Two key mid-Atlantic states are scheduled to make major redistricting moves this week.
House Democrats are leaning hard on Maryland and Virginia to help cancel out Republicans’ final major redistricting push in Florida. But neither state has had a smooth process, and time is running out.
At stake in Virginia are four congressional seats. Voters will be required to give the Democratic-controlled legislature permission to draw a new congressional map, and the state lawmakers need to decide what that map will look like.
In Maryland, the top state Senate Democrat is standing in the way of a one-seat pickup. But the pressure campaign on him has only just begun.
Here’s what to expect this week.
Virginia. It could be map week in the Old Dominion. Virginia Democrats said they planned to release their proposed new map by the end of the month, ahead of the April 21 referendum vote.
The big question has been whether Democrats will shoot for a 10D-1R map or a 9D-2R one. Virginia Democratic leaders want to be more aggressive than some of their congressional colleagues, and the state leaders are the ones proposing the map. But the Virginia House of Delegates and state Senate need to agree on a specific map and that could hold up the release.
Beyond the map, Democrats are carefully monitoring a legal challenge to their redistricting gambit that’s currently before a circuit court judge. Republicans are pointing to a Virginia code provision that requires a proposed constitutional amendment to be posted publicly 90 days before the next election of the House of Delegates. Virginia Democrats didn’t do this for their redistricting proposal prior to the 2025 elections.
Virginia Democrats counter that while the provision remains in Virginia’s legal code, it was taken out of the state’s constitution and therefore no longer applies.
This court decision could throw a curveball at Democrats’ redistricting dreams.
Maryland. The Maryland House of Delegates released a proposed constitutional amendment to implement a new congressional map for 2026. There will be a hearing on the map on Tuesday and it is expected to pass when put up for a floor vote, possibly as soon as this week.
If and when it passes, you can expect the pressure on Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson to skyrocket.
Addressing reporters Friday, Ferguson repeatedly refused to commit to putting redistricting on the Senate floor. Ferguson said that his main focus is on affordability.
One notable part of the proposed amendment: it kicks the map into place for 2026 but it allows Maryland voters to decide whether they want it to stay for 2028 and 2030.
The proposed new map would likely net Democrats all of the state’s eight seats and boot Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.). Rep. April McClain Delaney’s (D-Md.) seat in western Maryland would become more favorable for Democrats.
An open 3rd District seat that connects the Baltimore area with the northern section of the Eastern Shore is the most competitive in the state. Former Vice President Kamala Harris would have won it by nearly nine points in 2024.
