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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Johnson’s Ukraine dilemma
It’s Tuesday morning.
Breaking overnight: The Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore has collapsed after a Singapore-flagged ship struck the bridge. Officials are searching for possible victims, including from cars and trucks crossing the bridge at the time of its collapse. Read more from the Baltimore Banner and Baltimore Sun.
Johnson and Ukraine: In public and private over the last few weeks, Speaker Mike Johnson has told his lieutenants in the House Republican leadership that he intends to put a bill on the floor to send new U.S. aid to Ukraine.
Just on Friday, after the House cleared the $1.2 trillion FY2024 minibus spending package, Johnson declared “We will also take the necessary steps to address the supplemental funding request,” meaning the Senate-passed $60 billion Ukraine aid proposal. This comes as Ukrainian officials say they’re running out of ammunition — especially U.S.-supplied weapons — to fend off the renewed Russian onslaught.
What Johnson hasn’t said is how he intends to do that.
The mystery has roiled the House Republican leadership, where even Johnson’s close colleagues have limited insight into the Louisiana Republican’s thinking, what he’s planning and when he’s planning to do it.
But we spent a chunk of Monday trying to discern what options might be available to Johnson and what path he may take.
Officially, Team Johnson’s position is that the House GOP leadership is spending the recess having conversations with their members on the issue and they’ll return with a plan in early April. But here’s what the current thinking is across the leadership and senior member ranks:
1) The Senate bill. This is essentially a non-starter in the House GOP, so don’t expect the House to take it up. Regardless of what’s actually in the Senate bill, Johnson has already trashed the package. This comes despite the fact that it got 70 votes in the Senate and both Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Democratic leaders are publicly pressuring him to move on it.
2) His own plan. Johnson could take the Senate bill and tweak it. Senior House Republican sources tell us that whatever the House does has to closely mirror what the Senate did. It has to be similar enough that it can pass the Senate without triggering a back-and-forth between the two chambers. Perhaps that means tweaks to the way the aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan is structured. Maybe Johnson borrows the Lend-Lease formula for weapons sales to these critical U.S. allies. The initial U.S. aid package to Ukraine in 2022 included a Lend-Lease program that expired last year. Johnson has discussed linking Ukraine aid to overturning some of President Joe Biden’s energy policies, including the ban on new LNG export approvals.
The big question under this scenario is how Johnson would structure any votes. Does he split Israel from Ukraine and Taiwan? To pass Israel aid, Johnson would need humanitarian provisions for Palestinians in Gaza. Could the House Republican Conference stomach that?
3) Fitzpatrick’s bill. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) has been gathering signatures for a petition to discharge a bipartisan proposal that includes Ukraine funding. This plan is well thought out but also includes some border-security provisions that will alienate Democrats, including reinstatement of the “Remain in Mexico” policy for asylum seekers. Some backers of this plan — there are 16 signatories thus far — say that it’s the only proposal that can pass Republican muster in the House. Perhaps Johnson borrows elements of this proposal for his own bill?
4) Discharge petition. There are two discharge petitions — the aforementioned Fitzpatrick effort and a House Democratic plan to bring the Senate bill to the floor. The Democrats’ petition has a whopping 191 signatures. All are Democrats except for the now former Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.). Johnson could take the easy way out and just set rank-and-file Republicans free to sign one of these.
This would, however, be an abdication of his control of the floor. Willingly handing such control over to the minority is an effective admission that you can’t manage the House.
But we are in uncharted territory here. Johnson has a two-vote cushion — soon to be one vote — and a divided conference, so he has to govern far differently than previous GOP speakers.
Then there’s the obvious question — will House Republican critics move against him if he green-lights Ukraine aid? The answer is probably yes. Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has also offered a motion to vacate the chair following the House vote on the minibus package. Moving on a Ukraine aid bill is certain to set off conservatives.
Senior House Democratic sources tell us that the minority would help him remain speaker under this scenario — if Johnson accepts that support.
But we really doubt that it’s sustainable to remain as a Republican speaker propped up by Democrats.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
Reminder: Join Punchbowl News founder Anna Palmer and managing editor Heather Caygle for The Summit: The Future of Rural Health Care on Tuesday, April 9, at 9 a.m. ET. They’ll moderate conversations that explore access to health care in rural communities.
The half-day event will feature a one-on-one interview with Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.), a panel conversation with health care industry leaders and a fireside chat about patient access to quality care. RSVP!
PRESENTED BY META
The world faces a shortage of skilled tradespeople.
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Making quality training more accessible helps combat a global shortage of welders.
GOP LEADER RACE
What are Thune and Cornyn up to this month?
The Senate GOP leadership elections are still eight months away, but congressional recesses are a good time for the candidates to focus on fundraising — a critical element of the GOP leader job.
Senate Minority Whip John Thune and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who are vying to succeed Mitch McConnell, are using the time away from Washington to play up their fundraising chops.
It serves a dual purpose, allowing them to also make their case to non-incumbents who, if they win their races, will have a vote in the leadership races in late November. This is especially important given that the Senate map is very favorable to Republicans, meaning whoever wins the top job could very well be the majority leader come January 2025.
Thune: The current No. 2 in the Senate GOP leadership will be busy over the recess, campaigning for several candidates and incumbents, according to a person familiar with the South Dakotan’s political operation.
→ | Thune is planning to do events in Nebraska for the state’s incumbent Republican senators, Deb Fischer and Pete Ricketts. Both are on the ballot in November because Ricketts was appointed to his seat after Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) resigned, and he’ll need to win a special election in order to complete Sasse’s term. |
→ | Immediately upon returning to Washington, Thune is appearing at an event with former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who’s running for Senate in the deep-blue state. Recent polls have shown that Hogan, a popular two-term governor, has the ability to make this a close race. |
→ | In recent days, Thune has traveled to Philadelphia to campaign with Dave McCormick, the NRSC-backed candidate challenging incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.). Thune also spoke remotely at an event for Eric Hovde, who’s challenging Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.). |
More fundraising trips to various states over the next two weeks are in the planning stages, we’re told.
Thune has closely coordinated his efforts with the NRSC, and he has $17 million in his reelection campaign account. Thune once transferred $2 million from that account to the NRSC — the largest single transfer in the Senate GOP campaign arm’s history. The South Dakota Republican has also done more than 200 events this cycle for candidates, incumbents and the NRSC.
We reported last week that Thune’s outside operation has added some heft, with Johnny DeStefano now running a C4 linked to Thune.
Cornyn: The Texas Republican, who spent six years as the No. 2 Senate Republican before he was term-limited out, hails from a large state with a wealthy base of Republican donors, giving him a unique advantage on the fundraising front.
A person familiar with Cornyn’s political operation said he’ll spend the recess “crisscrossing Texas and the country to help his Republican colleagues and candidates.” They did not give details of Cornyn’s travels.
Cornyn has been aggressive on the fundraising front in recent years, forming his own joint fundraising committee in 2021. Last cycle, Cornyn raised $20 million, which was the most of any GOP senator aside from the leader and the NRSC chair.
As of late February, Cornyn had raised $13 million in the 2024 cycle.
— Andrew Desiderio
Weekday mornings, The Daily Punch brings you inside Capitol Hill, the White House, and Washington.
THE AI IMPACT
Exploring the impact and promises of AI
Artificial intelligence is rapidly evolving and revolutionizing the way business and everyday tasks are conducted. That’s why over the next two months we’ll dig into the way different industries and the government are embracing the technology with a new project — The AI Impact, presented by Google.
With new segments every two weeks, we’ll look at how policymakers are working to come up with a regulatory framework that balances the need to minimize AI’s worst effects without stifling innovation. We’ll also preview the policy pipeline for AI across the board.
In our first segment, we delve into the way the federal government views AI as integral to national defense, particularly on cybersecurity. While the U.S. intelligence community is concerned about the threat of adversaries using AI to target the country, it can also be a critical tool in countering those attacks and bolstering preparedness across federal agencies.
We also feature an interview with Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.), the only member of Congress with an advanced degree in AI and the co-chair of the House’s AI task force. Obernolte explained how government agencies can use the technology to harden their cyber defenses and how Congress can approach the issue.
Read more from our first installment here.
— Elvina Nawaguna
PRESENTED BY META
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
News: New Dems seek AI assurances from White House
The leaders of the New Democrat Coalition’s artificial intelligence working group are publicly backing the White House’s latest AI executive order.
In a new letter, Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) and Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.) are also requesting information from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy on how the executive order’s priorities are being implemented.
Stevens and Kilmer said in a statement that they want to ensure “the responsible development and deployment of artificial intelligence.” The letter, signed by 38 other New Dems, seeks assurances that the White House is coordinating interagency AI regulation, prioritizing diversity and focusing on reskilling and upskilling American workers.
The letter is a good sense of where most Democrats are on the issue of AI. For much more on all things AI, check out our new special project page here.
— Max Cohen
… AND THERE’S MORE
Also: Ruthless, the popular Republican podcast, has a new 25-minute segment on TPUSA. TPUSA is looking to stymie the RNC’s early voting effort in favor of day-of-election voting. Josh Holmes tears into them.
The Campaign: VoteVets Action Fund is rolling out a series of ad buys today focusing on Ukraine, targeting seven House GOP lawmakers by name with spots running in their districts.
The progressive group is putting $530,000 behind the two-week effort, which calls on House Republicans to back a discharge petition that would allow a vote on the Senate-passed national security supplemental funding bill.
The ads will be run on both broadcast and cable — the latter of which will be focused almost exclusively on Fox News’ morning show, “Fox and Friends.”
Here are the members being targeted, and the dollar amount behind each:
→ | Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.): $98,500 |
→ | Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.): $130,000 |
→ | David Valadao (R-Calif.) and John Duarte (R-Calif.), who represent the same media market in Fresno: $68,400 |
→ | Jen Kiggans (R-Va.): $105,000 |
→ | Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.): $93,900 |
→ | Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.): $28,600 |
Here’s one of the ads:
Florida endorsement: EMILYs List is endorsing Lucia Baez-Geller in Florida’s 27th District. Baez-Geller is challenging GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar.
Downtown download: Porterfield, Fettig & Sears has a new partner. Bryan Blom has been promoted to PFS management, the firm announced this week. Blom previously worked as a senior staffer on the Senate Banking Committee under former Sens. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) and Mike Johanns (R-Neb.).
— Andrew Desiderio, Max Cohen and Brendan Pedersen
PRESENTED BY META
MOMENTS
ALL TIMES EASTERN
9 a.m.
President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing … The House will meet in a pro forma session.
12:30 p.m.
Biden will depart the White House en route to Raleigh, N.C. Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre will gaggle aboard Air Force One.
1:55 p.m.
Biden will arrive in Raleigh.
3 p.m.
Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will deliver remarks.
5:30 p.m.
Biden and Harris will participate in a campaign reception.
6:50 p.m.
Biden will depart Raleigh en route to the White House, arriving at 8:15 p.m.
CLIPS
NYT
“Trump Isn’t Reaching Out to Haley and Her Voters. Will It Matter?”
– Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman
Bloomberg
“US CEOs Extend China Stay After Last-Minute Invite to Meet Xi”
– Bloomberg News
AP
“Japan approves plan to sell fighter jets to other nations in latest break from pacifist principles”
– Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo
PRESENTED BY META
“The more muscle memory that you have, the smoother your weld is.”
Shanna Ford gets high-quality welding practice with a VR training platform powered by ForgeFX.
When training is more accessible, welders can practice over and over again to improve their skills and advance their careers.
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
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