As abortion dominates the 2024 election conversation, Senate Democrats are talking more seriously about creating a filibuster carve-out to codify Roe v. Wade if there’s a Democratic trifecta in Washington.
To be clear, full Democratic control of Washington isn’t likely with Republicans poised to win the Senate. But Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is tying abortion rights to filibuster reform in the hope it’ll help his party’s candidates and incumbents in November, especially in states where abortion rights are on the ballot.
Schumer’s vulnerable incumbents are taking those cues.
“I am certainly open to filibuster reform when it comes to constitutional and fundamental rights,” said Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), who’s facing a competitive reelection campaign against Republican Eric Hovde.
It’s no surprise that Democrats like Baldwin are placing a heavy emphasis on abortion, which has proven to be a winning issue for the party since the overturning of Roe v. Wade. But connecting it to the filibuster is an extra step — and a conscious decision by Schumer.
Schumer told us at the Democratic convention last month that he’s confident he’d have the votes to bypass the filibuster for an abortion bill. Schumer floated the possibility of seeking carve-outs for other legislation, too.
“I get asked about it. Individual members have come to me,” Schumer told us. “It’s pretty certain that voting rights — if we get our 50 and Kamala’s president, we have the votes to do that.”
The last time Democrats tried a filibuster carve-out — for voting rights — they were two votes short because Sens. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) opposed the move.
But with both centrist senators retiring at the end of this year, Schumer’s theoretical Democratic majority would almost certainly have the votes to weaken the filibuster.
Abortion on the ballot: Voters in four states with closely-watched Senate races — Arizona, Nevada, Montana and Florida — will get to choose whether to enshrine abortion rights in their state’s constitution this year.
This is generally helpful to Democrats, who have seen abortion rights win out in practically every state where it’s been on the ballot since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
But it’s not a sure bet unless voters who are motivated by the abortion ballot initiatives also vote for Democrats up and down the ballot.
Here’s Schumer:
November impacts: Not every Democrat seems to be totally on board with the filibuster connection, however. DSCC Chair Gary Peters dodged the question of a Roe filibuster carve-out when we asked him this week.
And during a press call promoting Sen. Jacky Rosen’s (D-Nev.) pro-choice record, Reproductive Freedom for All President Mini Timmaraju wouldn’t commit to backing filibuster changes to codify Roe.
“We support robust discussion and evaluation of the rules by Senate Democrats to get this past the finish line,” Timmaraju said. “We want our Senate Democrats to look at all options.”
Republicans are dug in against any changes to the Senate’s 60-vote threshold, though former President Donald Trump has called for its elimination several times, and Democrats believe a Senate GOP majority would heed his calls.
GOP candidates and incumbents on the ballot in November are warning that if Democrats control the Senate, they’ll gut the filibuster entirely — not just for one-off legislation.
“If Schumer gets one more vote, he will end the filibuster altogether,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who’s in an expensive reelection fight, told us. “I don’t believe they [would] do it on any limited carveout.”
— Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen
