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October 7, 2022
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THE TOP
Happy Friday morning. There are 32 days until Election Day.
Throughout October, the House’s top two leaders – Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy – are jetting around the country as part of the battle for control of the chamber. Like we did Thursday, we’re going to use this AM edition to take stock of where the two leaders are, politically and otherwise.
Let’s start with Pelosi: For an 82-year-old who’s been in Congress for 35 years, Pelosi is keeping a breakneck schedule. Consider this:
| → | Pelosi has been in 16 cities during the last two weeks alone. |
| → | The speaker is hosting First Lady Jill Biden today in San Francisco for the DCCC’s Women’s Lunch and Issues Conference. |
| → | Next week, Pelosi will have President Joe Biden in Los Angeles for a DCCC fundraiser. |
| → | There are other Democrats out there raising big money for the DCCC and candidates as well. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer can go to any swing district in the country. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) – a big draw on the campaign trail – and Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the DCCC, were on a three-city trip to Europe last week collecting checks from Democrats living abroad. Pelosi, of course, has raised more than $1 billion since coming into leadership in 2002. |
The view from Pelosi allies is this – If Biden didn’t have sub-par approval ratings, this would be viewed as the most historic Congress in American history. Even with Biden’s relative weakness, there’s truth to that. The $740 billion Inflation Reduction Act passed – with Pelosi’s signature health care items intact. The $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package and the Democrats-only $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan are law. The first gun control bill in nearly three decades was enacted. Congress and the White House have joined together to funnel tens of billions of dollars in military and economic aid to Ukraine.
This is probably a more productive Congress than the 111th, during which Pelosi guided Obamacare through the chamber. And this time, it was a House and Senate virtually split down the middle between the two parties.
Pelosi has been predicting for weeks that Democrats will hold the House and even win seats. It seems to be a pie-in-the-sky prognostication, but her allies point to recent data that lends some credence to that argument. No. 1: Biden’s approval ratings are ticking up. No. 2: Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter just moved seven seats in Democrats’ direction. Of course, all Republicans need to do is net six seats to win the majority.
Should Democrats lose the House, Pelosi will have the monumental task of navigating a lame-duck session with the Democratic majority coming to an end.
And then there’s this perennial question: What will Pelosi do? Will she stay or will she go? (Cue the wincing from Pelosi’s office.) The honest answer is we can’t see her staying. But of course, people have been saying that since 2010. Large-scale losses will probably make it very difficult for her to stay. Will she endorse a successor? Who knows. If Democrats win, all bets are off.
Now onto Kevin McCarthy: First let’s address where McCarthy has been, where he’s going and what to watch from him in the next few months.
McCarthy is almost obsessively focused on raising money right now. And he’s doing a helluva good job on this front. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC endorsed by GOP leadership, has raised $220 million. The American Action Network – the related non-profit – has raised another $75 million. That’s far outstripping what their Democratic counterparts have taken in.
McCarthy has been to 32 states during the last two months, including five districts in New York this week alone. After returning to California this weekend, McCarthy will be on the road again next week with stops in Montana and other Western states.
Like Pelosi, the 57-year-old McCarthy’s schedule is a grind. But one of the keys to understanding McCarthy is that he really loves this stuff. He’s able to spend time with his members and candidates, getting to know them, their families and their districts. Democrats will take shots over this – McCarthy’s strength is as a campaign strategist, not as a policy expert or floor leader. And they detest his continued ties to former President Donald Trump. Yet you can’t be speaker if you don’t first win a majority, and McCarthy is on the verge of doing that now.
Another point of tension for McCarthy beyond simply winning the majority is how many seats Republicans pick up. Anything more than a 10-seat majority – meaning at least a 15-seat pickup in the midterms – will give McCarthy a relatively straightforward path to the speaker’s chair. Anything less could mean a struggle with conservatives to nail down 218 votes.
One bright spot that McCarthy allies see is that the right flank of his conference is mostly quiet at this point. There’s been some chatter about the rules package from the House Freedom Caucus, but GOP leaders aren’t overly concerned. McCarthy has neutralized or won over any high-profile rivals in the conference. Not a single influential lawmaker on the right – someone who can really move votes – is advocating for an alternative to McCarthy.
What McCarthy needs to win the speakership and what he needs to govern are two different things. The prevailing wisdom among supporters of the California Republican is he needs a 15 to 20 seat cushion to be able to comfortably manage the chamber.
Of immediate concern to McCarthy and the rest of House Republican leadership:
| → | The race for GOP whip between Reps. Jim Banks (Ind.), Drew Ferguson (Ga.) and Tom Emmer (Minn.). This will be a vibrant battle within the Republican ranks. We don’t expect McCarthy to take a side here. He’ll want a whip who can win on his own. |
| → | The lame-duck session. If Republicans win the House, McCarthy will spend his time organizing his conference and locking down his members for the Jan. 3 speaker vote. McCarthy won’t want his fingerprints on an omnibus year-long spending package, but he’ll be very relieved if it happens. McCarthy doesn’t want a government shutdown fight early in his speakership as some on the right have demanded. All that would do is help Biden and the Democrats. |
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
WAR IN UKRAINE
Biden warns of ‘Armageddon’ following Putin threat
President Joe Biden warned Thursday night that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine could lead to “Armageddon.”
Biden’s stunning comments were far more dire than those from other top U.S. officials, who have so far sought to downplay the threat of a wider war.
“For the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis, we have a direct threat of the use [of a] nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they are going,” Biden warned during a Senate Democratic fundraiser in New York, according to the White House pool report.
“I don’t think there’s any such thing as the ability to easily [use] a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon,” Biden added.
Biden’s remarks signaled that the White House remains uncertain on just how far Putin will go in continuing Russia’s disastrous invasion of Ukraine. The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis was the closest the United States and the Soviet Union came to a nuclear exchange during the Cold War.
Recent Ukrainian counter-offensives have succeeded in pushing Russian forces back toward the border. With his government facing unrest back home over these battlefield reverses, Putin mobilized hundreds of thousands of additional troops while also annexing four Ukrainian regions bordering Russia. Putin then warned the United States and its Western allies that “When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people.”
Biden said U.S. and Western leaders aren’t sure about Putin’s future moves in the face of a growing catastrophe in Ukraine:
More Biden:
U.S. officials have warned Russia that use of weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine would result in “catastrophic consequences” for Putin’s government.
Check out National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan talking about this on CBS’ “Face The Nation” on Sunday.
We’ll have to see how White House and Pentagon officials respond to Biden’s comments today. WIll they try to walk them back, as they have when Biden has suggested a U.S. military response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? Were they more for Ukrainian and European leaders, a warning about the dangers of this new phase of in the nearly eight-month old war? Was he sending a message to Putin about U.S. resolve? We’ll also be sounding out the response on Capitol Hill to these remarks.
– John Bresnahan
SHIOWDOWN
Kelly, Masters clash over abortion, inflation, the border and 2020
Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and GOP challenger Blake Masters clashed Thursday night in the only face-to-face meeting of the critical Arizona Senate race.
Masters – a 36-year-old venture capitalist endorsed by former President Donald Trump and financially backed by billionaire Peter Thiel – is trailing in the polls, and he hit Kelly early and often in this highly anticipated debate.
Masters painted Kelly as a reliable “50th vote” for President Joe Biden. He hammered Kelly over problems at the border and the soaring prices Arizonans have suffered through while facing the worst inflation in the nation.
“You deserve so much better than what we have,” Masters said, adding that Democrats “have turned over the border to Mexican drug cartels.”
Masters’ attacks on the issue stung Kelly, who criticized Biden and Democrats for failing to understand the scale of problems at the border or potential solutions. Kelly also said he’d fought to add more than $1 billion in additional border funding.
“Send me to the U.S. Senate if you think that you and your family deserve better, so that we can go in the right direction,” Masters told the crowd.
Kelly, a 58-year-old former Navy fighter pilot and astronaut who is seeking a full six-year Senate term, pushed back at Masters over abortion, the 2020 election and Social Security. Kelly was able to paint Masters as extreme on these and other issues, someone who wouldn’t be able to work in a bipartisan fashion as the late GOP Sen. John McCain did.
“I think we all know guys like this,” Kelly said, turning to Masters in his sharpest attack of the debate:
While admitting that Biden is the “legitimate president,” Masters stumbled over questions related to the 2020 election, blaming a conspiracy run by “Big Media, Big Tech and the FBI” for suppressing information on Hunter Biden’s laptop. Masters has previously falsely claimed that Trump won.
Kelly hit Masters for being extreme on abortion and backing a “national abortion ban.” Masters, who’s scrubbed his website of earlier statements on the issue, said he supports a 15-week ban with exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother.
Libertarian Marc Victor pummeled both men, holding his own throughout the hour-long session despite the fact that he has little chance of victory next month.
In the end, Kelly – who has a slight lead in the polls – probably came off a little better despite the slow start. Masters, however, was quite effective at times, especially on inflation and the border. This race is likely to go down to the wire.
The Coverage
| → | Arizona Republic: “Mark Kelly takes fire from Blake Masters, slugs back in heated Senate debate,” by Ronald J. Hansen and Alison Steinbach |
| → | NBC: “Kelly breaks with Biden over ‘dumb’ decision on immigration in heated Arizona Senate debate,” by Allan Smith and Sahil Kapur |
| → | NYT: “Five Takeaways From the Arizona Senate Debate,” by Jennifer Medina and Jack Healy |
– John Bresnahan
PAIN AT THE PUMP
California Dems request FTC investigation into oil companies
As gas prices rise nationally, California Democratic Rep. Mike Levin is leading 30 of his California Democratic colleagues in demanding a Federal Trade Commission investigation into the state’s oil refineries. Levin is alleging oil companies may be “engaging in non-competitive practices” due to “the significant rise in gasoline prices across California over recent weeks despite the stability of global crude prices.”
The letter points out that Californians are experiencing gas prices that are $2.55 higher than the national average. Here’s more from the letter, which is addressed to FTC Chair Lina Khan:
Democrats have long attempted to place the blame on oil companies for elevated gas prices. In May, the House passed the Consumer Fuel Price Gouging Prevention Act, which allowed the FTC to “crack down on any oil and gas companies that are distorting or manipulating fuel markets.”
Bottom line: With just weeks to go before the midterms, rising gas prices could be a killer blow for House Democrats. This letter, led by a vulnerable Frontline Democrat, is one way the party is trying to deal with the price hikes.
— Max Cohen
THE CAMPAIGN
| → | New: Winning for Women Action Fund, a GOP group dedicated to electing Republican women, raised nearly $5 million in the third quarter, along with its affiliated groups. The tally marks the organization’s highest ever quarterly fundraising haul. |
| → | Here’s an example of how Democrats are responding to attacks that they are anti-police: Frontline Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee (Mich.) is touting that he “stood up to some in his own party and pushed to hire more police officers.” |
Kildee is locked in a tight reelection race against Republican Paul Junge. The seat was recently shifted from Lean Democratic to Democratic Toss-Up by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
| → | Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.), who is running against Republican Brian Maryott in a district President Joe Biden won by 11 points, is running an ad about Jan. 6 and election deniers. The ad urges voters to “vote for candidates who believe” in democracy – after noting that Maryott indicated he does not believe the 2020 election was rightly decided. |
| → | The DCCC is continuing to target Republicans running in competitive House races with attacks on abortion. A new ad labels Jim Bognet — Rep. Matt Cartwright’s (D-Pa.) GOP opponent — as an extremist who will “vote for a national abortion ban.” |
| → | In case you were wondering, former Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) still has $6.1 million in his campaign account. He filed his October quarterly Thursday. |
– Max Cohen and Jake Sherman
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