If you thought the Texas Senate race couldn’t be more of a mess, you’re in for a surprise.
Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R-Texas) entrance into the GOP primary against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has further complicated the election in deep-red Texas.
It’s a massive headache for Senate Republican leaders, who have been trying to help Cornyn and block Paxton from the nomination out of fear that he’s too controversial to win a general election in Nov. 2026. But for months, Cornyn has trailed Paxton in most primary polling.
With Hunt’s launch, this race is now almost certainly heading to a May runoff, prolonging the expensive and high-stakes Republican brawl.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged he was worried that Hunt’s candidacy could create a messy primary. But Thune said Cornyn is “in great shape” and hopes the veteran GOP senator — whom he defeated in last year’s Senate Republican leadership race — can get President Donald Trump’s endorsement.
“Hopefully the president will engage at some point. But for right now, we want to do everything we can to make sure [Cornyn is] the nominee. It’ll keep the Senate seat and a bunch of House seats from being put in play, and save everybody a lot of money that can be used in other places,” Thune said.
The Trump factor. The president is staying quiet for now, even as Thune and the NRSC have strongly advocated for Cornyn.
After expressing skepticism of Trump’s comeback in 2023, Cornyn hasn’t yet earned the president’s endorsement.
“I talk to the president regularly. But he’s not ready,” Cornyn said of the possibility of a Trump endorsement.
But here’s something worth considering: Trump has been more than willing to help House and Senate GOP leaders clear primaries. At Trump’s urging, Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) both passed on statewide bids in their respective states.
Hunt is a longtime ally of Trump. And he’s been taking steps toward this run for months, polling and running statewide TV ads to boost his name ID.
The White House didn’t push Hunt into the race, but they also didn’t wave him off, multiple sources told us. We don’t expect the White House to weigh in with an endorsement anytime soon, certainly not before the Dec. 8 filing deadline.
What comes next? This race was in a holding pattern until now. One Nation, a nonprofit aligned with Thune, and a pro-Cornyn super PAC have spent a combined $20 million so far trying to close the gap with Paxton. The contest was just starting to tighten as Hunt jumped in.
Paxton has largely left Cornyn alone. Some of that is to conserve resources, but Paxton and his allies also feel confident they can take Cornyn in a two-man race.
Hunt’s plan is simple. The former Army helicopter pilot is presenting himself as the sane alternative to what he sees as two unpopular candidates. His goal will be to knock Cornyn out and then take Paxton on in the runoff.
Cornyn and his supporters will have choices to make. Cornyn could attack Hunt to nip his candidacy in the bud before it gains traction. However, Cornyn then risks giving Paxton the space to rebuild the big lead he lost under the tens of millions of dollars in pro-Cornyn spending.
The NRSC insists Hunt’s candidacy is a vanity project and that all he does is push the primary into a runoff. And remember, the runoff electorate is smaller and more conservative. It’s the activists and hardcore Republicans who will show up, and that crowd benefits Paxton.
In short, there’s no easy way out for Texas Republicans.
“I like and admire all three of them. I’ve long said I am staying out of this race,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said.
