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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Wednesday morning. Congrats to the Atlanta Braves. Anything is better than the Houston Astros winning the World Series.

Let’s not overstate it: The world isn’t ending for Democrats. 

But let’s not understate it either: President Joe Biden landed late last night in a Washington very different from the one he left just last Thursday.

Republican Glenn Youngkin, in his first run for office, defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe for governor in Virginia, a state that’s been trending blue for a dozen years. 

And in a too-close-to-call race, the battle between incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in New Jersey and Republican Jack Ciattarelli is still undecided. Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman, led by just over 1,000 votes out of more than 2.36 million cast, but there’s still a lot of counting left. Murphy may still pull out a win.

Deja vu? Yup. This is all reminiscent of 2009, when Republicans swept both states on their way to massive victories in the 2010 midterms. They captured the House that cycle — ending Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s first run atop the chamber — and picked up seven Senate seats. The 2022 Senate map isn’t that good for Republicans, but they’re clearly the heavy favorites to win the House again next year. If the GOP does so, Pelosi would be the first speaker since Republican Joseph Martin to lose the majority twice (1948 and 1954). That’s not a list she wants to be on.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy texted this memo to lawmakers last night, It, in part, said this:

By electing Republican Glenn Youngkin as their new governor, Virginia voters sent an undeniable message that extends beyond the Commonwealth to every corner of the country. In times of anxiety, Americans are focused on the success and stability of their families and communities. Americans want a change in leadership, and Virginia is just the first step. 

Glenn Youngkin understood this, and won by listening to families and communities across Virginia that were being ignored by the Democrat-controlled state capitol. Meanwhile, Terry McAuliffe lost by listening to partisan political consultants and far-left activists. 

It’s true that off-year elections are unique, and that Covid-19 pandemic has left American society in a volatile, unpredictable state. Yet Biden’s sagging approval ratings, the unhappy electorate and Republicans’ successful exploitation of cultural fights over “critical race theory,” immigration and vaccine mandates are a harbinger of much more trouble ahead for the White House and the party. As we pointed out yesterday, simply screaming “Donald Trump!” won’t help Democrats keep the suburban voters they won last year.

So today and the days that follow will be particularly rough for House Democrats.

It doesn’t help that the party is in the midst of trying to pass the most progressive piece of legislation in decades. And if you think McAuliffe’s loss will have no impact on that, you’re very wrong. 

Numerous Democrats privately have told us they’re uneasy with the contours of the massive Build Better Act despite weeks of intra-party negotiations. They believe the party leadership is rushing through the final stages of these talks. Last night’s loss — or losses — won’t end Democrats’ quest to pass the massive reconciliation package, but it will certainly impact it. Pelosi and her leadership team were hoping for floor passage this week. However, Tuesday losses will give new heft to those voices that have been suggesting the speaker slow the agenda down and bring it back to the center.

Remember: After Republican Scott Brown won the late Ted Kennedy’s Massachusetts Senate seat in January 2010, Pelosi and party leaders still pushed Obamacare through the chamber two months later. But Pelosi had a 257-178 vote margin at that point. She only has a three-vote margin now.

Let’s say this, though: You’ll hear moderates say today that the House needs to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill immediately. The House and Senate Democratic caucuses will turn into circular firing squads. That was already happening last night. Moderates will blame progressives, and vice versa. 

But know this — Sen. Joe Manchin’s wing of the Democratic Party will seem much more crowded today. 

The Coverage:

→ Richmond Times Dispatch: “Republicans claim House majority after flipping 6th seat,” by Michael Martz 

→ Republicans also won the attorney general and lieutenant governor offices in Virginia

→ AP: “In Virginia, GOP finds new playbook — not easily replicated,” by Steve Peoples

→ NYT: “Glenn Youngkin, a Republican financier, defeats Terry McAuliffe in the Virginia governor’s race,” by Jonathan Martin in McLean, Va., and Alex Burns

→ NYT:  “Glenn Youngkin’s Journey From the Heights of Finance to the Top Tier of G.O.P. Politics,” by Trip Gabriel

→ NJ.com: “N.J. governor race still too close to call. Murphy, Ciattarelli waiting for all votes to be counted,” by Brent Johnson, Matt Arco and Susan K. Livio

→ WaPo: “Reeling Democrats see threat to House and Senate control as Republicans crack their 2020 coalition,” by Sean Sullivan

→ WaPo: “Youngkin’s balancing act with Trump pays off in Va. governor’s race,” by Michael Scherer and Josh Dawsey

THE WORKFORCE FEATURING SEC. GINA RAIMONDO

Punchbowl News’ newest editorial product, The Workforce, profiles four leaders who are redefining the future of the workforce. Our second installment drops today, featuring Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.

Sec. Raimondo’s understanding of workforce challenges goes back to her childhood when her father taught night school for adults trying to gain more skills. As governor of Rhode Island, she is credited with helping revitalize the state’s training programs by working closely with businesses to ensure the skills being taught met the workforce needs.

In her current role, she is trying to break down barriers between agencies to help ensure America remains competitive on the global scale.

Read Sec. Raimondo’s profile here and catch up on our first profile on Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.) if you missed it. 

BREAKDOWN

How to think about reconciliation timing

There’s so much chatter both on Capitol Hill and downtown about possible timing for the reconciliation package. So much of it is overly hopeful at best and completely misguided at worst. Here are some factors to think about.

→ At this point, assuming the House will vote on the Build Back Better Act this week is problematic. Why? Leave aside last night’s results. The full text hasn’t been released yet and it’s Wednesday. Now, complete bill text may, in fact, come out today. But as we reported yesterday, key members of the Blue Dog Coalition want 72 hours to review the legislation. And they want a score by CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation before voting on the measure. They wrote a letter spelling out their position yesterday. We don’t think that these moderates will drop their demands — especially after the bruising loss in Virginia Tuesday. But let’s assume they modify their scoring request, while still saying they need three days to review the legislation. That will push a vote until Friday at the earliest. But again, we won’t see any budgetary score by that time. Some will say that rushing a vote this week is not politically tenable for the Democratic Caucus. 

→ After last night’s twin debacle in Virginia and New Jersey, we have to imagine the center of the House Democratic Caucus is going to want to take its time. However, this may also be a reason why Speaker Nancy Pelosi keeps her foot firmly on the gas. Remember: Pelosi’s strength — some may say it’s a flaw — is her ability to plow through difficult situations without second guessing herself. A delay now could be fatal for BBB, and possibly the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill as well. Remember, the fate of these two measures is inexorably intertwined.

→ If the House does somehow pass the BBB Act without a budget score, the leadership will have to hold off on sending it to the Senate until they have a CBO analysis. Such scoring is a necessary requirement under the reconciliation process for the Senate. That’s another reason why some Blue Dogs want to wait, though. If Pelosi is going to hold the bill anyway following a House vote in order for CBO to release its score, why not delay that House vote until the CBO score is available? That’s a question a lot of Democrats have. And let’s remember, they made the same demand of Republicans during the fight over the 2017 GOP tax bill. Of course, a CBO score is a dual-edged sword. The true price tag is almost certain to give some Democrats pause.

→ It seems very likely that the Senate will amend this reconciliation package after it passes the House. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) hates the SALT deal that Democratic leaders cut, although he’s going to have to take that up with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.  Immigration remains a huge problem. We told you yesterday that House Democrats may add some immigration provisions to the package in order to win support from Reps. Chuy Garcia (D-Ill.), Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y) and Lou Correa (D-Calif.) on the floor, knowing very well the Senate parliamentarian will knock them out. Other provisions will drop out during the “Byrd bath” process. There will be a vote-a-rama, with hundreds — maybe thousands — of GOP amendments. This bill is destined to come back to the House after the Senate is done with it.

→ The more we think about it, it seems likely this process will easily stretch until Thanksgiving — and maybe even deep into December. 

INSIDE THE ROOM

McConnell keeps cards close to his vest on debt limit

Don’t forget: The debt limit and government funding fights are just around the corner, and we have some new reporting for you on that.

Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) asked Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell at their private party lunch Tuesday what his plan was for the upcoming debt-limit fight. McConnell said he didn’t want to discuss it. 

Kennedy pressed McConnell, suggesting Republicans should begin talking about it now so they don’t end up in a jam like they did last time. Remember: Last month, McConnell decided to go along with a Democratic plan to extend the debt limit until early December. McConnell had said for two months before that he would force Democrats to include a debt-limit boost in reconciliation, which they ended up not doing. McConnell was criticized for his decision.

During Tuesday’s party lunch, McConnell told Kennedy he didn’t want to “put my cards on the table” right now, several sources told us. The Senate GOP leader said there would be plenty of time for discussing his strategy later.

Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) then stood up and said he was working on a plan to expedite consideration of the debt limit in reconciliation, if Democrats decide to take that path.

What you should take from this: McConnell is still being quite coy about how he’s going to handle this issue. And that doesn’t sit well with some Republicans, who were disappointed with his performance last time.

BEHIND THE SCENES

Pelosi raised $5.2 million last night

Speaker Nancy Pelosi raised $5.2 million at a dinner for the DCCC Tuesday night. An official told us that this was the biggest fundraiser the DCCC has ever done. 

The dinner, held at Osteria Morini in Navy Yard, drew 80 lawmakers including DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (N.Y.), Whip Jim Clyburn, Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.), Vice Chair Pete Aguilar (Calif.), Reps. Sara Jacobs (Calif.) and Veronica Escobar (Texas), among others.

Pelosi matched $2.6 million in donations with her own money. “I want Frontliners to come out with an eloquent, bank statement that is just dazzling and that’s blinding to the opposition,” Pelosi said to the room.

They’re gonna need all this cash and a lot more for 2022.

WHITE HOUSE X THE HIGH COURT

A new Supreme Court commission timeline

President Joe Biden’s commission to examine potential Supreme Court reforms has a new timeline for its work. According to a source familiar with its schedule, the commission is adding an additional deliberative session to work through the issue. 

Here’s the revised timetable:

→ Nov. 18: The commission will release revised discussion materials. 

→ Nov. 19: The commission will meet on that material.

→ Dec. 6: The commission will release its draft report.

→ Dec. 7: The commission’s final meeting will take place. 

→ Dec. 15: The commission will submit its final report.

FRONTS

MOMENTS

10 a.m.: Speaker Nancy Pelosi will have a photo spray with Roberto Fico, the president of the Chamber of Deputies of Italy.  

1 p.m.: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will get their daily briefing

1:45 p.m.: The Covid-19 team will brief.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Biden Tries to Reassert American Leadership, and His Own,” by Katie Rogers in Glasgow

→ “Supreme Court to Hear Major Second Amendment Case,” by Adam Liptak

→ “C.D.C. Recommends Covid Vaccine for Younger Children,” by Apoorva Mandavilli

→ “Minneapolis voters reject an amendment to replace the Police Department,” by Mitch Smith and Tim Arango

WaPo

→ “Ohio’s Shontel Brown wins Ohio House seat, as primary for House seat in Florida heads to a recount,” by David Weigel

→ “How Schumer’s left turn shaped the Democratic agenda and set up a chaotic final scramble,” by Mike DeBonis

CNN

→ “Biden finds wins abroad easier to come by than at home,” by Kevin Liptak

WSJ

→ “Financial System Makes Big Promises on Climate Change at COP26 Summit,” by David Benoit

→ “Justice Department Sues to Block Penguin Random House’s Acquisition of Simon & Schuster,” by Brent Kendall and Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg

AP

→ “Biden uses trip abroad to confront China on climate, more,” by Josh Boak, Zeke Miller and Ellen Knickmeyer

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images