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November 10, 2022
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THE TOP
Happy Thursday morning.
News: House Democrats will hold their leadership elections Nov. 30, several sources told us Wednesday evening.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi is in Egypt for the COP27 climate conference until tomorrow. The Democratic Caucus — and frankly, all of Washington — is waiting for Pelosi to make a statement about her political future.
Top Democrats maintain that control of the House is still in play despite the fact that Republicans have claimed victory already. And while Democrats’ path is narrow, races in New Mexico, Oregon and Colorado continue to break their way. Election results in California are slowly trickling in as well. All of which means that a GOP majority, if it does become official, is bound to be a narrow one.
Inside McCarthy’s speakership playbook
Our goal this morning is to lay out Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s strategy to become speaker of the House – should Republicans lock up the majority.
Over the next several days, Twitter will be ablaze – by us at times – with tidbits about lawmakers coming and going from McCarthy’s second-floor Capitol office. But what matters more than who McCarthy is meeting with at any moment is his overall plan to win the speakership after a half-dozen years striving to get there.
We spent Tuesday and Wednesday on the phone with House Republican lawmakers, aides, McCarthy advisers and allies in an attempt to determine how the 57-year old is seeking to win the gavel.
Here’s what’s going on:
| → | Perspective: There’s no doubt that Republicans are disappointed by their showing Tuesday night. GOP leadership expected to win upwards of 25 seats. In reality, if they win the majority, they’ll be forced to settle for a narrower margin of control. |
But when McCarthy talks to House Republicans and candidates, he puts a different spin on the outcome. “We picked up seats,” McCarthy emphasizes, adding Republican governors lost seats, as did Senate Republicans — for the moment.
McCarthy tells Republican colleagues that they could ultimately end up controlling somewhere in the neighborhood of 230 seats. Had McCarthy started off the cycle explaining how difficult it would be to win back the House, holding between 224 and 228 seats would be an acceptable outcome. McCarthy and senior Republicans, as well as their outside allies, set the bar impossibly high.
| → | The dynamics of a new GOP majority: Should the GOP win the House and should McCarthy become speaker, he’ll preside over a conference that’s unlike any Republican majority in recent memory. |
The majority will be slim, with two main factions trying to flex their muscles – hardline conservatives and their more moderate colleagues.
And this GOP majority will be built in unusual territory: blue-state Republicans that hold districts that President Joe Biden won. Helping these Republicans hang onto their seats in 2024 will be a major challenge for McCarthy and other party leaders.
There were moderates in the House GOP before, of course, but those moderates served in Republican majorities that had upwards of 240 members. This majority will be much slimmer, giving the middle much more sway.
This will take some getting used to for House Freedom Caucus types, who are used to leadership lavishing attention on them. The tension between the two factions will be a key theme of the next two years. That Republicans need unanimity may actually help in keeping the majority together.
Think of it this way: In a tight majority, the HFC and moderates have equal clout. Conservatives will quickly have to learn that they can’t drag things their way because it simply won’t fly with the moderates.
In other words, right-wing figures such Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) will have as much say as moderates like Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio).
| → | How McCarthy thinks about concessions to the right: Over the fall when we traveled with McCarthy, we asked him how he’d respond to lawmakers seeking concessions or favors in exchange for their vote for speaker. This included changes to the rules package governing House operations. |
“I personally don’t take well to leveraging,” McCarthy told us in October. “I just don’t do it.”
Yet McCarthy at this point may have no choice but to at least entertain some concessions. If he has a 224-seat majority – the low end of his team’s current estimates – McCarthy can only lose six votes on the floor and still become speaker. He has two options – call conservatives bluff and attempt to steamroll them, or find some concessions he can support. If the majority ends up closer to 220, it will be a real slog for McCarthy.
In reality, McCarthy is willing to give the right much of what it wants. Conservatives want to immediately end proxy voting, remove magnetometers from around the House chamber, force committees to meet in person and ban the use of the so-called Gephardt Rule, which essentially allows the House to raise the debt limit without a direct vote. The leadership also is willing to stipulate that bills must move through the committee process instead of keeping power concentrated in the speaker’s office.
There are some more problematic changes that conservatives are seeking that McCarthy opposes. The most important is the motion to vacate the chair, which allows any member to seek a vote on removing the speaker. This was the threat that conservatives wielded over former Speakers John Boehner and Paul Ryan, ultimately making it difficult for them to run the House. Speaker Nancy Pelosi changed the process so that only the Democratic or GOP leader can offer such a motion, and conservatives want to change it back.
McCarthy won’t support that, but aides signaled to us that they’d kick the decision over to the House Republican Conference for a vote. The rules package will be considered Nov. 16, the day after leadership elections. Conservatives want to take up the rules package before any vote on leaders, which would give them more leverage over McCarthy.
McCarthy’s general message is this: I brought you to the majority. Let me lead.
At this point, the number of Republicans who have openly said they’d oppose McCarthy’s rise to the speaker’s chair is small. But with a small majority, every objection will be greatly magnified and will get lots of media attention.
Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) warned on a conservative news show that he wants a debate on the matter by House Republicans “I would say maybe not so fast. Maybe we should have a good discussion within the confines of our internal body,” Biggs said.
Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) told Axios that he would back a challenge to McCarthy. “I don’t think he has the votes,” Good said.
Here’s who other Republicans are watching when it comes to supporting McCarthy: Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) and Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.). Remember – the HFC has its new-member retreat this week in D.C. The retreat is being hosted by CPI, the organization run by former Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), who has taken delight in torturing McCarthy since 2015.
– Jake Sherman, Heather Caygle and John Bresnahan
FALL EVENTS
The next few weeks will be full of can’t-miss conversations. Be sure to RSVP!
NEW: On Wednesday, Dec. 7 at 9 a.m. ET we’ll be sitting down with Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) to talk about his role on the Ways & Means Committee and the panel’s priorities for 2023. The conversation is the final installment of our “Investing in Tomorrow, Today” series, presented by Apollo Global management. RSVP to join us in person or on the livestream!
Next week we’re sitting down with Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) to talk about the impact of 5G on energy. Join us in person or on the livestream on Wednesday, Nov. 16 at 9 a.m. ET! It’s the last event in our series, “5G’s Climate Impact,” that explores the wide ranging use of 5G technology, especially when it comes to climate change. RSVP here.
Join us for a virtual conversation with Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) on Monday, Nov. 21 at 12 p.m. ET. We’ll be talking to her about the importance of privacy and security in new and existing technologies. It’s the second event in our three-part series, “Building Trust in Technology.” RSVP here.
Last but not least, our virtual conversation with Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) about the future of democracy, voting rights reforms and more is on Tuesday, Nov. 29 at 9 a.m. ET. RSVP here.
SENATE CONTROL
Arizona, Alaska and Nevada counts continue – slowly
Votes are still being counted in key Senate races that could determine control of the chamber, and it may be days before any official outcomes are declared. The Georgia Senate race between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican Herschel Walker is already headed to a Dec. 6 runoff.
In Arizona, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly continues to lead GOP challenger Blake Masters as results trickle in, including a batch from Maricopa County last night. Hundreds of thousands of ballots still need to be processed. Kelly continues to hold a lead of more than 90,000 votes. Cochise County is conducting a hand count of votes despite a judicial order saying it shouldn’t, which will further complicate the situation.
In Nevada, Republican challenger Adam Laxalt has a roughly 15,000 vote lead over Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto as mail ballots are counted. More than 100,000 ballots remain, and CCM is cutting into Laxalt’s lead.
And in Alaska, the results won’t be known until after Nov. 23 when state officials conduct that final round of ranked-choice balloting, although the seat will remain in GOP hands.
Incumbent GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski narrowly trails Republican challenger Kelly Tshibaka, but neither reached the 50% threshold needed for victory. Murkowski is expected to have the edge in the final round of balloting due to her broader appeal to Democrats and independent voters. Tshibaka was backed by former President Donald Trump, who was angered by Murkowski’s support for his impeachment following the Jan. 6 insurrection.
– John Bresnahan
THE WHIP RACE
Emmer’s large endorsement list
The race for House GOP whip is extraordinarily competitive. NRCC Chair Tom Emmer is running against Reps. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.).
Banks, a close ally of former President Donald Trump, is trying to position himself as the person who could bridge the middle and right wings of the conference – and he does have a long list of supporters from both groups.
Ferguson, the current chief deputy whip, has the most experience whipping for votes. That will be critical in a tighter-than-expected GOP majority. The one thing Ferguson doesn’t have is the support of Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who’s not a fan of the Georgia Republican. We don’t have a great sense of the breadth of Ferguson’s support as of now. We know he counts Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Jake Ellzey (R-Texas) and Austin Scott (R-Ga.) as supporters, but we haven’t seen much else from Ferguson’s camp.
We have a new, quite large list from Emmer this morning that shows an extremely diverse group of supporters. This the first time anyone outside Emmer’s camp is seeing the list.
Reps. Gary Palmer (Ala.), French Hill (Ark.), Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Ken Calvert (Calif.), Ken Buck (Colo.), Carlos Gimenez (Fla.), Randy Feenstra (Iowa), Bill Huizenga (Mich.), Brad Finstad (Minn.), Michelle Fischbach (Minn.), Pete Stauber (Minn.), Blaine Leutkemeyer (Mo.), Don Bacon (Neb.), Mike Flood (Neb.), Mark Amodei (Nev.), Andrew Garbarino (N.Y.), Patrick McHenry (N.C.), Dave Joyce (Ohio), Bob Latta (Ohio), Mike Turner (Ohio), Stephanie Bice (Okla.), Tom Cole (Okla.), Frank Lucas (Okla.), Dan Meuser (Pa.), Guy Reschenthaler (Pa.), G.T. Thompson (Pa.), Michael Burgess (Texas), Dan Newhouse (Wash.) and Bryan Steil (Wis.).
Del. Amata Coleman Radewagen (American Samoa) is also on board.
Newly elected Republicans: Tom Kean Jr. (N.J.), Anthony D’Esposito (N.Y.), Mike Lawler (N.Y.), Marcus Molinaro (N.Y.), George Santos (N.Y.), Monica De La Cruz (Texas), Derrick Van Orden (Wis.).
So, as you can see, Emmer does have a healthy base of support from newly elected Republicans.
He also has establishment figures backing him, including Lucas, Cole, McHenry and Turner. Emmer has drawn from the House Financial Services Committee, on which he serves – Leutkemeyer and Hill. And he has support from some of the top young Republicans, including Bice, Steil and Reschenthaler, who is his top whip. He has conservatives like Biggs and moderates like Joyce. This isn’t the totality of his support, of course — just a snapshot.
Remember: The winner of this race needs to get the support of a simple majority of House Republicans.
– Jake Sherman
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COMMITTEE MOVES
Boyle to seek top Dem post on House Budget panel
Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) is seeking to become the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, either in the majority or minority.
In a letter obtained by Punchbowl News, the 45-year-old Boyle – just elected to a fifth term – said he’ll focus on defending Social Security and Medicare from any spending cuts, as well as protecting other social programs, if elevated to the post.
Here’s Boyle:
Boyle is also pushing to end the recurring political brawls over raising the debt limit, which is likely to become another partisan flashpoint in the next Congress. House Republicans are warning that they won’t agree to raise the debt limit without spending cuts, which could lead to a showdown. Some lawmakers in both parties – including Boyle – want Congress to raise the debt limit during the upcoming lame-duck session to avoid this confrontation.
Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.), chair of the Budget Committee, is retiring at the end of this Congress. House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is next in line on the Budget panel. Jeffries, though, has his sights aimed higher, including becoming the next House Democratic leader.
Rep. Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.) is also senior to Boyle on the Budget panel, although he’s likely more focused on the Ways and Means Committee. Boyle holds a seat on Ways and Means as well.
A Pennsylvania native, Boyle attended Notre Dame and then later received a master’s degree in public policy from Harvard. He was elected to the Pennsylvania House of Representatives in 2008. Boyle was elected to Congress in 2014, where he’s focused on budget and fiscal policy issues.
– John Bresnahan
TA-TA FOR NOW
Top Schumer aide to depart
Justin Goodman, the top communications aide to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, is leaving Capitol Hill after nearly a decade working for the New York Democrat.
Goodman’s last day will be Tuesday. He’ll announce his next steps in the coming weeks.
Goodman has been the top spokesman and leadership adviser to Schumer for the last four years. He’s been the chief spokesman for every Senate battle in recent memory, including the impeachment trials and all of the legislative fights during the Biden administration.
You know the guy who Schumer is always talking to during news conferences in the Capitol? That’s Goodman. See above.
Taking over for Goodman will be Alex Nguyen, who has been the national press secretary. Allison Biasotti, who manages Schumer’s upstate New York portfolio, will be national press secretary.
Schumer’s office consistently has some of the top communications hands in the Democratic Party.
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
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