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The House of Representatives has only expelled six members in its 237-year history. But now, there are calls to expel as many as four members immediately.

Expulsion free-for-all in the House

The House of Representatives has only expelled six members in its 237-year history, the most recent being former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) in 2023.

But now, there are calls to expel as many as four members immediately, only one of whom has been found guilty of any ethics violation — Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (Fla.). Cherfilus-McCormick faces a sanctions hearing by the full Ethics Committee on April 21, with expulsion potentially on the table. The three-term House member also faces a federal criminal trial that’s scheduled to begin Jan. 20 in Miami.

The expulsion mania reflects the extraordinary situation that House leaders in both parties face right now. Rank-and-file members are calling for “One-of-ours-for-one-of-theirs” trade. That looks good at first glance, but it’ll be much more difficult to pull off in reality. We’ll explain.

The sexual assault scandal involving Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) that broke Friday night has led to calls for the California Democrat’s expulsion if he doesn’t resign immediately. Swalwell suspended his gubernatorial campaign on Sunday evening in the wake of reports by the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN outlining alleged sexual assaults or harassment of four women.

On Friday evening, House Democratic leaders took the unusual step of calling on Swalwell to end his gubernatorial campaign. Given the super-cautious nature of the House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries-led leadership team, this shows how serious the allegations are.

Also in serious trouble are GOP Reps. Cory Mills (Fla.) and Tony Gonzales (Texas). Mills is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee over “allegations of sexual misconduct and/or dating violence,” as well as campaign finance and gift violations.

Gonzales — who announced he wouldn’t run again — is under investigation by the Ethics Committee too. Gonzales has admitted to an extramarital affair with an aide who later died by suicide. Speaker Mike Johnson and other House GOP leaders demanded Gonzales retire.

All of which leads to the “one-of-ours-for-one-of-theirs” situation. Some members are already calling for a trade — Gonzales for Swalwell. Or two Democrats — Cherfilus-McCormick and Swalwell — could be expelled at the same time as Republicans Gonzales and Mills. An expulsion vote could happen as early as Wednesday, we’ve been told.

Such a move wouldn’t really change the balance of power in the House because it doesn’t change the voting margin of two votes. The House ratio will be 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats and one Independent once Rep.-elect Clay Fuller (R-Ga.) is sworn in this week. That’s a two-vote margin.

But that’s not how it’s done. This all sounds very good on social media, but expelling two or four members in some big political trade isn’t how it’s done. Or it hasn’t been anyway.

Not to downplay the very serious allegations against Swalwell in any way — they may even be criminal — but there’s been no Ethics Committee or even Office of Congressional Conduct investigation into the matter at this point. The story broke on Friday. It’s hard to imagine the House would expel him this week. A lot of members would be shocked and appalled, even though Swalwell has tons of GOP enemies.

Plus, the Mills and Gonzales’ cases are still under investigation by the Ethics panel, the only bipartisan committee in the House. The Swalwell scandal will put pressure on Ethics to speed up those probes.

Always remember that the Ethics panel isn’t a law-enforcement agency. It’s a committee made up of members appointed by party leaders to an assignment they loathe, so the process is naturally slow and very lawyerly.

Democratic and GOP leaders are going to move cautiously here. Many members didn’t like the precedent set by the Santos expulsion, which happened even before the New York Republican was found guilty of a crime (President Donald Trump eventually commuted Santos’ seven-year prison sentence).

New York Republicans wanted Santos out quickly because he was a problem back home. Will Swalwell become a problem for California Democrats now that he’s out of the gubernatorial race? We’ll have to see.

And can Democratic and GOP leaders trust each other enough to do a one-for-one or even two-for-two trade? There were no discussions on this over the weekend as far as we can tell.

Majority math. Here’s something else to keep in mind. If the House were to expel Gonzales and Swalwell, Texas GOP Gov. Greg Abbott has more leeway in how quickly to call a special election than California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. That’s got to be at least somewhat comforting to Johnson.

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