It has been one year since Hamas’ Oct. 7 terror attack on Israel.
That brutal terrorist rampage left more than 1,200 Israelis dead and hundreds more held hostage. More than 40 Americans were killed, and four still remain as hostages.
The ensuing Israeli military campaigns to destroy Hamas in Gaza and now Hezbollah in Lebanon have led to tens of thousands of Palestinian deaths and hundreds of thousands of refugees.
Even more worrying, Israel and Iran — which has launched two direct attacks on the Jewish State — may be on the verge of a broader war that could pull in the United States and other powers.
The aftershocks of Oct. 7 have seeped far deeper into the fabric of American society than anyone could’ve possibly predicted. The FBI and Department of Homeland Security are warning of possible terror attacks today, while some schools are preparing for pro-Palestinian student walkouts. Protestors have camped out at the end of Rep. Greg Landsman’s (D-Ohio) driveway.
It’s also changed the nature of U.S. support for Israel, a fact that’s crystal clear to high-ranking members of the Israeli government and intelligentsia based on our recent trips to Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
Republicans have become even more closely aligned with Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, if possible. GOP lawmakers have flocked to Jerusalem while Netanyahu in turn used them to pressure President Joe Biden and other top administration officials.
The war in Gaza also helped set off an ugly wave of antisemitism at U.S. colleges and the resignations of Ivy League presidents; led to the most expensive House primary ever; sparked bitter fights inside the House Democratic Caucus and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; and left the highest-ranking Jewish pol in American history, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, openly feuding with Netanyahu.
The Democratic Party’s existing divisions over Israel only got worse during the war. Large contingents of Hill Democrats have sought unsuccessfully to use Congress’ power to try to block or otherwise place conditions on U.S. weapons sales to Israel. This would’ve been unheard of pre-Oct. 7.
In fact, the United States has found itself on both sides of the Gaza conflict. It’s spent tens of billions of dollars to boost Israel while simultaneously supplying billions in humanitarian aid to Palestinians.
The White House openly disdains Netanyahu — and he gives it right back. Check out this excerpt from Vice President Kamala Harris’ “60 Minutes” interview with Bill Whitaker scheduled to air tonight:
We’ll note that in the immediate aftermath of Oct. 7, Biden traveled to Israel and pledged total U.S. support. He even hugged Netanyahu.
Yet not even a month later, the then newly installed Speaker Mike Johnson tried several times to pass a $14 billion Israel aid bill along party lines. The Senate and White House rejected the move, and Israel had to wait until the spring to get more aid.
By early 2024, following months of deadly Israeli attacks inside Gaza and growing White House frustration with Netanyahu, Hill Democrats and top Biden administration officials were courting Israeli opposition leader Benny Gantz as a potential Netanyahu successor.
The assault on Rafah in southern Gaza this spring may have been the low point for U.S.-Israel relations. Biden withheld some American-made weapons, fearful that an Israeli assault on Rafah would lead to another massive wave of civilian casualties. And he made sure everyone knew this. Netanyahu and Republicans pointed to the move as a signal that Biden was about to abandon Israel, which led to a furious pushback from the White House.
Since that time, Netanyahu has ignored Biden’s repeated efforts to force a Gaza ceasefire. Now with war spreading to southern Lebanon and Iran launching missile barrages at Israel, all of that has moved to the background.
So what’s next? The wild card at the moment is how Israel responds to the Iranian provocation, and how Iran counters that in turn. There are also huge questions over how long the Israeli campaign against Hezbollah lasts. The White House has shifted its messaging since the Iranian attack. Gen. Michael Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command, has been in Israel over the past few days helping coordinate any Israeli attack on Iran.
Netanyahu and Israel, though, have an enormous amount at stake on Election Day. If Harris wins, U.S. support will continue, but possibly with conditions that Netanyahu won’t like. If former President Donald Trump wins, Netanyahu will likely be allowed to do whatever he wants. Trump will just want credit for any Israeli victory and he’ll want it over fast.
Where they are: Schumer will attend an Oct. 7 commemoration ceremony in New York this evening, in addition to visiting his synagogue. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will also attend commemoration events. Johnson will be in Las Vegas at a Republican Jewish Coalition event. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell issued this statement.
