The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Can Arrington pass his budget resolution?

Gabbard confirmed as next DNI, RFK advances

The Vault: Powell doesn’t love the Fed’s top regulatory job

Slater says she’ll weigh costs of Big Tech antitrust cases

DOGE launches on a tame note. For now.

THE TOP

Can Arrington pass his budget resolution?

Happy Wednesday afternoon.

Welcome to the arena, House Republicans.

House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) released his spending and tax blueprint Wednesday morning – the initial step in kicking off the reconciliation process.

Arrington is already taking withering criticism from members of his own panel and the broader House Republican Conference.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a key member of the House Freedom Caucus, said there’ll be “modifications” to the budget resolution in committee during Thursday’s markup – or else Norman may vote no.

“Before the markup tomorrow, we had to get this out as a skeleton,” Norman said. “We got to fill the skeleton in. And a lot of us have some real feelings – strong feelings – about what’s being included.”

Norman said he wants to add the REINS Act to the resolution. The REINS Act is a bill to limit the government’s ability to promulgate rules and regulations.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), another HFC player who serves on the Budget Committee, said he still has to speak to Speaker Mike Johnson before committing to support the resolution. Roy said he wants specific commitments about the appropriations process, which is also kicking into full gear.

“I certainly need to see more details and more commitments for me to be able to support the bill tomorrow,” Roy said.

Arrington, however, is “confident” he’ll have the votes in committee to approve his resolution.

The details. This budget resolution will be quite controversial inside the House Republican Conference.

The blueprint gives the House Ways and Means Committee $4.5 trillion for tax cuts. Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), chair of the tax-writing panel, has been adamant that he needs a lot more room to do everything Republicans want: extending the 2017 tax cuts and President Donald Trump’s new tax priorities.

Capping Ways and Means’ deficit number at $4.5 trillion means Republicans would have to make very difficult choices. Remember: Along with extending the Trump tax cuts, the GOP needs to address SALT. Do tax writers go for fewer tax cuts, or dig into offsets? Tax committee pay-fors will get politically difficult very quickly, but this number is already revving up the offset conversation.

And under this budget resolution, there’s no realistic way that Republicans could deliver something the Trump administration has made very clear it wants: permanency for the 2017 tax cuts. Republicans need a “current policy baseline” to achieve that, and this budget resolution doesn’t have it.

Smith told reporters the instruction is “a good starting point.”

Arrington wanted the tax number to be closer to $4 trillion. Getting him to $4.5 trillion was a big win for the GOP leadership, even though it’s short of what Smith wanted.

Still, there will be conservatives in the House who are unhappy with such a large tax number. And some Ways and Means members are comfortable with the $4.5 trillion in room, though others hoped for far more. Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah), a Budget Committee member who serves in the House GOP leadership, said “everybody’s going to have to give” when it comes to unhappiness with the tax number.

“We may not have every tax benefit that we want,” Moore said.

There are $1.5 trillion in spending cuts in the package, but the way the bill is written, Republicans could push for a higher total savings number.

Here are the cut amounts the key committees will be charged to find:

– Agriculture: $230 billion

– Education and Workforce: $330 billion

– Energy and Commerce: $880 billion. This is, of course, the largest number. And Republicans expect big changes to Medicaid.

– Financial Services: $1 billion

– Homeland Security: $90 billion

– Judiciary: $110 billion

– Oversight and Government Reform: $50 billion

– Transportation and Infrastructure: $10 billion

Several panels – Armed Services, Homeland Security and Judiciary – are authorized to increase the deficit for new spending for the Pentagon and border security.

The legislation also includes a $4 trillion increase in the debt limit. The debt limit has been a moving target for House Republican leadership. They had initially pulled it out of reconciliation, worried that it could cost Republicans votes. But GOP leaders added it back in, partially to appease Trump and because hardline conservatives finally agreed. We’ll see if this sticks.

Here are some dynamics to consider:

1) The obvious question is can Arrington get this through the Budget Committee on Thursday. We’re not entirely positive he can. But there’s going to be tremendous pressure on Republicans to vote yes.

2) A legislative expert pointed out to us that there’s no mechanism in this proposal to boost spending cuts to the $2 trillion minimum the House Freedom Caucus has sought.

3) The House goes out of session tomorrow until Feb. 24. How will this budget resolution age over that time period?

4) When considering the timeline for Trump’s legislative agenda, remember that the Senate is in the midst of marking up its own budget blueprint. Eventually, both chambers have to adopt the same budget resolution. There’s a way to go.

Ukraine: Trump announced that he’ll begin negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine, a huge development in the deadly three-year conflict.

Trump and Putin spoke today, the president said, and he planned to inform Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of his decision to begin the talks. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, NSA Michael Waltz and special envoy Steve Witkoff will lead the negotiations for the U.S. side.

Here’s Trump:

Trump’s announcement came as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, on his first trip to NATO headquarters, said it was an “unrealistic objective” for Ukraine to return to its pre-2014 borders. Russia seized and occupied Crimea at that time, as well as parts of eastern Ukraine.

– Jake Sherman, Laura Weiss, Samantha Handler and John Bresnahan

February Brown Bag Lunch Community Briefing

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NOMS, NOMS, NOMS

Gabbard confirmed as next DNI, RFK advances

The Senate confirmed former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D) as director of national intelligence on Wednesday by a 52-48 vote, marking an impressive comeback for one of President Donald Trump’s more unorthodox nominees.

The Senate also invoked cloture on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination as health and human services secretary, setting up a confirmation vote at 6:30 a.m. on Thursday. The vote was 53-47, a straight party-line result.

Every Republican except Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) voted for Gabbard. The vote total represented a stark turnaround from where Gabbard stood following her Senate Intelligence Committee hearing when Republican senators expressed dismay at her failure to disavow NSA leaker Edward Snowden.

An aggressive lobbying campaign ensued, involving Intelligence Committee Chair Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Vice President JD Vance. When Gabbard won over Sens. Todd Young (R-Ind.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) in committee, her confirmation was all but sealed.

Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah), who said that Gabbard’s hearing raised more questions than answers, told us he voted for Gabbard after receiving assurances from intelligence community figures.

But for McConnell, Gabbard’s past views — on FISA Section 702, Ukraine, Russia, Syria and Lebanon — couldn’t be reconciled.

“The nation should not have to worry that the intelligence assessments the President receives are tainted by a Director of National Intelligence with a history of alarming lapses in judgment,” McConnell said in a statement.

In other RFK news: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) announced she would support Kennedy’s nomination, despite her concerns about his vaccine views.

– Max Cohen and John Bresnahan

CUT, CUT, CUT

DOGE launches on a tame note. For now.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) made her highly-anticipated debut leading the DOGE subcommittee this morning, but the overall mood was pretty tame.

Several members predicted the hearing would bring partisan fireworks, but the panel was relatively civil over the topic of improper payments made by the federal government.

There were only a few eyebrow-raising moments where members brought some heat.

For example, Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) took a direct shot at Greene being named chair of the panel. Garcia told us ahead of the hearing he urged Democrats to match Greene’s bombastic nature.

“I find it ironic, of course, that our chairwoman, Congresswoman Greene is in charge of running this committee,” Garcia said. “In the last Congress, Chairwoman Greene literally showed a dick pic in our congressional Oversight hearing so I thought I’d bring one as well.”

Garcia then held up a blown-up photograph of Elon Musk following his remarks.

Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), a frequent sparring partner of Greene’s, called out the Georgia Republican for missing Oversight hearings last year that focused on the same topic covered today.

“Interestingly enough, our chairwoman who is so passionate about this today, missed every single one of those improper payment hearings and just to be clear, I was there,” Crockett said.

Meanwhile, Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas) blasted Democrats for ditching the hearing early and putting their focus on Musk rather than the topic of the day.

“Of the six Democrats on this committee, only one can even be bothered to stay for the duration of this hearing,” Gill said. “All we’ve heard about for most of this hearing from the other side of the aisle is Elon Musk, Elon Musk, Elon Musk.”

In an interview with us earlier this week, Greene said she would pick the topics for each hearing and wanted to hold today’s topic of improper payments before Tax Day.

Greene argued that the idea of DOGE and slashing the size and spending of government is one of the most popular topics in the country.

“The American people will be watching this committee and how we tackle one of the biggest problems of our time,” Greene said in her opening remarks.

Greene is planning to release a plan featuring legislative proposals in the days ahead.

– Mica Soellner

… AND THERE’S MORE

Downtown Download. Amazon has hired PhronesisDC to lobby on taxes.

The Money Game. Today is a long day – especially with snow on the ground. Do you need a break? At 3 p.m., Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.) will have a “pretzel break” fundraiser. Tickets range from $500 to $2,500.

– Jake Sherman

CLIPS