PHOENIX — Vice President Kamala Harris and her yet-to-be-named running mate will cap off a five-day battleground state swing in Arizona and Nevada later this week, two states where Republicans think they can win not only at the presidential level but also flip Senate seats.
We’re on the ground in both states this week to dig into their respective Senate races and whether the top of the ticket will impact these crucial down-ballot races.
For several months, former President Donald Trump has been out-performing the Senate GOP challengers in the battleground states. Republicans are hoping to turn that trend around with just three months until Election Day.
Arizona: Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and GOP nominee Kari Lake avoided a potentially treacherous three-way race in the Grand Canyon State when Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) decided not to seek reelection.
Lake is coming off a primary victory that was closer than expected, leading Democrats to question whether Arizona Republicans are truly united behind her. But Lake got a boost when Karrin Taylor Robson, a one-time rival and an establishment Republican, endorsed her last week.
The NRSC backed Lake early on, though some Republicans had reservations about whether Lake could be competitive after losing the gubernatorial race in 2022 and repeating Trump’s false claims about a stolen election.
Among Democrats, Gallego consolidated support within his party pretty quickly after emerging as a top critic of Sinema from the left. Gallego served in the Marines for six years and deployed to Iraq before winning a House seat in 2014.
His progressive voting record has come under scrutiny from Republicans. Gallego has been mildly critical of the Biden administration over its handling of the migrant crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border. This is obviously a massively important issue in Arizona, and one that Trump and Lake could benefit from if they play their cards right.
The latest RealClearPolitics polling average has Gallego ahead by a few points but Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a similar margin.
Like other Democratic Senate candidates, Gallego is highlighting abortion rights as a key theme of his campaign. But he’s also launching an effort this week to attract Republicans.
This is aimed at wooing the state’s formidable bloc of so-called “McCain Republicans” — the late GOP Sen. John McCain is still much revered in the state — and voters who may have otherwise supported Sinema. Gallego believes he can attract independents and centrist Republicans by portraying Lake as too extreme.
Nevada: We were out in the Silver State almost exactly one year ago to start diving into the race between Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) and GOP challenger Sam Brown.
Republicans in D.C. have been high on Brown for a long time now. Brown, a retired Army captain, was severely injured when his convoy was bombed in Afghanistan.
GOP senators have told us that they believe the combination of Brown’s inspiring personal story plus the changing electorate and unique economic conditions in Nevada can help Republicans flip this seat. In an interview last week, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell named Brown as being among a slate of “fabulous” GOP candidates. Of course, McConnell was vocal about “candidate quality” being a problem for the party in 2022.
Rosen is doing an event in Las Vegas this week with EMILY’s List, the pro-abortion rights group. Rosen’s campaign believes she’ll benefit from the fact that abortion rights will be on the ballot in the state in November.
Like other Democrats, Rosen is also highlighting the implementation of the bipartisan achievements of the last Congress, including the infrastructure bill, which has paved the way for a long-desired high-speed train route between Las Vegas and Los Angeles.
The RealClearPolitics polling average has shown Rosen with a pretty consistent lead over Brown, though Trump is slightly ahead of Harris.
— Andrew Desiderio
