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THE TOP
Happy Friday morning, and happy Veterans Day.
Speaker Mike Johnson’s tenure, just over two weeks old, has brought a fascinating dynamic to the fore for the House Republican Conference — it’s now every member for themselves.
Gone are the days when House Republicans took difficult votes for the greater good of the party or to strengthen the speaker’s hand in a showdown with the Senate. The House is now akin to a battle royale, with every lawmaker acting purely out of self-interest.
It’s true that there was never much Republican loyalty in this Congress to begin with, as former Speaker Kevin McCarthy would acknowledge.
But after 10 months of brutal GOP infighting that culminated in McCarthy’s ouster and in the eventual election of Johnson, a 51-year-old with very limited leadership experience, emotions remain very raw. Members are looking toward the 2024 election, with former President Donald Trump likely at the top of the ticket, and making the choice to vote however they want.
Consider this: The House Republican leadership had to pull two critical spending bills this week. Neither would’ve become law, yet both illustrated the divides in the House Republican Conference and members’ complete unwillingness to bridge them.
Both moderate New York Republicans and hardline conservatives were unmoved by the leadership’s entreaties on the Transportation-HUD spending bill. New York Republicans were peeved that the bill cut too much from Amtrak and public transit, while hardliners thought it didn’t cut enough.
On Thursday, the GOP leadership abruptly pulled the Financial Services-General Government spending bill when both conservatives and moderates revolted. Conservatives didn’t like that the legislation failed to explicitly ban funding for a new FBI headquarters. Moderates opposed the repeal of a provision that prohibited D.C. companies from discriminating against employees who get an abortion.
Johnson and party leaders lobbied their members for two days to back the FSGG measure, only to come up short. In fact, the leadership was bested by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who whipped conservatives against the FSGG bill.
“That’s the proposal and it’s like, ‘No, we’re not doing that,’” Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) said of the abortion language. “Let’s get this done once and for all. If you have non-core abortion language to put in these bills, put them into separate amendments.”
“Us pragmatic conservatives — the guys in Biden districts — we felt like we were walked on for nine months,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) noted. He added:
“What you’re seeing is the pragmatic conservatives, the common sense conservatives, say we’re not going to get run over anymore. It’s probably a bigger challenge for Mike — Speaker Johnson — to overcome. But we’re tired of being treated like second-class citizens.”
This dynamic is about to become much more important. The federal government will shut down in a week and Johnson has yet to unveil how he plans to fund agencies beyond Nov. 17. Other GOP leaders have been kept in the dark. Rank-and-file Republicans have been frustrated with the lack of information. We’ve been told an announcement is imminent.
One pathway is a so-called “laddered CR,” which would extend government funding in two tranches over the next few months. Senators in both parties, House Democrats and the White House think this is a bad idea. But several sources have indicated this is where Johnson is leaning.
Another option for Johnson is to move a continuing resolution that extends into January and attach Israel aid and the creation of a fiscal committee to the measure.
Yet Johnson has boxed himself in there, too. Since he initially insisted on conditioning aid to Israel on cutting IRS funding, conservatives are demanding that again.
It seems likely that Johnson will first try to move a CR package favored by the House Freedom Caucus. It’s not clear the laddered approach will pass the House. The GOP conference may be forced to return to reality and pass a more pared-down, mainstream bill.
But the HFC has its demands, and they’re making them known.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said the CR needs to be “at or below” the spending levels mandated in the Fiscal Responsibility Act and all extra spending — such as Israel — needs to be matched by equal spending cuts. “Mike was right about that,” Roy said.
Of course, what Roy wants isn’t going to become law. And therein lies the rub. Hardline conservatives have not been content to recognize that their preferred pathway is usually the minority view in the conference. The question is, can the two sides put their self-interest aside for the better of the conference?
Also: Three members of the House are headed for the exits. Reps. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio), Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.) and Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.) will all forgo reelection. Wenstrup and Kilmer announced their retirement. And local news outlets in Buffalo reported Higgins would leave Congress this year to run Shea’s Performing Arts Center.
— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Max Cohen
Scheduling note: We’re only publishing the AM issue today in honor of Veterans Day. We’ll be back to our regular schedule on Monday.
November Event: Join us for a conversation with Reps. Shontel Brown (D-Ohio) and Nikema Williams (D-Ga.) on Tuesday, Nov. 14, starting at 5 p.m. ET. We’re discussing disparities impacting Black women, including those in health, finance and education. The program will be followed by a cocktail reception with drinks and light bites. RSVP here!
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THE SENATE
The erosion of the Senate’s deal-making middle
Rob Portman. Roy Blunt. Lamar Alexander. Jeff Flake. Bob Corker. Mitt Romney.
They all had one thing in common — they’re deal-making conservatives who decided not to run for reelection in the era of Donald Trump. And nearly all of them were replaced with Trump loyalists.
Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) decision to forgo reelection in 2024 is very likely to usher in another Trump ally in Republican Gov. Jim Justice.
Whatever you think about Manchin, his retirement from the Senate will serve as yet another data point in a multi-year trend in the upper chamber — the erosion of the deal-making middle in both parties.
“All of us who are in that deal-making mode — and I consider myself one — will just have to do more,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said. “But nobody’s indispensable here.”
There are still influential and capable members who can reach compromises. But the 2024 cycle has already seen high-profile moderates such as Manchin and Romney bow out.
And Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), who has been central to many of the Senate’s big bipartisan deals, is trailing her opponents in a three-way race, according to recent polling. Sinema hasn’t yet said whether she’ll run for reelection.
To be sure, plenty of people are happy that Manchin plans to retire — especially Republican leaders, who are now one step closer to reclaiming the Senate majority.
Manchin has locked arms with fellow Democrats on major issues including President Joe Biden’s signature legislative achievement, the Inflation Reduction Act.
But as the Senate’s most conservative Democrat, Manchin has been considered the most important swing vote on every recent big bill and nomination. That was especially true during the first two years of Biden’s presidency. The Senate operated with a 50-50 Democratic majority but was still able to pass landmark legislation.
Manchin’s independent streak is what has defined him, and it’s why he’s been able to win in deep-red West Virginia. But progressives heavily criticized Manchin, especially over his refusal to get rid of the Senate’s legislative filibuster and his opposition to climate-change measures.
“I saw this coming — it was, in my opinion, already built into the stock price,” Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) said about Manchin’s decision. “I’ve never said anything personal against the senator… It’s only been, I vote for one thing, he voted another way.”
And on some issues — fossil fuel use, for example — Manchin has been firmly on Republicans’ side. It’s no surprise given the state he represents.
“Sen. Manchin has been a great ally on American energy … and I’ve appreciated working with him on all kinds of stuff,” said Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), who has brought Manchin into the fold on efforts to undo some of the Biden administration’s energy policies.
Yet the rise of Trump pushed the GOP in a decidedly more extreme direction. Democrats aren’t just wrong politically, the thinking goes, they’re dangerous — and any Republican who cuts deals with Democrats is, by extension, dangerous and should be removed from office. The fallout from the 2020 election was just gasoline on this fire.
The Senate is pretty much the last bastion of the old pre-Trump Republican Party. That starts with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. But it also includes other senior Republicans who had the temerity to admit that Trump lost the 2020 election. The end of this special status will accelerate with Trump’s return as the likely 2024 GOP presidential nominee.
The rise of Trumpism, conversely, pushed Democrats even further to the left, which explains why Manchin felt increasingly isolated within his own party.
Yet while the base focuses on what Manchin and Sinema won’t support, they overlook the fact that the pair overwhelmingly voted with Biden, especially on Supreme Court and other judicial nominees — a major White House priority.
— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan
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2024 WATCH
Wisconsin Republicans eyeing hedge fund manager to challenge Baldwin
News: Wisconsin Republicans are aggressively recruiting businessman Eric Hovde to challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), as the GOP seeks to flip a Senate seat in a key presidential swing state.
Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told us Hovde was his top pick against Baldwin, and the two have been in conversations.
“Eric Hovde would be a great candidate in Wisconsin,” Daines told us. “The fact that he ran in a Senate primary against Tommy Thompson and lost by a few points shows he’s been involved and has run a big race before.”
Daines added that Hovde’s business experience would be an asset in the Senate.
“He’s a successful businessman and we need more men and women who have run businesses,” Daines said. “It takes a little time sometimes to get your business affairs in order before you run for a major campaign, but [Hovde] is energized.”
Wisconsin, of course, is a potential pickup opportunity for Senate Republicans. Republicans are working with the most favorable map in years and hoping to take back the Senate after losing out due to poor candidate quality in 2022.
Hovde has publicly said he is seriously considering jumping into the Senate race but has not yet formally declared. He has, however, engaged with Democratic attacks on Twitter referring to him as a potential Senate candidate.
Along with Hovde, former race car driver and businessman Scott Mayer and former Milwaukee Sheriff David Clarke have also been exploring runs. Three other low-profile candidates, including Stacey Klein, Rejani Raveendran and Patrick Schaefer-Wicke, have declared.
The filing deadline for Wisconsin Senate candidates is June 3.
Several Republican sources predict Hovde will enter the race early next year and self-fund his campaign. Many Wisconsin Republicans said Hovde would be the best challenger to Baldwin, who is running for a third term.
Hovde ran in the 2012 GOP Senate primary in Wisconsin but was ultimately defeated by Thompson.
“Hovde would be a good candidate. I think he would be formidable,” Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) told us.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said Hovde’s wealth will be an advantage for him if he decides to enter the race at a later date than when candidates usually announce.
“He’s certainly one of the people that have been exploring it,” Johnson told us. “The only reason you have to announce sooner rather than later is just the imperative of how expensive these races are. That’s the evaluation he has to make.”
Democrats say they relish the possibility of Hovde, a multi-millionaire who owns a home in California, jumping into the race.
“[He’s] got some money but wasn’t impressive in his failed primary run,” Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) said.
Baldwin told The Messenger that Hovde could take his time entering the race because of his deep pockets, but his out-of-state ties would make him a poor candidate.
Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), chair of the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, said the fact that Hovde hasn’t gotten in the race yet indicates that Republicans aren’t confident they can defeat Baldwin.
“Sen. Baldwin is a fantastic senator and candidate,” Peters told us. “That’s why people aren’t in the race, and I’m confident she’s going to win.”
— Mica Soellner
THE HOUSE GOP
How Fitzpatrick messaged his speaker votes
As the speaker vacancy stretched into its second week, vulnerable House Republicans faced a political quandary: Vote for flamethrower Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) or cast a protest vote.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), who represents a district President Joe Biden won in 2020, was in an interesting spot. Fitzpatrick voted for Jordan on the first two ballots, before backing then-Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry.
We got our hands on a letter Fitzpatrick wrote to a Yardley, Pa., constituent on Oct. 31 explaining his vote for McHenry. It’s a fascinating look at how Fitzpatrick messaged his votes to constituents.
Fitzpatrick touted his Oct. 20 vote for McHenry and “against Jim Jordan.” Left unsaid, however, was that on Oct. 17 and Oct. 18, Fitzpatrick voted for Jordan.
The context of the letter is that Fitzpatrick’s office was responding to specific constituent feedback amid multiple rounds of the speaker election.
Central to Fitzpatrick’s political image is his role as co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus and his willingness to work across the aisle. It’s this crossover appeal that has allowed the Pennsylvania Republican to consistently win reelection in a district that leans Democratic.
So when Fitzpatrick initially supported Jordan for speaker, the move raised eyebrows and led to condemnation from Democratic campaign groups seeking to unseat him.
When speaking to reporters on Oct. 18 — after Jordan’s second failed floor vote — Fitzpatrick said his vote for Jordan was “to keep the lights on.”
“It’s not for any person or against any person,” Fitzpatrick said at the time.
Fitzpatrick wrote in the Oct. 31 letter that he backed McHenry because he believed that the North Carolina Republican “would have the broadest bipartisan appeal across the Congress to get the necessary votes to re-open the People’s House.”
Fitzpatrick also pledged to “pursue two-party consensus solutions and to block any extreme legislative proposals that are inconsistent with our community’s values.”
Another interesting note: Fitzpatrick didn’t directly address his own vote for Speaker Mike Johnson.
“After multiple rounds of voting with multiple candidates, Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana was ultimately elected Speaker,” Fitzpatrick wrote.
— Max Cohen
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MOMENTS
There are no events on President Joe Biden’s public schedule today. Congress is in recess in observance of Veterans Day.
CLIP FILE
NYT
→ | “As Haley Rises, the Clock Is Ticking on Taking Down Trump,” by Lisa Lerer, Jazmine Ulloa and Rebecca Davis O’Brien |
→ | “Joe Manchin’s Retirement Adds Fuel to 2024 Rumors,” by Reid J. Epstein in D.C. and Jonathan Weisman in Chicago |
→ | “Kamala Harris Is Set to Visit South Carolina for Campaign Kickoff,” by Reid J. Epstein and Maya King |
WSJ
→ | “On Debate Stage and Campaign Trail, Republicans Still Don’t Know How to Talk About Abortion,” by Molly Ball |
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
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