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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Thursday morning.
We’re going to dig in this morning to House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan’s (R-Ohio) bid for speaker. We scooped his entrance into the race yesterday on our text platform and later on X, formerly known as Twitter.
To be clear, we’re skeptical that either Jordan or his main rival, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, can garner the 218 votes necessary to become speaker. That doesn’t mean they won’t; it just means it’ll be very difficult. We also think that the speaker election could stretch beyond next Wednesday’s current deadline.
Let’s start with this: We’ve all covered the 59-year-old Jordan for a long time, dating back to his days as former Speaker John Boehner’s chief tormentor. Jake spent time with him at home in Urbana, Ohio, for “The Hill to Die On.”
Jordan is a walking contradiction. He’s an old-school populist who’s spent decades in government. He went to law school but never took the bar exam. He comes across as straightforward and direct, yet he’s also an extremely sophisticated pol.
Jordan’s theory of governance is simple: he hates losing and thinks Republicans have been feckless for decades, dating back to 2006 and the Bush era, when he first won a House seat. Jordan’s motto — and the title of his book — is “Do What You Said You Would Do.” In other words, don’t campaign in poetry and govern in prose.
Most importantly, Jordan’s role has evolved from being an outsider to that of a very prominent insider. He went from blocking Kevin McCarthy getting the speaker’s gavel to being his most important ally.
It’s also worth noting that as chair of both the Judiciary Committee and Weaponization subcommittee, Jordan already controls millions of dollars in panel budgets while having lots of staff and subpoena power. Jordan is the most powerful House chair in decades, mainly because McCarthy needed his support.
Strengths: Say what you want about Jordan, but he has a relentless focus on the message du jour — similar to Scalise. For decades, the House Republican Conference has taken to politicians who are good on TV. Jordan is one of those members, at least to the right. And he’s popular with his GOP colleagues.
On policy, Jordan is in line with the party base and the majority of the House Republican Conference. It went unnoticed by many, but Jordan voted recently against both the $300 million in new aid for Ukraine and the continuing resolution. Scalise voted for both.
Yet when it mattered to the leadership — meaning McCarthy — Jordan has been there. H.R. 2, the House GOP’s border security bill, originated largely out of Jordan’s committee. He’s taking the lead on FISA reauthorization, including the fight over Section 702. Jordan helped shape this year’s Commerce-Justice-Science spending bill. And Jordan had a big role in the REINS Act.
Jordan has a huge national profile due to his attacks on President Joe Biden and support for former President Donald Trump. The Ohio Republican raised nearly $2.9 million through June 30 this year, and had $7.9 million in cash on hand. Most of this is through direct mail or online appeals. Two-thirds of the donations to Jordan are unitemized contributions of $200 or less. Yes, the overall total is peanuts compared to McCarthy. But Jordan knows what’s going on with the GOP base, and with that comes small-dollar contributions.
Weaknesses: We can’t tell you how many moderates say they simply can’t vote for Jordan. He’s easily demonizable and often just dishes out pro-Trump talking points. While that may play back home in red Ohio, it doesn’t fly in swing districts.
Jordan’s biggest strength with the right is his biggest weakness when it comes to governing. He’s displayed no willingness nor interest in compromise. But when you’re speaker in a divided government, you have to show some bend. Also, Jordan has no real relationships with Democrats.
Remember — and we do because we chronicled it in our book — Jordan was one of the architects of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. For 35 days in 2018-2019, Trump shut down part of the government in a quixotic attempt to get his border wall approved. Jordan urged this course of action. Of course, it wasn’t successful and Trump eventually caved, having won nothing from Democrats.
Then there’s the Ohio State University sex scandal. Jordan, a national champion wrestler, was an assistant coach at OSU from 1987 to 1995. An OSU doctor had been molesting student athletes for decades, and Jordan was allegedly told about some of these incidents. Jordan has adamantly denied any knowledge of the abuse.
Opportunities: Here’s the biggest upside to Jordan — he’s a break from the status quo. Jordan has zero leadership baggage. We’re in a period when anything related to the current GOP leadership structure is considered toxic by much of the right. Jordan represents a clean break from that.
There are some in the House Freedom Caucus who don’t trust Jordan. That’s because the HFC has changed so much since Jordan, Mark Meadows, Mick Mulvaney and Ron DeSantis founded it back in 2015. Most people in the House understand it’s grown a bit too unwieldy, although Jordan can still speak the HFC’s language.
Threats: Jordan, as we noted, has a massive staff operation. But he’s never run a real leadership race before. Scalise’s team could end up swamping Jordan. The third floor — where Scalise works — has a lot of skill and a lot of leadership know-how. Jordan doesn’t.
One other dynamic: Scalise has chits. Lots of them. Maybe not as many as McCarthy — but lots. Scalise will be able to call them in, and Jordan won’t.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
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WASHINGTON X THE WORLD
Ukraine aid faces new hurdles amid House GOP shake-up
If passing a new aid package for Ukraine was hard with Kevin McCarthy running the House, it’s about to get even more difficult.
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), one of two declared candidates for speaker following McCarthy’s stunning ouster, told reporters he wouldn’t bring a Ukraine funding bill to the floor, citing the need to address the U.S.-Mexico border crisis among other domestic priorities. And Jordan told Texas Republicans behind closed doors that he’d want the Ukraine cost offset — going further in that direction than McCarthy ever did.
Jordan’s comments raise the specter of an intense clash with the Senate, where Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are promising to push through a major aid package for Kyiv. There’s still overwhelming bipartisan support for Ukraine in the Senate, but in the House, GOP backing is fast eroding.
“Whoever the speaker is, if they don’t want to put a Ukraine bill on the floor, I think we have to send them something that the vast majority of members want,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) told us. “And if he or she won’t put something like that on the floor… we have to have a major, thorough discussion about it that persuades both members and the public.”
Multiple Republican senators who support Ukraine aid told us that any package would need to include border-security money and potentially policy changes in order to sell it to the House. Those same senators said they’re sensitive to the criticism from the right that the GOP cares more about foreign borders than our own.
It all points to a bid by Republicans in both chambers to use Ukraine as leverage in the border policy dispute. A group of GOP senators tried to craft a border amendment to the stopgap funding bill. In the end, they couldn’t find a sweet spot on funding and policies that could satisfy conservatives.
“That’s the challenge — how do you write, within the appropriations process, items to fix the southern border?” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), who supports Ukraine aid.
Senate appropriators told us after a classified briefing Wednesday that a Ukraine package is much more urgent than they previously thought.
For one, McCarthy had vowed to re-up President Joe Biden’s authority to transfer weapons from U.S. stockpiles to Ukraine as soon as this week after it was left out of the stopgap funding bill. It will be up to the next speaker to make the same commitment — or not.
Several senators said Ukraine’s lifeline will become increasingly dire without new authorities and funding over the next month. Senators were told during the briefing that funding isn’t just needed for Ukraine but to backfill the United States’ own weapons stockpiles.
Yet with McCarthy gone and House Republicans mired in an election to replace him, it could be weeks before Congress sends anything to Biden’s desk — especially on Ukraine.
“It’s hard for us to imagine how democracy allows a minority position to ultimately become U.S. policy,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said. “If the decision in the House is to elect a speaker who will fight against Ukraine funding, that’s a decision that will be written about in the history books.”
Democrats were open to the idea of including border funding in a Ukraine-focused bill, especially since the Biden administration already requested some more money in that area during August.
But Democrats are also wary of an effort by Republicans to use the appropriations process to enact policy changes that would be non-starters for their colleagues.
“The issue about funding for border security, that’s not an issue,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told us. “Where there would be more of a problem is if it’s more than funding and it’s all kind of a dramatic rewriting of the immigration laws.”
— Andrew Desiderio
PRIMARY WATCH
Dean Phillips draws potential primary challenger
First, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) stepped down from House Democratic leadership over his views on President Joe Biden’s reelection bid. Now, Phillips may face a primary challenger thanks to his 2024 ambitions.
Ron Harris, a Democratic Party official, told us he’s been making calls and putting a team together for a possible House run. Harris is a Democratic National Committee Executive Committee member and DNC’s Midwestern Caucus chair.
Harris is eyeing an open seat if Phillips runs for president. But Harris also didn’t rule out running against Phillips if the three-term lawmaker seeks reelection in the House.
“My main focus is making sure that this district stays in Democratic hands,” Harris told us in an interview. “Dean is making a lot of noise about potentially running for president and that’s kind of where we’re at today. That’s the foundation of which I’m exploring this run.”
Phillips, of course, has floated a longshot challenge to Biden, citing concerns over the president’s age. Phillips is mostly freelancing here as other congressional Democrats aren’t going to criticize Biden, no matter what they think privately.
“Age is the main issue in this election, because we have two men who are older than Bill Clinton, who was president when I was in college,” Phillips told Vanity Fair.
During next year’s election, Biden will be 81. Former President Donald Trump, who is the leading GOP candidate, will be 78.
In a statement, Phillips said he welcomed any challengers to the race.
“I welcome and encourage competition both in the district I represent and in races across the nation. Everyone’s invited!” Phillips said.
Phillips served as the co-chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee — House Democrats’ messaging arm — before stepping down over the weekend.
— Mica Soellner
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THE CAMPAIGN
News: Democratic group, Unrig Our Economy, is launching a $500,000 digital ad campaign taking aim at a group of vulnerable House Republicans over their support for a conservative CR put on the House floor last week.
The ads target GOP Reps. Brandon Williams (N.Y.), Monica De La Cruz (Texas), Jen Kiggans (Va.), Don Bacon (Neb.) and John Duarte (Calif.) for pushing for “harmful cuts for working Americans.”
There’s one issue with the ads — the narrator accuses the Republicans of “threatening to shut down the country unless they get their way.” All of the members who are featured ended up voting for the stopgap funding bill that passed Congress on Saturday, thereby avoiding a shutdown for now.
GOP retirement watch: We got a first look at the House Majority PAC’s initial list of GOP incumbents that the Democratic group is placing on retirement watch. It’s an ambitious list, to be sure, featuring a number of battle-tested vulnerable Republican moderates who’ve raised bucket loads of cash this year.
But there are also several aging Republicans — and those who may be the victim of redistricting — on the list. Check it out here.
One member — Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) — has already announced she won’t be running for reelection in 2024.
We reached out to HMP’s Republican counterpart, the Congressional Leadership Fund. They weren’t too impressed. “LOL,” CLF Communications Director Courtney Parella said in a statement.
Money, money: Duty First PAC, which is supporting Republican Sam Brown for Senate in Nevada, raised $2 million — all from billionaire David Duffield, the founder of Workday.
— Max Cohen
THE CAMPAIGN
Donald Trump is running a new ad in Iowa saying that he will destroy Mexican cartels like he “did ISIS.” The spot is focused on President Joe Biden’s handling of the border — a major issue for congressional Republicans.
— Jake Sherman
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MOMENTS
Vice President Kamala Harris will speak at the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D-Calif.) memorial ceremony in San Francisco. Lots of senators will attend the memorial service.
10 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.
Noon: Biden will get briefed on the situation in Ukraine.
1 p.m.: Karine Jean-Pierre will brief.
CLIP FILE
NYT
→ | “From a Capitol Hill Basement, Bannon Stokes the Republican Party Meltdown,” by Annie Karni |
Bloomberg
→ | “Long Bonds’ Historic 46% Meltdown Rivals Burst of Dot-Com Bubble,” by Ye Xie |
WSJ
→ | “Rising Interest Rates Mean Deficits Finally Matter,” by Greg Ip |
→ | “Kaiser Permanente Union Workers Strike, Mounting Largest U.S. Healthcare Walkout on Record,” by Melanie Evans |
AP
→ | “Most 2024 GOP presidential candidates urge Republicans to stop the chaos after McCarthy’s ouster,” by Michelle L. Price in New York |
Politico
→ | “With McCarthy out, California Republicans lost a crucial lifeline,” by Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner in Los Angeles |
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
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