A string of Democratic victories from coast to coast has eaten into the clear advantage House Republicans once held in the mid-decade redistricting wars.
That’s left the GOP increasingly reliant on the remaining red states, mainly Indiana, Florida and possibly Kansas.
Shortly before 2 a.m. ET Tuesday morning, a Utah state judge dealt Republicans a shocking blow: a new congressional map with a safe blue seat in Salt Lake County.
“The Utah thing caught everyone by surprise,” Rep. Nick Langworthy (R-N.Y.) said. “I’ve not seen anything until today that surprised me. This looks like judicial overreach.”
That unexpected ruling was the latest in a series of unwelcome developments for House Republicans and President Donald Trump, who began this effort to shore up control of the chamber no matter what happens in the 2026 midterms.
Republicans lost as many as five House seats in California with last week’s passage of Prop 50. A compromise map in Ohio left Democratic prospects intact in three swing seats. And a Democratic play to redistrict three new seats in Virginia appears to be going according to plan.
North Carolina, Texas and Missouri have passed new maps that favor the GOP. But other states have lagged, as reluctant lawmakers and political geography threaten to blunt their gains.
Indiana Senate President Pro Tempore Rod Bray has consistently said his chamber doesn’t have the votes to push through redistricting, despite White House pressure. And the Kansas legislature hasn’t been able to muster the votes to petition itself into a special session. Success in those states could net three more Republican seats.
Florida will begin exploring redistricting next year and could yield anywhere from two to five GOP seats. Republicans may be eager to go big after recent losses, but they’ll have to avoid stretching their South Florida voters too thin.
The Supreme Court’s upcoming Voting Rights Act decision in the Louisiana case is another wild card.
Utah. The new map in Utah was submitted by the plaintiffs who sued to overturn the map the legislature implemented for 2022. That proposal created a deep-blue seat that former Vice President Kamala Harris would have won by about 24 points.
The other three seats remain safely Republican. But the GOP now has to deal with the fact that it has four incumbent members and only three districts.
This map draws GOP Rep. Mike Kennedy in with fellow GOP Rep. Celeste Maloy. It maintains much of Republican Rep. Blake Moore’s northern Utah district. The new version of Rep. Burgess Owens’ district includes much of his current turf. Of course, these members could run in any district.
Republicans hoped the judge would accept the legislature’s proposed map, which created a competitive seat that Trump would have carried by two points and a light red seat that Trump would have carried by seven points.
In a favorable environment, Democrats could pick up both seats, although they could also lose both. Now, they are guaranteed one.
Republicans will appeal this decision to the Utah Supreme Court, claiming the state’s constitution mandates that the legislature must draw the congressional map. But many party operatives aren’t hopeful.
