Tomorrow is Election Day.
The 2024 election cycle — one of the most bizarre of our lifetime — is coming to a close. Look at everything that’s happened in the last six months:
— On May 1, former President Donald Trump was leading President Joe Biden in the polls, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulling roughly 10% of the vote. But following a disastrous June 27 debate performance (just 130 days ago!) and facing a revolt from Hill Democrats led in part by former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Biden withdrew. He was immediately replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris. It changed everything. Harris’ popularity soared, and her fundraising was off the charts. For the first time this cycle, Democrats had energy — and some hope.
— A would-be assassin wounded Trump and killed a spectator during a July 13 rally in Butler, Pa. The deadly episode set off a political firestorm on Capitol Hill. The Secret Service director later resigned, and both the House and DHS launched investigations. A second potential Trump assassin was arrested on Sept. 15 in Florida, raising another round of complaints about Trump’s security.
— Harris and Trump faced off in a debate on Sept. 10. Trump lost that debate and his campaign faltered, only to seem to regain its momentum later on.
— Trump has been erratic, at best, during the last few weeks. The Madison Square Garden rally will go down as a textbook example of political malpractice. Trump also said he was open to RFK Jr.’s call for the federal government to stop using fluoride in drinking water and — more alarmingly — curtail the use of vaccines.
On Sunday, Trump said during a rally in Lititz, Pa., that he shouldn’t have left office in January 2021. Trump also suggested he wouldn’t mind if reporters get shot in any assassination attempt against him and he complained about a new poll in Iowa that showed Harris up by three points.
— Senate Republicans were supposed to have a really good cycle. They still could. Yet sitting here just before Election Day, they seem right now to have secured just two victories: Montana and West Virginia. In Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Democratic candidates and incumbents are still competitive or even ahead. And Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego looks like he’s set to be the next senator from Arizona.
— House Republicans expected to be running in this critical election with Kevin McCarthy as speaker. Instead, they have Mike Johnson. Johnson has kept up with McCarthy’s fundraising pace, but there’s some real anxiety about the speaker’s performance down the stretch.
Let’s spend a minute on Johnson. Twice during the last week, the speaker has been forced to walk back controversial statements he made on the trail.
Campaigning in Bethlehem, Pa., Johnson appeared to say that Republicans would seek to repeal Obamacare. The speaker later insisted he didn’t say that but wanted to lower health-care costs.
And then during a stop in upstate New York, Johnson said he’d seek to repeal the CHIPS and Science Act, which has brought billions of dollars of investment to hard-hit communities in the Empire State. Johnson later said he misheard the question and doesn’t intend to repeal the CHIPS Act — an explanation that even some of his closest allies don’t believe. See the exchange for yourself.
Are any of these incidents going to swing the election? Probably not. But it could set Johnson up for major criticism should House Republicans fall short on Election Day.
We’ll also say this — if anyone tells you they know what’s going to happen tomorrow, ignore them. They don’t.
During the past two presidential campaigns, polls underestimated Trump’s performance. He could crack the “Blue Wall” in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, vaulting himself back into the Oval Office while carrying some or all of the trio of Senate GOP candidates in those states to victory. That’s very possible.
Or Harris can run the table and win North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan and Arizona, making her the first woman president.
The latest polls also show very tight Senate contests in the three critical Midwestern states. Democratic Sen. Bob Casey has a small but consistent lead over Republican David McCormick in Pennsylvania. Same for Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin over former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan, and incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) over Republican Eric Hovde in Wisconsin.
All of these races are tightening and well within the margin of error, so either side could win. It’s all down to the wire, of course. Like everything else this year.
