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October 11, 2023
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Wednesday morning.
Today is a huge day for House Republicans. They’ll meet at 10 a.m. to try to nominate their candidate for speaker. As you know by now, the choices are House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan of Ohio.
We’ll note this is as discombobulated and disorganized as the House GOP conference has been for more than two decades. They’re leaderless, angry and upset over how they got here and worried about what’s next. There’s backstabbing, bad blood and mistrust. Evidence: After preaching unity for the last week, Jordan declined to say openly whether he’ll back Scalise if the Louisiana Republican wins the nomination for speaker. And that may cost him some votes.
OK, let’s go over what might happen today.
1) The Scalise-Jordan proxy vote. House Republicans will vote on a proposal being pushed by Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) — and, to a lesser extent, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) — to raise the threshold to bring a Republican candidate for speaker to the House floor for a roll-call vote. In past leadership elections, a speaker candidate needed a simple majority to advance. Roy wants to up the threshold to 217 to ensure the GOP’s nominee wins on the floor.
Scalise has been working to defeat the proposal. But Roy’s proposed rule change has more than 100 supporters — Jordan is one of them — so even Scalise’s closest allies understand he’s likely to lose.
Scalise can try to head off this by offering a vote to table or amend the proposal. But Scalise is in a box here because it’s popular inside the conference.
2) Scalise wins. Scalise’s orbit has been telling House Republicans that he has this race locked up already and has garnered the support of the majority of the conference. Maybe so, maybe not. Yet winning today — or tomorrow, or Friday — would be the culmination of the 58-year-old Scalise’s career. Whether his aides and allies admit it, Scalise has always seemed to fancy sitting in the speaker’s chair.
Will he take the conference in a decidedly different direction from Kevin McCarthy? It’s too soon to tell. Throughout this contest, Scalise has kept his cards close to the vest, declining to offer detailed plans on how he would fund the government or tackle the bevy of challenges Republicans face.
But we can say this: Scalise has watched three GOP speakers operate from his perch at the leadership table. He has a loyal staff, a K Street cabinet stocked with high-powered lobbyists and a good fundraising operation. All the attributes of a speaker, but not the gavel.
3) Jordan wins. Jordan is ahead in the public endorsement count, although that’s not the full story. Jordan would represent a dramatic change atop the House GOP. In recent days, Scalise allies have warned us repeatedly that Jordan is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. They say Jordan hasn’t changed a bit since his bomb-throwing days when he pushed John Boehner out of the speakership and then blocked McCarthy from succeeding him.
But Jordan could win. And if he does, you’ll see the House GOP taken in a completely different direction. Jordan, 59, says what he means — always. He lays out his position — no matter how hardline it is — and waits for colleagues to come his way. So if Jordan is elected, you should expect legislative showdowns — lots of them.
4) The long slog. Today could be a long day. How long depends on whether the Roy proposal passes.
First, the process of taking up the Roy proposal could take a while. If it’s adopted, this will drive what happens afterward.
Then you get into the actual election between the Scalise and Jordan. This is a majority vote, with the winner moving forward. If the Roy proposal isn’t adopted, the GOP candidate goes to the floor to see if he can get enough votes to become speaker. This is likely to happen on Thursday.
However — and this is key — if the Roy proposal is adopted, the speaker candidate will then be required to lock up 217 votes (out of a possible 221 Republicans) before advancing to the floor. This is being referred to as a “validation” vote.
The first round is by secret ballot. If 217 isn’t reached then, the conference moves into questioning the candidate, and then another secret ballot is held. If he still doesn’t have 217, there’s more questioning, followed by an open roll-call vote. This means every Republican has to declare how they’ll vote. If the speaker nominee is still not at 217, there’s more questioning and then yet another roll-call vote. If the speaker nominee doesn’t have at least 185 votes at this point, the process starts all over again.
According to the Roy proposal, members can nominate other candidates after the third round of voting. So if Scalise or Jordan don’t nail down 217 votes by then, some lawmakers may get itchy and nominate someone new. Think Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry or Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.).
5) Will it really matter? Donald Trump is likely to be the GOP presidential nominee barring some dramatic reversal in the polls or in the courts. Every congressional race in 2024 will be about Trump vs. Joe Biden. There won’t be any escaping it. Who the speaker is and how Congress handles huge issues of war and peace, government funding and shutdowns, are important, of course. But everything will be viewed through the filter of Biden vs. Trump, a rematch of the never-ending 2020 election.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
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SPEAKER RACE
McCarthy opposition mum on speaker race
The eight House Republicans who helped oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy last week have been exceptionally quiet on who they’re eyeing as his successor.
With the exception of Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), the conservative firebrands have refused to publicly back either Majority Leader Steve Scalise or Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who are both vying for the gavel. That’s notable, especially given the fact that they’re the reason the House is without a speaker in the first place.
“You’re not getting anything out of me as far as who I’m supporting,” Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) told us. “I don’t know that would help anybody.”
Rosendale, along with Reps. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), Bob Good (R-Va.), Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), Ken Buck (R-Colo.), Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), have stayed silent on who they want as the next speaker. Mace endorsed Jordan this week.
Of course, the GOP hardliners led the push to oust McCarthy, claiming he broke unspecified promises he made to conservatives back in January.
The detractors also blamed McCarthy for what they saw as a botched deal with the White House on the debt limit and federal spending levels. And they were incensed by the last-minute short-term funding bill McCarthy passed with Democratic support to avert a government shutdown just under two weeks ago.
Burchett said he felt Tuesday’s candidate forum was “very positive,” but was still undecided on who to support.
“I’ll pray on it,” Burchett told us.
Gaetz, who filed the motion to oust McCarthy last week, has praised Scalise and Jordan as “great” options. But the Florida Republican told us he was “undecided” going into the candidate forum. Gaetz didn’t answer our questions afterward either.
Matthew Tragesser, Biggs’ spokesperson, told us the Arizona Republican is “not publicly endorsing anyone.”
We’ve approached Crane several times this week, as well. Crane told us repeatedly that he’s keeping his thoughts to himself on the race. Crane’s office did not respond to our request for comment.
Buck told Fox News he was “not thrilled” with Scalise or Jordan and believes other candidates could step forward if neither of them pulls enough support.
Last week, however, Buck told us he had an idea of who he was supporting but wasn’t planning to publicly share who that was. OK then!
— Mica Soellner
WASHINGTON X THE WORLD
House to get classified Israel briefing as Biden previews new aid request
Top Biden administration officials will brief House members on the war in Israel at 8:30 a.m., the first such gathering for all lawmakers in a classified setting since Hamas launched a series of terrorist attacks against Israel this past weekend.
We expect lawmakers to learn more about Israel’s plans for striking back against Hamas in the coming days and what the United States will do to help. On Sunday, administration officials told senators they should prepare their constituents for the likelihood of a long and protracted conflict — one that will require additional U.S. assistance at some point.
President Joe Biden on Tuesday announced that he’ll soon ask Congress for new funding and authorities to assist Israel and other U.S. allies under attack, such as Ukraine. We reported earlier Tuesday about a potential effort to link Israel aid with a Ukraine package, and how that could be a heavy lift on the Hill.
It’s unclear what exactly would be included in an Israel-focused proposal, but administration officials told senators already that it would center on precision-guided missiles as well as a replenishment of the Iron Dome missile defense system — a key lifeline for Israel.
House members will almost certainly question the administration about the still unknown number of Americans who have been taken hostage by Hamas, as well as those who remain unaccounted for. Some lawmakers have suggested that Biden should send U.S. special operations forces into Gaza to rescue the American hostages.
At least 14 Americans were killed in the attacks and 20 Americans are still unaccounted for, with the numbers expected to rise. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed, with thousands more injured. More than 150 Israelis have been abducted as well.
The administration’s briefers will be Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, acting Pentagon policy chief Sasha Baker and senior intelligence official Morgan Muir, according to an invite we obtained.
Lawmakers have indicated they’re also interested in learning more about how the Israeli government was seemingly caught off guard by the assault, which appeared to be meticulously planned by Hamas.
Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner (D-Va.) told us on Tuesday that there will be plenty of time for an after-action review, but the immediate focus should be on “rooting out Hamas leadership and bringing them to justice.”
Some Republicans are calling on the administration to immediately freeze the $6 billion in funding that the Iranian government recently gained access to as part of a prisoner swap, citing Tehran’s support — both material and otherwise — for Hamas and its affiliates. The Biden administration has maintained that this funding isn’t for Iran’s government but rather for the humanitarian needs of its people.
But several Democrats have broken with the president on this issue. Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who’s facing a difficult reelection fight, issued a statement Tuesday evening calling for the assets to be re-frozen while the United States determines Iran’s level of involvement in the Hamas terror attacks.
Here’s Tester:
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), who’s also in-cycle, similarly called for the money to be frozen, citing Iran’s backing of Hamas.
National security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Tuesday that the United States doesn’t yet have “specific information that ties Iran” to the Hamas attacks but added that the administration is “looking to acquire further intelligence” about that.
Meanwhile, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.) and Donald Norcross (D-N.J.) were in Israel on a congressional delegation Tuesday.
— Andrew Desiderio
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INDICTMENT WATCH
Santos’ N.Y. GOP colleagues talk expulsion
New York House Republicans reiterated their calls for Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) to resign following a revised federal criminal indictment on Tuesday evening that includes even more allegations against the freshman lawmaker. And some of Santos’ colleagues are also considering demanding the New York Republican be expelled from Congress.
“He’s a terrible human being,” Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) said of Santos. “He does not deserve to be in the House of Representatives. He deserves to be in a federal prison. And I think the issue of expulsion is going to be something that a lot of my colleagues are going to talk about.”
New York GOP Reps. Marc Molinaro, Mike Lawler and Anthony D’Esposito also told reporters they’re still calling on Santos to resign.
Prosecutors in New York unsealed a new, 23-count superseding indictment against Santos on Tuesday. The indictment alleges Santos stole the identities of his campaign donors and charged thousands of dollars to their credit cards.
Leaving the closed-door House GOP speaker forum Tuesday evening, Santos told reporters he had no comment on the indictment and hadn’t checked his phone to receive an update.
Of course, many of Santos’ GOP colleagues had first called on the freshman to resign earlier this year when Santos was initially indicted on fraud charges.
But those Republicans didn’t back a resolution by House Democrats seeking to expel Santos in May. Instead, Republicans voted to refer the resolution to the House Ethics Committee.
The Ethics panel is still conducting its investigation into Santos’ alleged misdeeds. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy has said he would wait for the probe to conclude before taking action.
The political reality here is obviously complicated. Republicans currently only have a four-seat majority. GOP leaders have previously resisted calls to boot Santos and give Democrats a real chance at winning back the seat this Congress.
In related news, former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi announced earlier Tuesday he plans to challenge Santos in 2024. Suozzi first has to get through a crowded Democratic primary.
— Max Cohen and Heather Caygle
COCKTAILS AND CONVERSATIONS
Last night, we hosted senior Capitol Hill staffers, K Street leaders and others for a conversation about The Canvass, our monthly survey.
The Canvass, conducted in partnership with independent polling firm LSG, provides anonymous insights each month from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues facing Washington.
Thank you as always to Elizabeth Wise and Laura Pinsky of the Sazerac House for hosting us.
Raising a glass: Representatives from Amazon, ROKK Solutions, Black Women’s Congressional Alliance, AARP, senior congressional staffers and many more.
Even if you weren’t able to come in person, we’d still love it if you could join The Canvass community. We’d like to include your responses in our next survey. Sign up here if you work on K Street. And click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.
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Presented by Wells Fargo
At Wells Fargo, we cover more rural markets than many large banks, and nearly 30% of our branches are in low- or moderate-income census tracts. What we say, we do. See how.