Happy New Year and welcome to 2025. We’re only publishing AM editions this week. But given the busy news cycle, we’ll send out texts and special editions as needed.
There are 19 days until Donald Trump is sworn in for his second term as president. And it’s just two days until the 119th Congress kicks off. That’s where we’ll begin.
The main event: Choosing a speaker. The House will vote Friday to elect a speaker for the 119th Congress. Trump has endorsed Speaker Mike Johnson for another term. Trump told reporters Tuesday night at Mar-a-Lago that he isn’t calling anyone on Johnson’s behalf, but he will if necessary.
“He’s the one that can win right now,” Trump said of Johnson. “People like him. Almost everybody likes him. Others are very good too but they have 30 or 40 people that don’t like [them.] So that’s pretty tough. … He’s a good man. He’s a wonderful person. And that’s what you need.”
Yet Johnson is in a tight spot — to say the least. There are roughly a dozen House Republicans who have expressed skepticism about electing the speaker to another term. And with the paper-thin GOP majority, that’s problematic.
So there are several questions to focus on. The first is obvious: Can Johnson win? The second: Will it take Johnson multiple ballots to secure the speakership? Third: Does Johnson weaken himself so much in his quest to keep the speaker’s gavel that he can’t govern? And lastly but most importantly: Does Trump pull back if he sees Johnson’s weakness?
In addition to his Trump endorsement, Johnson’s greatest attribute is that there’s still no obvious alternative to the Louisiana Republican. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Majority Whip Tom Emmer and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) all want the job, but like in October 2023, they all face huge obstacles.
Jordan’s allies will never let Scalise be speaker, and vice versa. Emmer has made strides in his relationship with Trump, but he’s still seen as a bit of a turncoat in Trump world after voting to certify Joe Biden’s victory in 2021.
Other potential candidates — say House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) — don’t want the job.
The basics. House Republicans hold a razor-slim majority with just 219 seats. They’d have 220 if former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) shows up on Jan. 3. Gaetz resigned from the 118th Congress but he could — theoretically — get sworn into the 119th.
This all means that Johnson may only be able to lose between one and three votes, depending on whether members vote for another candidate by name and who votes “present.” Whether all 215 Democrats will be there is another question (Members don’t get paid if they don’t get sworn in, which happens after the speaker vote.) We won’t know more until members start voting on the floor.
House Republicans don’t currently plan to have a GOP conference meeting Friday morning ahead of the vote.
The no’s. Inside the House Republican leadership, just one GOP lawmaker is seen as completely unmovable and will oppose Johnson come hell or high water: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). Massie has chafed at Johnson’s leadership for months. Massie has been on a bit of an X rampage about Johnson of late. He laid out a quite detailed case against Johnson on New Year’s Eve.
Then there are those like Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas). Roy has been calling colleagues to discuss how to proceed. A Jordan ally, Roy has cast doubt on Johnson’s ability to advance Trump’s agenda. But even those closest to Jordan say that they don’t think it’s feasible for the Ohio Republican to become speaker.
There are 11 Republicans who voted to oust Johnson back in May after he brought a massive Ukraine aid package to the floor: Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Eric Burlison (Mo.), Eli Crane (Ariz.), Warren Davidson (Ohio), Paul Gosar (Ariz.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), Barry Moore (Ala.), Victoria Spartz (Ind.), Roy and Massie.
Biggs told Fox News he’s not committed to Johnson publicly or privately. Burlison has been sharply critical of Johnson since the recent government-funding vote. Spartz sent Johnson a list of demands — many of them unachievable — in exchange for her vote.
What Johnson has going for him. Johnson has been working the conference by phone over the Christmas break. He held a call with the Five Families — the different ideological factions in the House GOP — and individual lawmakers.
Some members of the House Freedom Caucus are actively trying to search for an alternative to Johnson, quizzing each other about what candidate could win. But they don’t have a viable alternative that can get to 218.
Others in the hardline caucus have been wondering what concessions they could get from Johnson. But sources close to Johnson say he isn’t interested in “backroom deals,” including altering the rules package for the 119th Congress.
Remember — if there’s no speaker by Jan. 6, the House can’t certify Trump’s Electoral College victory. So it’s in Trump’s interest to get a speaker quickly and Johnson is the incumbent.
