The Archive
Every issue of the Punchbowl News newsletter, including our special editions, right here at your fingertips.
Join the community, and get the morning edition delivered straight to your inbox.
November 8, 2023
Presented by Wells Fargo
At Wells Fargo, we cover more rural markets than many large banks, and nearly 30% of our branches are in low- or moderate-income census tracts. What we say, we do. See how.
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Wednesday morning.
Quick notes: Democrats had a very good Election Night on Tuesday. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky, dispatching Republican Daniel Cameron, a close ally of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Ohio voters enshrined the right to an abortion in the state’s constitution. And Democrats won control of the state legislature in Virginia. Gabe Amo, a former aide to President Joe Biden, won a special election in Rhode Island.
Maybe for just a minute, this will stop Democrats from hand-wringing over Biden’s lousy poll numbers. Maybe. And anoint a new national political star in the 45-year-old Beshear.
Conversely, it was a bad night for the GOP nationally. And it was a bad night for House Republicans, as their version of the FY2024 Transportation-HUD spending bill got pulled from the floor. When it will be taken up is still unclear.
The big question: Can Johnson deliver? Since the birth of the Tea Party movement and the 2010 House GOP landslide, the right has pined for a speaker who would listen to them. A speaker who would pursue their preferred strategies, seek confrontation with the Senate and White House instead of compromise and run the House as if it were an extension of the Republican Study Committee. A speaker who was one of them.
They’ve finally got that in new Speaker Mike Johnson, who emerged from weeks of brutal House GOP infighting as their party leader. Now the rubber will meet the road as to whether governing as a conservative hardliner can actually work. The early signs are mixed, at best.
Johnson has, in essence, delayed critical aid to Israel by turning it into a partisan political fight, tying the $14 billion in new funding for the embattled U.S. ally to enacting offsetting IRS cuts (and increasing the deficit). The Louisiana Republican is signaling he’s very open to possibly impeaching Biden. He’s leaning toward pursuing a strategy pushed by the House Freedom Caucus to bifurcate government funding, a risky move given that Democrats control the Senate and the White House. And Johnson passed on an opportunity to try to move a stopgap funding bill this week, instead pushing off any House action to avert a shutdown until days before the Nov. 17 deadline.
This is the kind of legislative saber-rattling conservatives have dreamed about for years. But can it work?
The reality is this: Aid to Israel is going nowhere fast. As we noted above, GOP leaders had to pull the Transportation-HUD spending bill Tuesday night because both moderate and conservative Republicans rebelled. There’s a better-than-even chance that the federal government could shut down next week. Vulnerable GOP lawmakers don’t love the idea of impeaching Biden while some senior House Republicans fret it could actually help the president politically. Plus the Democratic-controlled Senate will never convict him anyway.
But Johnson is likely to face little — if any — of the backlash that his predecessors felt if his plans fall apart.
For the moment, Johnson has succeeded in somewhat calming the crisis atmosphere that prevailed inside the House Republican Conference. Internal GOP meetings are less contentious than they have been throughout this Congress. Conservatives, in particular, seem willing to give Johnson a chance to find his way in very difficult circumstances. He’s still firmly in his honeymoon phase.
Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), who chairs the House Freedom Caucus, noted Johnson inherited his post following a disastrous few weeks for Republicans, which gives the speaker some more leeway in funding negotiations.
“Most of it was already baked in by the time he got here,” Perry said of Johnson. “The waters are just too high.”
Perry, however, was confident that Johnson won’t go for a clean CR like former Speaker Kevin McCarthy did at the end of September. That move ultimately cost McCarthy his job after conservative hardliners decided to oust the speaker.
“He’s not going to cave,” Perry insisted of Johnson.
Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), one of the eight lawmakers who voted to oust McCarthy, said he had full faith in Johnson to give the right what they want.
“The outcome is going to be quite a bit different,” Crane told us. “Speaker Johnson is a lot more conservative and I don’t believe he’s as transactional.”
Whether or not Johnson is more conservative than his GOP predecessors isn’t up for debate. He’s decidedly more to the right than McCarthy. Same with Paul Ryan or John Boehner.
Yet the real question is can a brand-new speaker with an inexperienced staff execute strategies straight from the Freedom Caucus playbook and be successful in an otherwise all-Democratic Washington? We’ll find out, but it’s going to be an up-and-down ride in the meantime.
— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Mica Soellner
November Event: Join us for a conversation with Reps. Shontel Brown (D-Ohio) and Nikema Williams (D-Ga.) on Tuesday, Nov. 14, starting at 5 p.m. ET. We’re discussing disparities impacting Black women, including those in health, finance and education. The program will be followed by a cocktail reception with drinks and light bites. RSVP here!
THE SENATE
Inside Senate Republicans’ big gamble on Ukraine and border security
In the modern Congress, one sure way to kill a popular idea is to link its prospects to lawmakers’ ability to pass something — anything — related to immigration.
Senate Republicans are about to test that theory for Ukraine aid.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell declared in no uncertain terms on Tuesday that Republicans won’t support a massive foreign-aid package — including Ukraine funding — without a GOP-approved fix for the U.S.-Mexico border. This includes policy changes, as well as more money.
“Everybody knows how strongly I feel about helping Ukraine — and Israel,” McConnell told reporters. “[But] the border needs to be a part of it if it’s going to clear the Senate.”
It’s a major gamble to tie Ukraine, or any issue, to immigration policy given Congress’ horrendous track record on the issue and the built-in political challenges. So this demand could imperil the larger package and, in turn, dash McConnell’s hopes for robust new Ukraine funding that would last through the 2024 elections.
But it’s also an acknowledgment of the new political reality McConnell finds himself in. Ukraine has become so toxic for the GOP base that even the party’s staunchest Ukraine supporters feel they can’t justify any new spending on its own. Hence the border-security demands. Yet Ukraine remains a top priority for McConnell, who views countering Russian aggression as a key element of his legacy.
In fact, the GOP’s deepening divisions over Ukraine have forced McConnell to constantly reevaluate his strategy for getting an aid package to President Joe Biden’s desk.
At the last government-funding deadline in late September, McConnell pushed to include even a small amount of Ukraine funding in the stopgap. Ukraine ultimately was left out, and defense hawks in both parties now see the window for passing new aid closing fast.
There are some reasons for optimism here by McConnell and the White House, however.
Even though Democrats are denouncing Republicans’ border proposal, they’re showing a willingness to negotiate — a recognition that they’re taking McConnell seriously.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said he wants a “true bipartisan deal” rather than a partisan wish list on immigration. Other top Democrats are expressing a sense of urgency given the GOP demands.
“If we are going to find a path forward on Ukraine, if we are going to get Republican support, then we’ve got to move fast and we’ve got to move smart,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who chairs the Appropriations subcommittee that funds border operations.
It comes as Democrats are highlighting Ukraine’s dire outlook if new aid isn’t approved. And Biden has often said the United States’ credibility — not to mention the security of Europe — is at risk if Ukraine is abandoned to Russian control.
Addressing the border could also help Biden politically. He’s been under fire over this issue from red and blue states alike, and recent polls reveal broad dissatisfaction with the administration’s handling of the border crisis.
“Democrats ought to embrace this. It’s the one thing President Biden can do to help his ratings right now,” Senate GOP Conference Chair John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told us. “The border is an area that, if he can actually change policy, enforce the law and apply a working policy, that could actually help his abysmal approval ratings.”
It’s unclear, though, if Republicans would accept Democratic counter-proposals. Schumer made clear that both sides need to give concessions. And Murphy said the border package must be “targeted” and “lean.”
This could actually boost prospects for a deal given that it wouldn’t be a wholesale rewrite of immigration laws — a much bigger hurdle.
— Andrew Desiderio
CENSURE WATCH
House votes to censure Tlaib with Democratic support
The House voted to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) late Tuesday night for her embrace of the controversial “From the river to the sea” slogan amid the Israel-Hamas war. Twenty-two Democrats joined most Republicans in supporting the resolution, despite Democratic leaders whipping a no vote.
Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.) offered the more narrowly tailored censure resolution, which didn’t require Tlaib to go to the well of the chamber for a verbal reprimand.
McCormick’s resolution accuses Tlaib — the first member of Congress of Palestinian descent — of “promoting false narratives regarding the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel and for calling for the destruction of the state of Israel.”
Tlaib released a video over the weekend that included the chant “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free.” The slogan is a rallying cry for Hamas, the terrorist group that executed the deadly Oct. 7 attacks in Israel. More than 1,400 Israelis died in those attacks, as well as some Americans. Hundreds more were kidnapped.
In an emotional speech on the House floor Tuesday, Tlaib said she’s critical of the Israeli government, not the Israeli people, and that her comments about the war have been misconstrued.
“I can’t believe I have to say this but Palestinian people are not disposable. We are human beings,” Tlaib said.
House Republican leaders initially scheduled a vote on the censure resolution for Wednesday. But leadership moved it to the vote series late Tuesday night after it became clear they didn’t have the votes to pass their FY2024 Transportation-HUD funding bill. GOP leaders pulled the THUD bill from the floor.
In an example of the anger at Tlaib within her caucus, 22 Democrats supported the censure resolution.
The Democrats who voted yes include: Reps. Steve Cohen (Tenn.), Jim Costa (Calif.), Angie Craig (Minn.), Don Davis (N.C.), Lois Frankel (Fla.), Jared Golden (Maine), Dan Goldman (N.Y.), Josh Gottheimer (N.J.), Greg Landsman (Ohio), Susie Lee (Nev.), Kathy Manning (N.C.), Jared Moskowitz (Fla.), Wiley Nickel (N.C.), Chris Pappas (N.H.), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.), Pat Ryan (N.Y.), Brad Schneider (Ill.), Kim Schrier (Wash.), Darren Soto (Fla.), Ritchie Torres (N.Y.), Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fla.) and Frederica Wilson (Fla.).
But not all Republicans were on board with the effort, with Reps. Ken Buck (Colo.), Thomas Massie (Ky.), John Duarte (Calif.) and Tom McClintock (Calif.) voting against the resolution.
Democrats tried to table the McCormick proposal Tuesday but that gambit failed. Last week, Democrats and two dozen Republicans voted to defeat Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) effort to censure Tlaib. Greene’s resolution accused Tlaib of “leading an insurrection.”
Greene offered a slightly toned-down version this week but pulled her resolution Tuesday night, saying “leadership failed to organize” the schedule. In reality, Greene’s second attempt at censuring Tlaib didn’t have support within the GOP conference while the McCormick version did.
— Max Cohen and Heather Caygle
PRESENTED BY BOEING
As a top employer of veterans in the United States, Boeing values the skillsets and experiences veterans bring to advance aerospace innovation. Learn More
PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS
Did you miss our pop-up conversation with Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) Tuesday? Cammack discussed government funding, aid for Israel and Ukraine as well as 5G and spectrum policy. Follow this link to watch the full conversation.
SWAG SURFING
GOP Conference vice chair candidates compete with swag
Cupcakes. Chick-fil-A. Cigars. Those are just a few of the gifts candidates for the House GOP vice chair post have handed out to colleagues as they try to stand out in a crowded field.
Speaker Mike Johnson, of course, previously held the second-tier leadership post. Now seven candidates are competing for the obscure role. House Republicans will meet to vote for the vice chair from 8-10 a.m. today.
The Republicans competing for the seat are: Reps. Beth Van Duyne (Texas), Nicole Malliotakis (N.Y.), Mike Collins (Ga.), Mark Alford (Mo.), Blake Moore (Utah), Brian Mast (Fla.) and Michelle Fischbach (Minn.).
The candidates made their case for the position in a closed-door forum on Tuesday, which some lawmakers described as boring. It was clear that the campaign swag remained front and center on many members’ minds.
“I think that’s for members to kind of keep their name top of mind,” Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) told us. “Beth Van Duyne had a card with a video in it making an appeal. That’s innovative. I got some Coke and peanuts. Got an energy drink from someone else, just little things.”
Several members said they were most impressed with Van Duyne’s digital greeting card that opened to a video of her making her case for vice chair.
Members also got cigars from Alford, cans of the Salt Lake City-based Black Rifle Coffee from Moore, Chick–fil–A sandwiches from Collins and cupcakes from Malliotakis.
“It’s a really good cupcake,” Malliotakis told us.
Malliotakis also designed a one-page pamphlet shaped like the Statue of Liberty sharing her messaging strategy.
Collins went all out and gave members several presents, including Halloween treat bags, Coca-Cola bottles and Georgia peanuts, and a custom-made “Member of Congress” koozie. (Collins has become known for animated memes on his social media.)
The Georgia Republican also provided custom cookies for communications directors along with Chick-fil-A meals for member offices, according to his aides.
Moore told us the gifting aspect of the race was a way to make it fun after the burnout the conference felt following the three-week speaker saga.
“The creative side is always good, but I don’t think the best treat gets the ultimate vote,” Moore said.
Of course, members will be judged by their platform as well as their relationships with their colleagues. With the campaign gifts, members have included an agenda and the goals they would like to achieve as vice chair.
Rep. Brian Babin (R-Texas), who is supporting Van Duyne, said most members have had their minds made up already. He predicted the forum’s audience had just about over half of the full conference.
“I got a cupcake and several other things, but I’m a Texan so I’m supporting Van Duyne,” Babin told us. “They’re all very capable candidates, so we’ll see what happens.”
— Mica Soellner
Crucial Capitol Hill news AM, Midday, and PM—5 times a week
Join a community of some of the most powerful people in Washington and beyond. Exclusive newsmaker events, parties, in-person and virtual briefings and more.
Subscribe to Premium
The Canvass Year-End Report
And what senior aides and downtown figures believe will happen in 2023.
Check it outEvery single issue of Punchbowl News published, all in one place
Visit the archive
Presented by Wells Fargo
At Wells Fargo, we cover more rural markets than many large banks, and nearly 30% of our branches are in low- or moderate-income census tracts. What we say, we do. See how.