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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

Good morning, everyone. Here’s some news:

The White House plans to roll out its “Build Back Better” plan during a speech by President Joe Biden next Wednesday in Pittsburgh.

The contents of the proposal are going to be largely similar to what Jim Tankersley laid out in the New York Times a few days ago. The Biden proposal is a massive, $3 trillion-plus package that will have two main themes: an infrastructure portion that will total more than $2 trillion, and a social welfare element estimated at roughly $1 trillion or more. 

Biden is then expected to send his “skinny” budget for FY 2022 to Capitol Hill next Thursday, the following day.

Between his Build Back Better proposal and the recently passed, $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, Biden is going big. Biden waited a long time to be president, and he’s clearly willing to gamble now that he’s sitting in the Oval Office. What’s in this initiative will thrill progressives and infuriate Republicans, but it’s Biden setting the agenda and forcing the GOP to react — something the White House hasn’t done well the last two weeks.

We laid out the sequencing and political theory behind the Biden administration plan a few days ago in Punchbowl News AM. The White House wants the House to pass a steady drumbeat of infrastructure bills over the spring and summer. Senate Republicans will block much of everything. Then the White House anticipates a large reconciliation package to be the final vehicle in which all this gets signed into law.

Ron Klain, the White House chief of staff, and Steve Ricchetti, Biden’s senior counselor, virtually briefed Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on the plan separately this week. It’s full steam ahead.

Here’s what we know. The White House sees its legislative proposal under two general banners: rebuilding America and investing in the middle class/”human infrastructure.”

The traditional infrastructure piece is expected to be worth $2 trillion-plus. It will look a bit like this:

→ H.R. 2: A beefed up version of the House’s infrastructure bill, which hasn’t yet been released. But it’ll be similar to last year’s bill, which you can read for reference.

→ It will focus on investments in roads, bridges, infrastructure, public housing, schools, water, manufacturing (seen as possibly bipartisan).

→ The pay-for here is hiking the corporate tax rate. The Biden administration is convinced that the argument that corporations do not pay enough in taxes is one that plays well politically to voters of all stripes. However, there’s no sign at all that Republicans will go for that — they say it’s a non starter. House Republicans are deep already into their 2009-10 playbook of opposing everything Biden wants.

The “human infrastructure” piece is roughly $1 trillion. It includes:

→ Free community college, universal preschool, child care, paid leave, long-term care and prescription drug overhaul. 

→ The pay-for here is hiking the individual rate and closing the carried interest loophole. 

It’s not at all hard to envision how this will proceed. Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill are going to try to move the component pieces of this, but everything will likely be jammed into an early fall reconciliation bill. And then the issue for Biden, Pelosi and Schumer is can they keep their own Democrats in line.

FOR SCHUMER: BUSTING THE ‘BUSTER

Five reasons to kill the filibuster, five reasons to keep it

The votes aren’t there to end the filibuster. They may never be there. Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.) say they oppose any effort to weaken the 60-vote supermajority needed for passing bills.

But there’s no question that anti-filibuster advocates on the left have momentum right now. President Joe Biden came out for returning to the “talking filibuster” of the past, where a bill’s opponents had to physically hold the Senate floor to block legislation. And Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Angus King (I-Maine) have softened somewhat in their opposition to dumping the filibuster.

There also may be intermediate steps to “reform” the filibuster short of eliminating it. For instance, Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) has long advocated steps to rein in the use of filibusters by making them more difficult to do. Yet once the door is open to “reform,” how long before the voices on either side clamor to end the tradition entirely?

Again, the votes aren’t there yet to do this. 

But we’ve spent a lot of time over the last few weeks talking and thinking about the filibuster — both with each other, with senators, and with sources who would never talk about it publicly. 

And we thought it would be useful to explore some arguments why Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) should use the “nuclear option” to get rid of the filibuster, and why he shouldn’t.

The whole issue pivots on Schumer, of course, so here’s how we see the debate playing out, from a political, tactical and strategic standpoint. 

WHY SCHUMER SHOULD DO IT

1) Passing Democratic legislative priorities: This is pretty straightforward. If Biden and Schumer want to move anything beyond the most basic legislation, or to do so without using reconciliation, they need to get rid of the filibuster. If they want to have any impact on gun control, election reform, climate change or a host of progressive priorities, it’s the only way. That doesn’t mean that if they blow up the filibuster all these priorities will pass. But if they don’t end the filibuster, they definitely won’t. 

2) Different pages: There’s very little common ground between the two parties on any issue right now. In the aftermath of the Donald Trump era, hyper-partisanship is the order of the day. The political center is a lonely place. So why bother looking for Republicans to work with at all? Just accept that this is the reality of U.S. political culture and act accordingly. Pass your agenda now. If you have to get rid of the filibuster to do that, go ahead.

3) Democrats are very likely to lose the House in 2022. According to historical norms, the president’s party loses an average of 26 seats in the first midterm election. Plus, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) may be retiring. The only reason to get rid of the filibuster, of course, is if you control the House, Senate and White House at the same time. You’re going to lose the House, Pelosi is retiring — so why not get rid of the filibuster now and jam your legislation through, while you still can?

4) Democrats don’t believe there’s any long-term risk for them. In reality, what’s the downside for Democrats here? The American public just wants results, they don’t care about arcane arguments over the sanctity of the filibuster and minority rights. Do it. Now.

5) Schumer’s own politics, both inside the caucus and back home. Progressives inside the Senate Democratic Caucus want the filibuster gone and would be overjoyed if Schumer pulled the trigger. And it would take away a talking point from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or any other primary challenger in 2022.

WHY SCHUMER SHOULD LAY OFF

1) This would permanently alter the nature of the Senate. The Senate would become more and more like the House, where the majority rules everything. Filibuster critics would argue that’s a good thing, but something very special about the Senate would be lost.

2) McConnell ain’t playing. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has threatened “to turn the Senate into a sort of nuclear winter” if Democrats go nuclear. In a body that runs by unanimous consent requests and agreements, Republicans would object to even trivial actions, like setting the time for committee hearings or adjourning for the day. McConnell will be as good as his word here.

3) So what happens when they’re in the minority? Senate Democrats will be back in the minority at some point. Republicans will just ram bills down their throats for two straight years, and there’ll be nothing they can do it about. Didn’t Democrats learn the lesson of 2013, when they limited filibusters on nominations only to see McConnell go even further in 2017? Didn’t that lead to Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett on the Supreme Court?

4) Dramatic swings in policy depending on who’s in control. This doesn’t get talked about all that much. Changing presidents, of course, results in big swings in public policies. But changing Senate majorities, which happens more than people realize, can also lead to dramatic changes in policy. 

5) Tremendous pressure to pass a slew of House bills. Moderate Democrats would face intense pressure to sign off on a slew of House-passed legislation. And the House majority is much more progressive than even the Senate Democratic Caucus. The difference isn’t as dramatic as in the past, but it still exists.

THE MONEY GAME

McCarthy’s cash infusions

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is in Florida and other states raising money this week. He’s always raising money — he’s the House Republican’s biggest fundraiser at the moment, and his team would argue he’s one of the biggest House GOP fundraisers in history. There could be some truth to that. 

We have some new numbers. Here is what McCarthy has transferred so far to other GOP entities this year:

→ $5.5 million to the NRCC and state parties.

→ $3 million to individual members of Congress.

$8.3 million in transfers this quarter. That’s a lot of money. We will dig in more to McCarthy and other lawmakers’ fundraising in days and weeks ahead. The fundraising quarter ends next week, so expect a lot of cash talk between now and mid April.

MOMENTS

9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will receive his daily intelligence briefing.

11 a.m.: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will hold a news conference in the Capitol. 

1:15 p.m.: Biden will hold his first news conference.

2 p.m.: Speaker Nancy Pelosi will hold her weekly news conference by phone. 

3:45 p.m.: Biden will meet virtually with the European Council.

5:50 p.m.: VP Kamala Harris and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff will participate in a virtual Passover celebration. (Read Forward’s Jacob Kornbluh for details.)

CLIP FILE

NYT: “White House Weighs Executive Orders on Gun Control,” by Annie Karni: “With Congress unlikely to move quickly on gun legislation, the White House is pressing ahead with plans for a series of executive orders that President Biden expects to roll out in the coming weeks as a way of keeping up pressure on the issue. … 

“[A]dministration officials have been reaching out to Democrats in the Senate to consult with them about three executive actions. One would classify as firearms so-called ghost guns — kits that allow a gun to be assembled from pieces. Another would fund community violence intervention programs, and the third would strengthen the background checks system, according to congressional aides familiar with the conversations.”

“Israel’s Election Ended in Another Mess. Could an Arab Party Break the Deadlock?” by Patrick Kingsley and Adam Rasgon in Jerusalem: “After a fourth Israeli election in two years appears to have ended in another stalemate, leaving many Israelis feeling trapped in an endless loop, there was at least one surprising result on Wednesday: An Arab political party has emerged as a potential kingmaker.

“Even more surprising, the party was Raam, an Islamist group with roots in the same religious movement as Hamas, the militant group that runs the Gaza Strip. For years, Raam was rarely interested in working with the Israeli leadership and, like most Arab parties, was ostracized by its Jewish counterparts.”

WaPo: “Biden faces a flurry of new challenges ahead of first White House news conference,” by Ashley Parker and Sean Sullivan

“Andrew Cuomo’s family members were given special access to covid testing, according to people familiar with the arrangement,” by Josh Dawsey, Amy Brittain and Sarah Ellison: “As the coronavirus pandemic swept through New York early last year, Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s administration arranged for his family members and other well-connected figures to have special access to state-administered coronavirus tests, dispatching a top state doctor and other state health officials to their homes, according to three people with direct knowledge of the effort.

“As part of the program, a state lab immediately processed the results of those who were tested, the people said, even as average New Yorkers were struggling to get tested in the early days of the pandemic because of a scarcity of resources. Initially, the lab was capable of running only several hundred tests a day for a state with 19 million residents.”

“Executive resigns from hospital that offered early vaccines to employees at Trump’s Chicago hotel,” by David Farenthold

WSJ: “Leap in Gas Prices Puts $3 a Gallon in Sight,” by Joe Wallace: “The prospect of summer drivers crowding U.S. highways is powering steep gains in the price of gasoline, a sign of economic recovery and a boon for the pandemic-ravaged energy industry.”

“Democrats Weigh Increases in Corporate, Personal Income-Tax Rates,” by Andrew Duehren and Rich Rubin

AP: “Colorado shooting suspect to make 1st court appearance,” by Colleen Slevin and Patty Nieberg

“AstraZeneca confirms strong vaccine protection after US rift,” by Lauran Neergaard: “AstraZeneca insisted Wednesday that its COVID-19 vaccine is strongly effective even after counting additional illnesses in its disputed U.S. study, the latest in an extraordinary public rift with American officials.

“In a late-night press release, AstraZeneca said it had recalculated data from that study and concluded the vaccine is 76% effective in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, instead of the 79% it had claimed earlier in the week.”

Politico: “Biden’s closest Senate ally emerges as a shadow secretary of state,” by Andrew Desiderio

DOWNTOWN MOVE

Veteran Capitol Hill aide Fred Turner, who most recently was chief of staff to Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), is joining BGR Group as senior vice president in the firm’s international affairs practice. Turner will also work with clients in the financial services and commerce practices. As Menendez’s chief, Turner served as the senator’s top policy and political aide, overseeing the Senate Foreign Relations chairman’s offices in Washington and New Jersey. Turner also worked for seven years as chief of staff at the U.S. Helsinki Commission. 

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