a conversation about the uneven recovery of women-owned small businesses. RSVP here!

THE PENTAGON

When will the Senate take up the NDAA?

Congress has passed the National Defense Authorization bill (NDAA) every year since 1961. It’s one of the few things the institution does on a bipartisan basis, and it’s a big deal. It sets Pentagon priorities and policy. So we’re wondering when it will happen this year. The answer — unclear.

And like many things in Washington these days, the Senate is the issue.

The House passed its version of the NDAA — which includes an additional $24 billion in Pentagon money — last month.

Interestingly enough, the Senate Armed Services Committee did its job and approved the NDAA on July 21 by a big bipartisan margin. The committee also approved $25 billion more in defense spending beyond what was requested by President Joe Biden.

So the issue is getting the NDAA on the floor. And that’s where there doesn’t seem to be any answers at the moment.

There’s also likely to be some debate over amendments that neither Democrats nor the White House want — Afghanistan, immigration, vaccine mandates for the military, for instance. Boosting the Pentagon budget is something progressives are opposed to as well, although there is enough support among moderate Democrats and the Republicans to overcome that. Now remember, this is just an authorization, meaning it maps out the money that the Pentagon will get. Congress is nowhere near agreeing to the annual defense spending bill.

With the Senate out this week, Democratic leaders were unable to tell us when the NDAA will come up. Some Republicans have privately suggested to us they’d like to see the Senate turn to the NDAA later this month, but we’ll see.

"The FY22 NDAA is a strong bill that ensures our military has the tools and support it needs,” said Cole Stevens, a SASC spokesperson. “We look forward to improving it further through the Senate floor process at the appropriate time."

Let’s note this — It’s late in the year for doing the NDAA, which isn’t a good sign. If you look at this Congressional Research Service report on defense authorization and appropriations bills  (we already did!), we’re pretty deep in Senate floor action on the NDAA by traditional standards. This is the fifth-latest timeline on record already. Once the Senate passes its bill, they have to meld it with the House-passed legislation, which can get pretty divisive. Then both chambers have to pass the same version.

One other issue also popped up in reporting on the NDAA. It’s been suggested to us that the NDAA — as a must-pass vehicle — could become a candidate for other bills to ride on. One possible candidate floated to us was the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act, the massive $200 billion to improve U.S. competitiveness with China. This legislation has been bogged down in a dispute between the House and Senate, but there may be some effort to attach it to the NDAA.

So we’ll be keeping a close eye on all this going forward.

TREND

Nancy Pelosi and the world

Speakers of the House have become national and global figures. They’re treated like quasi heads of state abroad, and get their rings kissed by foreign leaders at home in the Capitol.

In the last few months, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been doing quite a bit of globetrotting and leader welcoming.

→ Pelosi attended the G7 speaker meeting in England in September. She also visited 10 Downing Street for a meeting with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. 

→ She received Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison in the Capitol during the U.N. General Assembly.

→ Last week, Pelosi was in Italy, where she met with Pope Francis and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi. She then flew to Portugal for the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, and she also met with the country’s president, prime minister and president of the assembly.

→ Today, Pelosi will host Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid in the Capitol. 

Pelosi has long been a figure on the international stage, but the concentration of globe trotting and international relations here was notable to us.

FRONTS

THE MONEY GAME

→ Former Sen. Bob Corker has $6.2 million on hand in his Senate re-election account. That is a lot of money for someone out of federal office. 

→ Robin Tallon, the South Carolina Democrat who left Congress in 1992, still has $1.1 million in the bank. 

→ Cruz for President still has $32,187 in the bank. ​

MOMENTS

8:45 a.m.: President Joe Biden will meet with “G20 leaders to discuss close coordination on Afghanistan among the world’s largest economies, select guests, and international financial institutions.”

10:15 a.m.: Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will receive their intelligence briefing.

11:30 a.m.: Speaker Nancy Pelosi will hold her weekly news conference.

12:45 p.m.: Pelosi will meet with Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid in the Capitol

2 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief. 

4:30 p.m.: House Financial Services Committee Chair Maxine Waters will speak about housing funds in the Build Back Better agenda. 

5 p.m.: The House is going to vote sometime in the early evening — as early as 5 p.m. — on lifting the debt limit.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “‘We Suffer While You Debate’: Many Fear Being Left Behind as Democrats Trim Spending Bill,” by Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Jim Tankersley

→ “Biden’s Proposal to Empower I.R.S. Rattles Banks and Their Customers,” by Kate Kelly and Alan Rappeport

 → “A Babysitter and a Band-Aid Wrapper: Inside the Submarine Spy Case,” by Julian E. Barnes, Brenda Wintrode and JoAnna Daemmrich

→ “Clear Differences Remain Between France and U.S., French Minister Says,” by Liz Alderman and Roger Cohen in Paris

WaPo

→ “At least 85 percent of the world’s population has been affected by human-induced climate change, new study shows,” by Annabelle Timsit and Sarah Kaplan

→ “Already, 18 weather disasters costing at least $1 billion each have hit the U.S. this year,” by Kerrin Jeromin

WSJ

→ “Oil Price Jumps Above $80 and Natural Gas Races Higher, Turbocharged by Supply Shortages,” by Amirth Ramkumar

→ WSJ Editorial Board: “Another Partisan Redistricting Meltdown”

CNN

→ “Texas governor bans Covid-19 vaccine mandates by any employer in state,” by Paul LeBlanc

AP

→ “Risky move: Biden undercuts WH executive privilege shield,” by Colleen Long and Zeke Miller

→ “Justice Department again presses to halt Texas abortion law,” by Paul J. Weber in Austin, Texas

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images