This is Day 28 of the government shutdown. There’s no resolution in sight to this crisis. The House has been out of town for 39 days.
News: Senate Republican leaders are souring on the idea of forcing votes this week on so-called “rifle shot” bills to pay members of the military and air traffic controllers, believing it would make it easier for Senate Democrats to continue voting against reopening the entire government.
During a closed-door GOP leadership meeting Monday evening, Senate Majority Leader John Thune expressed deep skepticism about moving forward with bills to pay those federal employees, according to two people in the room.
Despite teasing such a strategy last week, Thune argued it could be unwise to dampen some of the pressure Democrats are facing, especially after a top labor union called on Democrats to agree to reopen the government. More on that in a bit.
It’s also becoming increasingly clear that this strategy could put Thune at odds with House GOP leadership and the White House. President Donald Trump’s top aides have argued privately that these votes would only help Democrats bail themselves out of a crisis they created. The latter point was mentioned during the meeting, we’re told.
Thune and other top Senate Republicans also believe that teeing up one of these “rifle-shot” bills will inevitably lead to never-ending calls to pass others, such as SNAP funding, which would only drag out the shutdown. As we’ve noted, removing these pain points only lowers the urgency to reopen the government.
Speaking to reporters Monday night, Thune expressed similar skepticism about the strategy but indicated he’d wait to hear from rank-and-file senators at today’s GOP lunch before making a final decision.
“My view is what it has been from the very beginning, and that is to pay SNAP recipients by reopening the government. It’s not complicated,” Thune said.
GOP leaders were encouraged on Monday after the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), the largest union representing federal workers, called on Democrats to end the shutdown immediately. Separately, the air traffic controllers’ union will begin handing out anti-shutdown flyers at major airports.
We’re likely to see more of this pressure from labor unions in the coming days. Republicans think that could make Democrats fold.
“Why would we make this easier for them?” said one GOP senator who opposes the “rifle-shot” strategy.
Dems respond. Despite the press coverage, AFGE’s statement did little to move Senate Democratic leaders beyond Minority Whip Dick Durbin, who wants to discuss the issue during today’s party lunch. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer led Democrats in accusing the Trump administration of delaying the release of info on how much Obamacare premiums are increasing, in part due to the expiration of enhanced ACA tax credits. This is the issue at the heart of the shutdown.
Even Virginia Democratic Sens. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, who represent a disproportionate number of federal workers, downplayed AFGE’s statement and doubled down on health-care messaging.
“If we [voted for the CR], and Trump then fired a bunch of people next week — I know these guys very well. I know what they would say to me: ‘Why did you agree to a deal?’” Kaine said.
“I think we can still deal with health care and SNAP,” Warner added. “But I’ve known the shutdown is a real challenge. Federal employees feel like they’ve been abused and they’re also going for weeks without pay.”
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), the most endangered in-cycle Democrat, said his constituents want “both health insurance premiums to be affordable and for the federal government to be reopened.”
In the meantime, there’s bipartisan pressure on the Trump administration to fund SNAP unilaterally. Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) said she wrote to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins asking her to tap into a $5 billion “contingency” fund. Collins hasn’t heard back yet.
White House officials don’t believe they have the legal authority to tap into the fund. Speaker Mike Johnson backed the administration up on that.
Tariffs. The Senate could vote as soon as tonight on three Democratic measures to block Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Brazil, as well as his sweeping global tariffs.
Four Republican senators have already voted to terminate the Canada and global tariffs. So with full attendance, these should pass.
The priority for GOP leaders is to prevent any additional defections, which would signal growing uneasiness with Trump’s tariff regime. Vice President JD Vance will attend today’s GOP lunch meeting to urge Republicans to stay in line. That’s far from a sure bet.
“The farm industry is really suffering right now, and I’m hoping some of the farm-state senators will reconsider the issue,” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who cosponsored the anti-tariff resolutions, told us.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is someone to watch. Tillis has questioned the wisdom of Trump’s tariffs. Tillis also isn’t running for reelection, which could make it easier to vote to block the tariffs. Other Republicans, including Thune, are continuing to give Trump latitude on the issue despite their personal opposition to the tariffs.
“I just want the trade agreements concluded as quickly as possible,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), another tariff opponent. “I don’t see how undermining whatever Trump’s trying to do helps those negotiations get completed.”
