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November 20, 2023
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Monday morning.
HALIFAX, Nova Scotia — Senators from both parties warned their foreign counterparts this weekend that the United States can’t keep its commitment to Ukraine unless Congress addresses the crisis at the southern border — and that the window for action is quickly closing.
It was a jarring message for U.S. allies seeking reassurances from the bipartisan Senate delegation at the annual Halifax International Security Forum — American support for an embattled ally will hinge on a bipartisan deal on an issue that has long vexed Congress.
“Each of the groups that we’ve talked to — we’ve said this is going to determine whether or not there’s funding for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) told us. “Because how do you go back home and say you’re justifying their defense but you’re not protecting our own southern border? Without the border being addressed appropriately, nothing is going to move.”
For lawmakers, these international gatherings are intended in part to shore up potential concerns about U.S. commitments to various global security challenges. Domestic political issues are always acknowledged, but rarely in such an overt and detailed manner — especially ones as challenging as immigration policy. It came up in nearly every meeting and side conversation, as representatives from allied nations wondered when — and how — Congress would approve more aid for Kyiv.
Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) met with a Ukrainian lawmaker whom he said was “surprised to hear that border security — not just funding for the border, but a change in our asylum policy — was a demand” from Republicans.
Yet these demands are a reflection of the perilous political dynamics surrounding Ukraine and foreign aid more generally. Public support for the Ukrainian war effort is eroding, even as President Joe Biden vows that the U.S.-backed Western coalition will support Kyiv for “as long as it takes” to defeat Russia.
Back in Washington, a bipartisan Senate group is negotiating changes to asylum policies that could stem the flow of illegal immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border. Senate Republicans are conditioning their support for the foreign aid package on Democrats’ willingness to accept these changes.
But here in Halifax, it wasn’t just Republicans making that point. Democrats acknowledged this same reality during the group’s nine bilateral meetings and countless informal chats — that they’ll need to accede to these demands in some form.
“We Democrats have to do something about the border. I think it’s a real issue,” said Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.). “The situation at the border is a lot different than it was 10 or 15 years ago. And maintaining the same kind of policy is not a sustainable position, in my view.”
That a progressive like Welch is saying this could be a positive sign for prospects of a deal. At the same time, Democrats are cautioning that the GOP won’t be able to force them to accept sweeping border policy changes, even though Republicans would have enough votes to block any aid bill.
“I’ve heard from my Republican friends that they think they have enormous leverage and that they can demand of us almost anything. They’re wrong,” Coons said. “The tougher their demands are, the more members of my caucus will refuse.”
Of course, those Republican senators calling for border policy changes that resemble the House GOP’s border bill (H.R. 2) are doing so because they want to block Ukraine aid anyway. However, the Senate’s border group includes Republicans who actually support Ukraine funding and theoretically wouldn’t want to see it jeopardized.
Warnings about the viability of the Western coalition grew more dire at the conference this year. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), who co-led the delegation, told us failure isn’t an option but “it’s important to remind people it’s not automatic” in a democracy. Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), the delegation’s lead Republican, warned of a nuclear arms race if Ukraine is abandoned.
When senators return to the Capitol next week, they’ll have just a few weeks to clear must-pass legislation including the defense authorization bill, as well as the massive supplemental package. This means the bipartisan border group will need to begin socializing an agreed-upon framework as soon as they return.
Nearly everyone we spoke with here agreed that, realistically, the end of the year is the deadline to get it done. Rounds said if the talks carry into next year, “You’d be too late, and I think the funding is gone.”
And then there’s the House. While Speaker Mike Johnson has suggested he’d put a Ukraine funding bill on the floor, this issue deeply divides his conference. Plus, House GOP conservatives will undoubtedly argue the border provisions aren’t tough enough.
Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), the Halifax delegation’s lone House member, said GOP Ukraine hawks he speaks with believe Johnson will honor his word.
“It’s one thing to have somebody who’s very conservative [as speaker]… But you can deal with that as long as you have confidence that person will maintain a deal and bring the conference along with them,” Crow told us. “Speaker Johnson appears to have credibility within his conference in a way that other speakers have not had — an ability to sell a deal, which is going to be very important.”
— Andrew Desiderio
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WASHINGTON X THE WORLD
Dems squeeze Biden on Israel as hostage deal looms
HALIFAX, Nova Scotia — President Joe Biden is facing new pressure from the left over Israel’s military operations in Gaza, with some progressives now calling for conditions to be imposed on U.S. military assistance to Israel.
This comes as the Biden administration is trying to broker a deal to release dozens of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for a temporary ceasefire. That would allow for more humanitarian aid to flow into southern Gaza — a chief demand of Biden’s critics.
The looming agreement also allows the White House to address progressives’ criticism of Biden’s posture toward Israel’s military campaign against Hamas, which has resulted in thousands of Palestinian deaths.
White House officials warn they won’t accept conditions on aid for Israel. However, they note there’s been intense pressure both publicly and privately from top administration officials, including Biden, over Israel’s conduct of its Gaza offensive.
Biden, who strongly backed Israel following the Oct. 7 terror attacks, has seen his poll numbers crater over his handling of the conflict. A new NBC poll released Sunday showed Biden at just 40% approval. Younger Americans — a key group for Democrats — are especially upset.
“There’s more and more of us who can’t ignore the reality that Israel does not have a plan… The plan right now is to just continue pulverizing Gaza in search of Hamas,” Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) told us on the sidelines of the Halifax International Security Forum on Saturday.
“Clearly, you need humanitarian aid,” Welch added. “But the best humanitarian aid is to have a war plan that doesn’t create such a humanitarian catastrophe.”
Congress often conditions military assistance to security partners on that country’s human-rights record. Support for Israel, though, has long been seen as non-partisan, with U.S. presidents and Hill leaders approving a steady supply of the most sophisticated American weapons systems.
In Halifax, Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) said simply that “restricting and directing the conduct of the war — I don’t think you’ll see in statute by Congress.”
Administration officials said Democrats across the board support Biden’s position on Israel.
“There is diverse, bipartisan support in Congress — including among progressives — for President Biden’s policy of backing Israel’s right to self-defense in accordance with international humanitarian law, and working to lay the conditions for a two-state solution to ensure the long-term security of both the Israeli and Palestinian peoples,” said Andrew Bates, White House deputy press secretary.
Still, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was among those calling for specific conditions to be placed on further U.S. aid, saying Israel is waging “almost total warfare against the Palestinian people.” Sanders wants a “significant pause in military operations” to allow for more humanitarian aid to reach Gaza.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), another leading progressive, has called on Israel to “stop the bombing NOW,” but she isn’t pressing for a ceasefire. Several dozen protesters gathered outside Warren’s home in Cambridge, Mass. on Sunday, showing how charged this issue has become for progressives.
The Biden administration and other U.S. allies have tried to toe the line between supporting Israel’s right to defend itself after Hamas’ attacks and urging its military leaders to exercise more caution in Gaza.
A top White House official ducked the question Sunday when asked by CBS’ Margaret Brennan on “Face The Nation” whether Israel has violated the “Leahy Law,” which bars U.S. aid to governments that violate human rights.
“I’m not going to get into legal determinations in public,” said White House Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer. “No countries are obviously exempt from laws of armed conflict or from the U.S. statutory restrictions, but beyond that, I’m not going to say more.”
Biden’s allies on the Hill argue his administration’s public pressure on Israel has already worked.
“We haven’t yet seen the kind of concrete changes in strategy that maybe [Welch] is hoping for. I would argue there have been some changes in strategy,” Coons said, citing humanitarian pauses to allow aid into Gaza.
Republicans remain firmly behind Israel’s efforts. Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), the top Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee and the lead GOP senator in Halifax, said it’d be inappropriate for the United States to dictate Israel’s war plans. Risch noted Hamas routinely uses civilians as human shields while also building its command posts in densely populated civilian areas.
Israel sees Hamas as an existential threat, much like the United States viewed the Nazis during World War II, Risch added.
“I don’t know who was yelling for a ceasefire when we marched across Germany at the end, but there were lots and lots of civilian casualties,” Risch told us.
— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan
PRESENTED BY CENTER FORWARD
If the Fed adopts its Basel III endgame, our economic landing will be anything but soft. Tell the Fed: Protect our economy.
THE SPEAKER
Johnson sets up new big-money fundraising vehicle
Speaker Mike Johnson has set up a new joint fundraising account, which will allow him to finally raise big dollars from major donors.
Grow the Majority will be able to accept up to $850,600 from GOP donors. The JFC will distribute to 25 NRCC “Patriots,” who are the party’s most vulnerable incumbents; 16 GOP challengers in NRCC targeted districts; funds in 10 NRCC targeted districts; state parties in 20 states; the NRCC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, RNC and Johnson’s reelection campaign and leadership PAC.
JFCs are a way for leadership to take six-figure checks from the party’s top donors. One of Johnson’s challenges is that many of the party’s wealthiest and most loyal donors have already maxed out to many of these accounts. But a JFC is necessary in today’s House political climate.
Johnson’s ability to fundraise is still a big question in the House GOP. He raised $16 million for CLF in the first few weeks of becoming speaker. But former Speaker Kevin McCarthy kept the House GOP political operation afloat for years, transferring millions to the NRCC and raising piles of cash for CLF.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise beat Johnson to the punch with his own JFC, which has been in the works for some time.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD
Tony Podesta, the one-time mega-lobbyist, has a new client. He signed up Canadian Royalties Inc., a Canadian mining company.
Miller Strategies, mega-lobbyist Jeff Miller’s firm, has signed up FortiFi, a housing finance company.
— Jake Sherman
THE CAMPAIGN
The Anti-Defamation League is running an ad in New York, Washington and Los Angeles, showing the head of Hamas calling for the destruction of Israel after the Oct. 7 attack.
— Jake Sherman
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Presented by Apollo Global Management
One size rarely fits all. That’s why Apollo provides custom capital solutions designed to help companies achieve their ambitious business goals. Think Credit New