Democrats notched wins across the nation Tuesday, from a little-known state office in Georgia to snagging the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia. These races delivered a trove of data on how the electorate feels about both parties and President Donald Trump’s first year in office.
Two things stuck out to us as we sifted through the results. One trend gives Democrats reason for optimism ahead of 2026. Another offers a note of caution.
Let’s dive in.
Hispanic voters in New Jersey. Trump found surprising strength in New Jersey in 2024, propelled by a rightward shift among Latino voters. But it was unclear that what happened last year was Trump-specific or in fact indicative of a wholesale disillusionment with the Democratic Party.
The three most Latino counties in New Jersey — Passaic, Cumberland and Hudson — offer key insight.
Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) won Passaic County, which is 43% Latino, by a whopping 15 points. In 2024, Trump won it by three points.
Sherrill won Cumberland County by four points, a seven-point shift from Trump’s three-point win there in 2024. And in Hudson County, Sherrill pulled a 50-point win, nearly doubling former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 28-point margin.
This is just one state, but it suggests that Latino voters aren’t wedded to the GOP, especially amid Trump’s harsh immigration crackdown. Trump and the 2024 election may have been an outlier than a permanent realignment.
This matters because Democrats have to defend a slew of heavily Latino districts in South Texas, New Mexico, Nevada, California and Florida. They’re banking on Latino voters swinging back in their direction. Meanwhile, Republicans drew maps in Texas hoping Trump’s Latino support would transfer to generic GOP candidates.
Virginia’s House of Delegates. What happened in the state legislature drew less attention than the governorship, but Democrats grew their majority in the Virginia House of Delegates. They’re on track to flip 13 districts.
Which seats Democrats won are also informative. They swept the eight GOP-held seats that Harris carried in 2024. Then Democrats flipped another five that Trump carried by between one and five points.
But Democrats didn’t flip any seats that Trump won by more than five points, though one such race does remain too close to call. That’s not great news for Democrats when you extrapolate it out.
In Congress, there are only three Republicans in Harris-won seats. And there are only a dozen or so GOP-held House seats that Trump won by five points or less, thanks to redistricting. That number is growing smaller thanks to the mid-decade round of remaps.
This doesn’t mean Democrats can’t retake the House. But Virginia didn’t signal that the environment is favorable enough to help them push deep into Trump turf. And Democrats may need that in these House races.
