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A big week for border talks

The ‘3 Johns’ and Trump

Vulnerable California Republican laments Johnson’s political chops

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A big week for border talks

Happy Monday morning.

The House is out of session this week, the Senate is in. This will be a huge week for senators and the White House on border security, immigration, Ukraine and Israel. So let’s get into it.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has queued up several nomination votes heading into the week, but that’s just the lead-in for the complex and politically loaded border security and immigration negotiations led by Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.) and Chris Murphy (D-Conn.).

There’s no deal yet between Lankford and Murphy. There’s no guarantee that there will be an agreement or that the Senate will vote this week on any such deal. That’s despite the optimistic prediction from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell the other day that something could emerge this week.

However, if there is an agreement between Lankford and Murphy — which would first require sign-off by Schumer, McConnell and the White House, of course — we’d expect the Senate to stay in session for as long as it takes to complete action on the measure. Meaning through the weekend or whatever it takes for a final vote. Allowing senators to go home could give opponents a chance to derail the proposal.

With the New Hampshire presidential primary on Tuesday, the pressure is growing to find something to pass before former President Donald Trump decides it’s in his best interest to sink a potential agreement. Speaker Mike Johnson also is expected to tear apart any Senate deal if he believes that boosts House Republicans.

There was a flurry of negotiations over the weekend, according to senators and leadership aides. Schumer spoke on multiple occasions with Murphy, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients and other key players in the negotiations. Republicans had a similar round-robin of internal calls, we’re told.

Again, if there is an agreement, don’t expect to see any text until Tuesday at the earliest, we’re told. It could be later.

And even if Lankford and Murphy reach a consensus on changes to parole and asylum policy, they still have to figure out the money side of the equation. What new resources would be needed to implement key policy changes and how these funds would be distributed is a highly sensitive issue.

Ukraine and Israel: Remember, these border security talks are designed in part to round up GOP support for President Joe Biden’s massive supplemental request for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region. Especially Ukraine. Biden sought more than $60 billion in new aid for Ukraine last fall, which Congress didn’t act on. Now there’s no more U.S. aid in the pipeline even as the war with Russia grinds on.

There’s still majority support in Congress for Ukraine funding thanks to Democrats and GOP hawks, but it’s unclear if a majority of House or Senate Republicans would back it.

So even with a border security plus immigration deal in hand, there’s no way lawmakers will greenlight Biden’s $60 billion request. The White House will have to narrow it to just military aid; financial or economic support for the Ukranians — as vital as it may be — won’t have any chance of passing.

There’s a special Senate GOP Conference meeting on Wednesday regarding Ukraine. There’s been enormous discussion of Ukraine among Senate Republicans for months, and opposition is growing among rank-and-file GOP senators over approving more support for the embattled U.S. ally. However, McConnell remains the most vocal Ukraine backer on Capitol Hill, and there is still significant Republican backing.

Israel funding is another complication. The House passed a $14 billion Israel aid bill shortly after the Oct. 7 attack, yet that didn’t go anywhere in the Senate because Johnson tied it to IRS spending cuts.

Now some Senate Democrats, appalled at the stunning number of Palestinian civilian deaths during Israel’s campaign against Hamas in Gaza, want to attach conditions to any new U.S. aid for Israel. But this won’t fly with Senate Republicans, so we’ll have to see how it plays out for Biden and Schumer.

Let’s sum all this up — even if there is a Lankford-Murphy deal on the border, there’s a lot more work to be done to turn this into a legislative package that can be approved by the Senate. And even if the Senate ultimately passes something, that doesn’t mean the House will, at least not in the same form. Trump’s growing momentum in the GOP presidential contest complicates everything, and Johnson has problems with hardline conservatives following last week’s CR vote. This is a very fluid situation, to say the least.

One more thing: House and Senate appropriators still haven’t reached a deal on spending levels for all 12 annual bills, despite passage of last week’s stopgap funding package that averts any shutdown until early March. Party leaders hope a deal on this is also possible this week, but there’s no certainty on this front either.

Lots of high hopes for the Senate this week but nothing is guaranteed. Because 2024!

— John Bresnahan

THE SENATE

The ‘3 Johns’ and Trump

A majority of the Senate Republican Conference has now endorsed Donald Trump’s comeback presidential bid.

But just one of the three potential successors to Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader is among them.

The “Three Johns,” as they’re known, are positioning themselves for the job in unique ways. Of course, McConnell could still decide to seek another term as party leader. But whoever wins the nod will need to work closely with Trump if he’s elected again — especially if Republicans win the Senate majority in November. It’s hard to see the 81-year-old McConnell, already the longest-serving party leader in Senate history, staying in that role if Trump is back in the Oval Office, so this issue becomes even more high-profile.

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), the No. 3 Senate Republican, endorsed Trump earlier this month, becoming the highest-ranking GOP senator to do so. Senate Minority Whip John Thune doubled down last week on his concerns about Trump’s viability in a general election. And Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who has cast similar doubt about Trump, said he’ll do “whatever it takes” to prevent President Joe Biden from winning a second term.

In general, Barrasso is viewed as the most conservative of the Three Johns. He’s had a close working relationship with Trump. Barrasso’s endorsement of Trump distinguishes him from Thune and Cornyn and puts him in a stronger position to succeed McConnell under a potential Trump presidency.

Thune initially endorsed Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) in the presidential race. When Scott dropped out, Thune said he didn’t have plans to make an endorsement in the near future. Of course, Thune has had a rough go of it with the former president. Trump tried to gin up a primary challenge to Thune after the South Dakota Republican criticized his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

We asked Thune whether it would be challenging to work with a future President Trump if he’s the Senate GOP leader.

“Whoever the people of this country elect — and if it’s President Trump – we will work with him. I’ve done that in the past. We had some big successes,” Thune told us, noting that Trump recognized him by name during a White House event celebrating the passage of the 2017 GOP tax bill.

“It’s gonna be up to the voters, but when they make their decision, we’ll take whatever outcome they give us and work with [him] for the good of the country,” added Thune, who’s seen by many GOP senators as the frontrunner to succeed McConnell.

After Trump won the Iowa caucuses, Thune reiterated his doubts about Trump’s ability to win a general election, noting that they’re won “in the middle of the electorate.”

“All of that has repercussions for Senate races, too,” Thune added. “If we want to get the majority, we need a strong showing at the top of the ticket that translates into some down-ballot success. So it’s all connected.”

Of course, many Senate Republicans believe Trump is the reason they lost winnable races in the 2020 and 2022 cycles. Count Thune and Cornyn in that camp.

But when asked if he’s still doubtful about Trump’s electability, Cornyn seemed to soften his position, saying: “He looks like he’s pretty well right now. And it looks like [President Joe] Biden is at a historic low.”

Cornyn was the GOP whip during the first two years of the Trump presidency when Republicans passed the tax bill that Trump heralds as one of his top achievements. This was also the period in which the Senate confirmed Trump’s first two Supreme Court picks, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh.

— Andrew Desiderio

INSIDE THE ROOM

Vulnerable California Republican laments Johnson’s political chops

Scoop: Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.), a vulnerable Republican facing a tough reelection contest, acknowledged on a private campaign call that Speaker Mike Johnson doesn’t have the same political chops as former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Endangered California Republicans were McCarthy’s closest allies, so this isn’t a huge shock. The former speaker showered the incumbents with cash and he was one of the foremost supporters of their reelection efforts. But it’s instructive to hear the candid thoughts on the effects of the speaker switch from a Republican incumbent running in a tough House seat.

Garcia told supporters and volunteers on an early January Zoom call that he thinks Johnson is “the right guy for the moment.”

“But politically he’s not the strong political campaigner and fundraiser that Kevin McCarthy was,” Garcia added. “And it was obviously an advantage to have the speaker of the House be your neighbor to the north.”

For what it’s worth, Johnson has exceeded expectations on the money front. The Louisiana Republican raised an impressive $10.6 million in the last quarter of 2023 and has been hitting the fundraising circuit hard.

But it’s true that McCarthy’s political instincts and knowledge of each battleground district were unparalleled. Undoubtedly, California members lost a major beneficiary with McCarthy’s ouster and subsequent retirement.

Garcia represents a district that President Joe Biden won by double digits in 2020. Garcia, however, has consistently beaten Democrats by highlighting his military background as an Air Force veteran.

This cycle, Garcia is facing a new Democratic challenger in the form of aerospace entrepreneur George Whitesides. California Democrats hope Whitesides will fare better than Christy Smith, who lost three straight elections to Garcia.

— Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

News: The DCCC is hitting House Republicans as “anti-abortion extremists” in a new digital ad that coincides with the 51st anniversary of the Roe v. Wade decision. The ad plays a clip of Fox News’ Kayleigh McEnany warning Republicans that the party continues to lose on abortion rights ballot initiatives.

Reps. Young Kim (R-Calif.), Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.) and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) are all singled out in the ad for their abortion stances. All three members represent districts President Joe Biden won in 2020.

Jeffries in California: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is in Southern California this morning as a special guest at a fundraiser for Will Rollins, the Democrat running against Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.).

Pennsylvania Senate race: David McCormick, the frontrunner in the Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary, will be in New Hampshire later today for an event on Dartmouth’s campus ahead of the state’s first-in-the-nation primary. The Pennsylvania Democratic Party is running a targeted digital ad in the area reminding GOP voters that in the 2022 Senate primary, former President Donald Trump wasn’t a fan of McCormick.

The spot plays a 2022 campaign speech where Trump — who backed Mehmet Oz — calls McCormick a “Wall Street Republican” who’s “not MAGA.” Oz won the Republican primary but lost to Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.).

The ad aims to create discord among the GOP base and stir up negative feelings toward McCormick.

“Donald Trump can’t trust David McCormick. Neither can we,” the ad concludes.

But there’s a surprising amount of unity within the Pennsylvania Republican Party this cycle, a massive boost for McCormick’s candidacy. Every Republican member of the Hill delegation endorsed McCormick last year and there’s been no far-right primary challenge from individuals such as state Sen. Doug Mastriano.

McCormick appears to have cleared the field and is poised to challenge Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) in November.

— Max Cohen

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