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IN THIS EDITION

Thune on $1.5T in spending cuts: We’ll see!

Rand rides again as GOP gadfly

Craig inches closer to Senate launch

Cornyn brings in $2.5m in Q1

THE TOP

Thune on $1.5T in spending cuts: We’ll see!

Happy Friday morning.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s appearance at a press conference with Speaker Mike Johnson Thursday was intended to calm fears among House conservatives that the Senate would eventually roll them on spending cuts.

It helped do the trick. House Republicans ended up narrowly approving the compromise budget resolution the Senate passed five days earlier. Only two House Republicans voted no. A dozen others had been threatening to oppose the resolution.

Standing beside Johnson, Thune was very careful. The South Dakota Republican said the Senate would be “as aggressive as possible” on spending cuts and maintained that the two chambers are aligned. But he didn’t commit to a specific number.

Thune’s comments didn’t weaken the Senate’s negotiating position. Nor did he guarantee that House Republicans wouldn’t get jammed with a final package that falls short of the $1.5 trillion in spending cuts they’re demanding.

Thune and Senate Republicans emerged from this latest saga with their leverage over the House mostly intact. That’s important for Thune as Hill Republicans enter the most complicated phase of the reconciliation process.

In an interview after the House passed the budget resolution, Thune doubled down.

“We’ll see what’s achievable when it comes to [spending cuts],” Thune told us. “We obviously have people in all different camps on how much we do in terms of savings. But in the end, it’s 51 and 218. That’s the math.”

It’s a delicate balancing act for Thune. He was reflecting the will of his own conference, which includes a strong contingent of senators drawing the line on Medicaid cuts. Leading up to the House’s vote Thursday morning, Thune even flashed some rare public frustration with House Republicans.

“At some point, these guys just have to take yes for an answer,” Thune told us. “We’re aligned. We’re completely aligned with the House.”

Thune reasserted his leverage by noting — again — that the Senate is subject to stricter rules about what can be done under the filibuster-proof reconciliation process, particularly when it comes to spending cuts.

“Because the House isn’t subject to the Byrd Rule and the Senate is, as we think through how we do this and what we can achieve, we’re gonna have to be in very close coordination [and] consultation with the House,” Thune said.

Thune also has a new faction to deal with in his conference. GOP Sens. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Thom Tillis (N.C.), John Curtis (Utah) and Jerry Moran (Kan.) sent Thune a letter this week warning against full repeal of clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act. This position is in direct conflict with Rep. Chip Roy’s (R-Texas) demand that Congress “fully repeal the damaging ‘green scam’ subsidies” in the law.

What the House markup schedule will look like. House Republican leaders initially wanted their committees to mark up pieces of the reconciliation package before the Senate did.

But now House Republicans are reworking their strategy. The House GOP leadership and committee chairs are currently discussing dates for each panel, working to ensure markups don’t overlap.

The GOP leadership’s original plan for the House Ways and Means Committee — which is responsible for the mammoth task of writing Republicans’ multi-trillion dollar tax-cut bill — was to have a markup during the week of May 5.

But Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) was noncommittal on his markup timeline at a fundraiser Thursday. Ways and Means is expected to work on a different timeline now, largely due to the differences between the House and Senate instructions.

The GOP leadership is encouraging House committees to work closely with their Senate counterparts, which is going to take some juggling.

Raising the debt limit is another key issue that will drive this timeline. House and Senate Republicans have different reconciliation instructions for increasing the nation’s borrowing authority. While the Treasury Department hasn’t given an official “X date” yet, CBO says it could fall sometime in August or September. CBO, however, warned that the deadline could move up to late May or June if tax revenue falls short of projections.

More news: Smith and a group of lawmakers are going on a codel over the House recess that includes a visit to the notorious El Salvador prison, CECOT, where the Trump administration has sent hundreds of migrants – including at least one wrongfully so. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem also visited the prison in late March.

Caine confirmed: In a middle-of-the-night series of votes, the Senate confirmed Air Force Gen. Dan “Razin” Caine as the new chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The confirmation vote was 60-25, with 15 Democrats crossing the aisle to back Caine, who President Donald Trump nominated in March.

Caine replaces Gen. C.Q. Brown in the Joint Chiefs role. Trump fired Brown in February in a controversial move that angered Democrats.

The Senate first reinstated and promoted Caine to major general before confirming him. Caine had retired in January.

Following the Caine vote, the Senate left town for a two-week recess. Senators will next vote on April 28.

— Andrew Desiderio, Laura Weiss, Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

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THE SENATE

Rand rides again as GOP gadfly

Among the handful of congressional Republicans willing to speak out against President Donald Trump, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) stands out.

Unlike the others, Paul isn’t a moderate. His criticisms of Trump aren’t rooted in an inherent skepticism of the president. Paul isn’t swayed by pressure from party leaders or or even Trump himself. And he’s largely immune from the political backlash that befalls Republicans who buck Trump.

During the first three months of Trump’s presidency, more than perhaps any point in Paul’s 14-year Senate career, the factors that make the Kentucky Republican so unique are converging.

Paul has been the most prominent GOP critic of Trump’s tariff regime, even leading a successful effort in the Senate to overturn Trump’s previous tariffs. The measure isn’t going anywhere in the House. That’s because, as Paul put it, his party is caving under pressure from Trump.

“I’m actually shocked there’s not more people in my caucus [speaking out],” Paul told us. “Some of them have in the past talked about emergencies and the need to reform emergencies. I don’t understand why they would allow the government to be ruled by emergency.”

It’s not just tariffs and executive power. Paul is a hard “no” on reconciliation as long as it includes an increase of the nation’s debt limit, a chief Trump ask. His opposition reduces Senate GOP leaders’ already slim margin.

Paul also voted against two of Trump’s Cabinet nominees — Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer — and wasn’t quiet about it. Even on DOGE’s spending cuts, Paul is raising alarm about the legality of such moves without congressional approval.

Unmoved: Paul’s stubbornness is a defining trait — one that has made him an outcast, not just within the GOP Conference but in the Senate as a whole. So don’t expect Paul to back down, especially when it comes to tariffs.

“I just do what I think is right as far as the wellbeing of the country, the wellbeing of people’s retirement accounts,” Paul said. “And I’ll continue to do that.”

Paul’s fellow Republicans often laud him for his consistency, especially on tariffs. But they’re not afraid to tell reporters what they really think of Paul’s posture.

“He’s a total free-trader. He loves a global economy,” said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), whose populist bona fides are often in conflict with Paul’s views. “Any time you start talking about reindustrialization or blue-collar jobs, his eyes just glaze over. Believe me, he’s only said in public one-one thousandth of what’s said to us.”

Despite Trump’s 90-day pause on his most recent across-the-board tariffs (except China), Paul still wants to force a vote on overturning the emergency declaration Trump triggered to impose them.

It’s another example of how pressure campaigns — including from Trump on Truth Social — don’t work on Paul.

“We all worry about our electoral [standing], but he’s just a person that, once he makes up his mind, he doesn’t go backwards,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Paul’s partner on the successful effort to overturn Trump’s earlier tariffs.

— Andrew Desiderio

SENATE WATCH

Craig inches closer to Senate launch

As Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) prepares to embark on a town hall tour across Minnesota’s GOP turf, the House Democrat told us she is just weeks away from announcing whether she’ll run for the state’s open Senate seat.

Judging by her political activity and recent statements, Craig sure sounds like a Senate candidate in the making. If so, Craig would become a top contender in the field jockeying to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.).

Over the next two weeks, Craig will look to expand her statewide presence in Minnesota by slamming President Donald Trump’s economic record in districts where she claims Republican incumbents have ignored their voters.

“I work with Brad Finstad, Tom Emmer, Michelle Fischbach and Pete Stauber when I can on specific policy issues that are right for Minnesota, but it’s chicken shit not to show up and do a town hall to your constituents,” Craig told us in an interview.

Craig will begin with her own town hall in Minnesota’s 2nd District before holding events in the districts represented by her four GOP delegation members.

The Minnesota Democrat is already touting her bipartisan bonafides – a move that could boost her statewide appeal. Craig broke with President Joe Biden on several votes while he was president and also had Trump sign bills she led during his first term. Craig was also the first swing district Democrat who called on Biden to step aside last cycle over concerns about his age.

“My entire philosophy as a member of Congress has been to support an administration when I believe they’re right for the people of Minnesota,” Craig said.

The town hall tour is the latest step in Craig’s rapidly ascendant political career. Craig flipped a Republican-held seat in the 2018 midterms and has consistently won tough elections in her battleground district.

Craig was elected the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee last year — an impressive feat in a House Democratic Caucus leadership structure dominated by senior members.

Primary dynamics: If Craig enters the Democratic primary, her top opponent will be Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who has already won the endorsements of former Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) and Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison.

Flanagan has held a dozen “kitchen table conversations” — the majority in GOP districts — to hear directly from voters across the state in the months since announcing her candidacy. By Monday, Flanagan will have held events in all eight of Minnesota’s congressional districts.

An early poll of the race found Flanagan outpacing Craig by a substantial margin. But Flanagan’s name ID advantage could evaporate if Craig — a formidable fundraiser — begins to spend heavily on TV ads.

— Mica Soellner and Max Cohen

THE MONEY GAME

Cornyn brings in $2.5m in Q1

News: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) raised nearly $2.5 million in the first quarter of 2025, bringing his total cash on hand to $5.7 million.

The news comes as Cornyn, who has long been a powerhouse fundraiser for Senate Republicans, is facing what is certain to be an expensive primary campaign against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton this week.

Paxton announced his campaign against Cornyn earlier this week. Paxton told us last month that he’d need to raise at least $20 million to knock off Cornyn, who has the backing of the NRSC, the Senate Leadership Fund and Senate GOP leadership.

Running a campaign in the sprawling Lone Star State is notoriously pricey. So each candidate will need every dollar they can get.

Two Texas House Republicans — Reps. Lance Gooden and Troy Nehls — have already endorsed Paxton, while Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is staying neutral in the race.

— Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

First in Punchbowl News: Liberal group Unrig Our Economy is running two new ads blasting Reps. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.) and Tom Kean (R-N.J.) for supporting the GOP budget resolution.

The ads accuse the vulnerable House Republicans of supporting tax breaks for the “ultra-wealthy” while things get more expensive for everyday residents.

— Max Cohen

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