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December 21, 2023
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Thursday morning.
After Congress jammed through a massive $1.7 trillion omnibus funding package just before Christmas last year, party leaders vowed that they’d finally get back to regular order by passing the 12 individual appropriations bills to fund the federal government.
There was all-new leadership at the Senate Appropriations Committee for the 118th Congress. Sens. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) took over as chair and vice chair. The House Appropriations panel had a new chair in Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas). Along with Rep. Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut, the top House Democrat on the committee, the Four Corners were all women for the first time in history.
This year was going to be different. Or so they said.
However, 2023 turned out to be an abject failure on the appropriations front. It wasn’t these four lawmakers’ fault, but Congress will be forced to deal with the consequences of this situation immediately when they return next month for Washington’s next big fight over spending.
“January is not going to be an enjoyable month, let me just say that,” Collins said this week. “So, happy New Year to all of you.”
While the Senate Appropriations Committee approved all 12 bills with strong bipartisan margins, only three of those measures passed on the floor. The first three-bill minibus cleared the Senate on Nov. 1, and the chamber hasn’t considered any additional funding bills since.
House GOP leaders, meanwhile, walked away from the spending levels spelled out in May’s Fiscal Responsibility Act agreement, opting to cut spending by another $100 billion. Of course, that partisan approach didn’t go over well with Democrats and led to the House compiling an abysmal track record. The House has passed only seven of the 12 bills. House GOP leaders were forced to pull a few bills from the floor. They even lost outright when trying to pass the Agriculture bill on a party-line vote.
Both chambers are now gone for the holidays, and there’s still no agreement on a topline spending number three months into FY2024. Absent congressional action, there’ll be a partial government shutdown on Jan. 19, with a full shutdown on Feb. 2.
Speaker Mike Johnson is already privately floating the idea of a year-long CR — effectively throwing in the towel on FY2024 appropriations. A full-year CR means roughly $100 billion in spending cuts, three-quarters on the non-defense side.
If there’s another short-term CR that doesn’t run through Sept. 30 — the end of the fiscal year — a 1% across-the-board cut of $50 billion-plus kicks in under the Fiscal Responsibility Act starting in April.
Here’s an explainer from House Appropriations Committee Democrats on the various scenarios.
“Come April 30, if House Republicans have not let us finish our work, there will be catastrophic consequences felt by the American people,” DeLauro said in a statement.
For her part, Collins told us she’d “argue strenuously against” a year-long CR.
“Our non-defense bills, if you add them all up, it is less than a 1% increase over last year,” Collins said. “So it’s not like we went crazy on spending. They are fiscally responsible bills.”
During a private Senate GOP lunch earlier this week, Collins gave a presentation to Republican senators about the negative impacts of a year-long CR on defense and national security. Collins noted that it would result in a 30% cut to the shipbuilding budget, for example.
Murray said a year-long CR would be “unprecedented and reckless” because it would “lock in outdated spending plans and devastating across-the-board cuts while locking all of us out of any kind of thoughtful decision-making process.”
“To avoid a shutdown… we need to push House Republicans to get serious about the deal they pushed for in the first place, so that we can finally start conferencing and passing bipartisan funding bills,” Murray said.
However, the fact that the Senate has only passed three of the 12 funding bills makes it hard for Senate appropriators to argue that the House should simply adopt the Senate’s approach of adhering to levels set in the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
Congress’ choices: One option would be to punt the Jan. 19 partial government shutdown deadline to Feb. 2. This would be a time-buying exercise and wouldn’t resolve anything really.
Hill leaders could also pass another short-term CR — even though Johnson has said he won’t — and hope to have a deal in place before the end of April. Spending cuts come April 30, but the real deadline is in mid-April.
Congress could agree on a topline number and pass all 12 bills individually — like the old days! — or do a series of “minibuses” or even an omnibus, although that would never fly with House Republicans.
Both chambers also will need to focus on the massive national-security supplemental funding bill for Ukraine and border security — if a deal comes together over the holidays.
— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan
BORDER TALKS
Behind the scenes between White House and McConnell over Ukraine, border
Congress has left town for the year without passing a new Ukraine aid package. And the finger-pointing over that failure is already in full swing.
Background: The White House first requested $4 billion in new money for the U.S.-Mexico border back in August. That White House request also included $24 billion for Ukraine. The proposal didn’t go anywhere, and Congress passed a last-minute CR to avoid an Oct. 1 government shutdown.
On Oct. 20, the White House sent a second supplemental request to the Hill. This package included $61 billion for Ukraine, as well as more than $13 billion for border security. The request included billions of dollars more for Israel and bolstering the U.S. military position in the Indo-Pacific.
Republicans, for their part, say they’ve made it crystal clear to the Biden administration for months that Ukraine aid wouldn’t go anywhere without significant policy changes to stem the unprecedented wave of migrants attempting to cross the southern border. White House officials engaged in the negotiations too late to reach a deal this year, Republicans contend.
Democratic leaders, meanwhile, say Republicans held Ukraine aid hostage for border policy demands that couldn’t pass either chamber or be signed into law by President Joe Biden. Republicans were effectively using the bipartisan priority of aid to Kyiv as leverage to achieve a partisan goal. And at the same time, House GOP leaders were consistently undermining Senate Republicans’ stated desire to get to a deal.
Behind the scenes: A GOP source close to the situation laid out a timeline of all the times that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell raised the issue of trading border policy changes for Ukraine aid with top White House officials.
It starts with a series of calls and meetings between senior Biden administration officials — including Biden — and McConnell. The Kentucky Republican is arguably Ukraine’s biggest booster on the Hill. McConnell has even complained publicly that he was doing what Biden should’ve been in arguing on Ukraine’s behalf.
Yet despite his pro-Ukraine views, McConnell told the White House several times that border policy changes were necessary to secure Senate passage of any Ukraine-Israel-Taiwan funding, according to a person familiar with the minority leader’s contacts since Sept. 30.
On Oct. 19, McConnell spoke by phone with Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Eleven days later, McConnell met with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and told him that both asylum and parole reform were necessary.
McConnell spoke by phone with White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients on Nov. 3 and relayed the same message about border policy changes. On Nov. 6 and Nov. 21, McConnell spoke by phone with Biden and reiterated this message.
On Dec. 7, McConnell told Zients that the negotiators had until Dec. 12 to reach an agreement so that legislation could be drafted in time for a Senate floor vote before the holidays. McConnell also spoke to Biden again.
On Dec. 12, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with senators, McConnell said it would be “practically impossible” for a deal to be voted on this year. It was that day that White House aides and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas began engaging in negotiations on the Hill with a bipartisan group of senators.
The pushback: McConnell’s influence on the situation may have been limited due to his party’s rising skepticism over aiding Ukraine — especially among former President Donald Trump and his allies in Congress.
In addition, the growing migrant crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border further animated McConnell’s right flank. This faction was never going to back Ukraine funding anyway.
Republicans argue, however, that the timeline shows that the White House dragged its feet until it was too late to secure a border compromise in time for the Senate to vote before the holiday recess.
This, of course, is to say nothing of the House GOP negotiating position, which boiled down to “H.R. 2 or bust.” That hardline border security bill remains a non-starter for Democrats, and it made things more difficult for Senate Republicans who wanted to get a deal. Speaker Mike Johnson reiterated this position to the other congressional leaders in early December.
Democratic negotiators said throughout November that the GOP proposals and subsequent counter-offers weren’t serious enough to reach a bipartisan agreement.
A White House official told us that with negotiations on issues as complicated as immigration, they believe it’s better to begin with small groups of senators to see if there’s a bipartisan path to a deal.
“Once the negotiations were ready for the White House, we jumped in and got actively engaged with Mayorkas and senior White House officials going up to the Hill every day,” the official added.
All of this backbiting will fade away if Republicans and Democratic negotiators secure a border and immigration policy deal over the Christmas break. They’re expected to meet nearly every day. If those talks collapse or a bill doesn’t pass, expect the griping to get louder — and much more public.
— Andrew Desiderio and Jake Sherman
CHINA COMMITTEE
China Select Committee report gets bipartisan pushback
News: Two members of the China select committee unveiled a “parallel opinion” to the panel’s final economic report, requesting more emphasis on trade and education as a way to shore up U.S. competitiveness with China.
Reps. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) and Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) wrote a “parallel opinion” that requests tougher positions on economic relations and called for more U.S. investments in manufacturing and scientific research.
The two lawmakers also said there should be new requirements to make CCP lobbying more transparent and urged the Biden administration to restrict the hugely popular social media app TikTok.
“We respectfully file this parallel opinion,” the lawmakers wrote. “It diverges from the industrial policy of the Strategy while emphasizing a subset of the report’s recommended legislation as beneficial and actionable.
Auchincloss opposed the final report in a voice vote, per a source familiar with it. Johnson ultimately backed it despite his concerns.
Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) also spoke out against the final report, per his office. Torres didn’t object during the voice vote.
The dissent is in response to the committee’s report titled “Reset, Prevent, Build: A Strategy to Win America’s Economic Competition with the Chinese Communist Party.” Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) chaired the select committee, with Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois serving as the top Democrat.
The panel’s report proposes roughly 150 policy solutions to shore up American competition with China, including potentially imposing more tariffs on select Chinese goods.
Auchincloss told us he wanted more recognition of U.S. competitiveness on issues like science and education, as advocated for in the CHIPS Act.
“The U.S. economy will outcompete China’s by emphasizing science, education, and a pro-growth business climate, not industrial policy,” Auchincloss told us.
Johnson said he didn’t view his parallel opinion with Auchincloss as opposition to the final report.
“I think the report is overall a good piece of work,” Johnson told us. ”But Jake and I did want to call for people’s attention that there are a subset of ideas we think are most important to prioritize.”
Allison Aprahamian, committee spokesperson, told us in a statement that Gallagher values members’ input and disagreement.
“The final report contains nearly 150 bipartisan recommendations,” Aprahamian told us. “While not every member agrees with every recommendation, the Chairman values their input. The Select Committee looks forward to working with all members to advance smart, bipartisan policy, and defend our national security and economic prosperity from the threat posed by the CCP.”
Of course, China has been one of the few bipartisan issues this Congress has found consensus on.
Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy pitched the committee back in January, with the support of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
Democrats and Republicans overwhelmingly supported the creation of the panel, which seeks to find solutions to counter Beijing’s influence on the world stage.
— Mica Soellner
THE CAMPAIGN
News: The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC is endorsing Delaware state Sen. Sarah McBride in the Democratic primary for the state’s House seat. If elected, McBride would be the first openly transgender member of Congress.
The seat opened up following Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester’s (D-Del.) decision to run for Senate. In heavily Democratic Delaware, victory in the Democratic primary almost assures success in the general election.
New: The NRCC is rolling out a festive-themed digital ad campaign tying vulnerable House Democrats to President Joe Biden’s economic plan.
“Bidenomics ruined Christmas,” the ads read in all caps, alongside an image of a Frontline Democrat wearing a Santa hat. Here’s an example of one of the ads, which urges voters to tell Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) to “stop supporting reckless government spending fueling inflation.”
The campaign is also targeting Democratic Reps. Josh Harder (Calif.), Jahana Hayes (Conn.), Eric Sorensen (Ill.), Frank Mrvan (Ind.), Sharice Davids (Kan.), Jared Golden (Maine), Angie Craig (Minn.), Marcy Kaptur (Ohio), Matt Cartwright (Pa.), Pat Ryan (N.Y.), Yadira Caraveo (Colo.), Susie Lee (Nev.) and Gabe Vasquez (N.M.).
The GOP messaging is the latest example of Republicans connecting Democratic lawmakers with “Bidenomics,” the White House’s branding on the economy. The moniker has been largely ignored by congressional Democrats. According to our surveys of Democratic staffers and K Street leaders, nearly half of these groups don’t believe “Bidenomics” is an effective campaign message for congressional Democrats.
Also: Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who is running for president, has an ad up in Boston and New Hampshire that criticizes President Joe Biden for stripping the Granite State of its first-in-the-nation primary status.
— Max Cohen and Jake Sherman
DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD
Booking Holdings, which owns Priceline.com, Kayak and Booking.com, has hired Hogan Lovells to lobby on “[o]nline travel and booking legislation and policies; data privacy and tech legislation and policies.” Former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) will lobby for Booking.
iheartMedia has hired Traction Strategic to lobby on “Legislative proposals and congressional oversight related to broadcast radio. Legislative proposals and congressional oversight related to music licensing / copyright. S. 1669 / H.R. 3413 ‘AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act’ S. Con. Res 5 / H. Con. Res. 13 ‘Local Radio Freedom Act’ S. 253 / H.R. 791 ‘American Music Fairness Act.’”
— Jake Sherman
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