Republicans are salivating at the possibility that they’ll have the “trifecta” next year — control of the House, Senate and White House – giving them major sway over the expiring Trump tax cuts.
But as we’ve seen in the past, even when Republicans run Washington, they can’t always deliver on their promises.
That’s where Senate Minority Whip John Thune could come in. Thune is running to be the GOP leader next year. The South Dakota Republican would rely heavily on his experience in crafting the 2017 Trump tax cuts if he wins the post.
No easy task: Many of the Trump tax cuts expire next year. As we reported in the Sunday Vault, House and Senate GOP leaders have already started coordinating on a potential reconciliation package for early 2025. Speaker Mike Johnson has been talking with former President Donald Trump, too, to set realistic expectations and hear about the GOP candidate’s priorities.
As the current No. 2 Senate Republican, Thune has been involved with reconciliation prep and recently met with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise.
“We’ve got a more restrictive set of rules than the House does. So having the House understand what’s realistic… we want them, going in, to know what we think the parameters are,” Thune said.
Under reconciliation, Republicans would need to use the budget reconciliation process in order to pass a party-line tax bill. Crucially, that lowers the threshold for Senate passage to a simple majority.
But relying on GOP votes alone is risky. Even with full GOP control, Senate Republicans would have to deal with a House that’ll want to take reconciliation further than the Senate parliamentarian will allow.
On top of that, the Senate GOP Conference looks a lot different than it did seven years ago. And with what could be a narrow majority — if that — GOP leaders will need virtually every Republican to be on board.
Whoever wins the race to succeed Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will be crucial to getting a bill through the Senate’s complex reconciliation rules — a process known as the “Byrd bath” — as well as navigating an unruly bunch that now includes populists.
More from Thune:
A Senate-dictated process: Thune told us his goal with the prep work is to gather feedback from individual members and relevant committees, as well as working with the House to set expectations. Thune said Republicans are eyeing Democrats’ reconciliation push from the last Congress as a blueprint for next year.
“I think the Democrats did widen it,” Thune said. “They clearly expanded the scope of reconciliation with [the American Rescue Plan Act] and the [Inflation Reduction Act].”
Here’s Thune’s take on the big-picture goals:
The good sign for Republicans is that Thune and Johnson are singing from the same songbook — for now.
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— Laura Weiss and Andrew Desiderio
