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THE TOP
A shutdown and SOTU week on deck for Congress

Happy Monday morning.
Congress will have a busy week trying to avoid a partial government shutdown at midnight Friday (FYI, there won’t be a shutdown) while President Joe Biden gives what will be a hugely important State of the Union address for the 81-year-old incumbent on Thursday.
There’s also Super Tuesday, which will pretty much cement former President Donald Trump’s stranglehold on the GOP nomination. Voters in 16 states and one territory head to the polls on the most important day of the primary so far.
Government Funding: House and Senate leaders unveiled a six-bill, $435 billion package (more with side deals) on Sunday afternoon. The text of the 1,050-page bill is here, and you can read summaries from both sides here, here and here. Here’s the list of earmarks.
The current plan is for this massive bill to be voted on Wednesday in the House, with the Senate to follow. As per usual, everything is tentative during this Congress, so stay tuned.
We don’t anticipate significant problems in the House at this point despite this package being taken up under suspension, meaning it needs a two-thirds majority to pass. The overwhelming majority of Democrats will vote for the package, which is the beginning of the end to more than five months of FY2024 funding drama. The real issue is how many House Republicans back it. Can Speaker Mike Johnson get a majority of the majority to vote for the package, and what happens if he doesn’t?
Overall, this bill is basically a spending freeze with some cuts. Veterans’ spending gets a big boost, one of the few areas that did. Democratic leaders pushed to add another $1 billion for the WIC program — which they got — and tried to protect their environmental and social spending from GOP riders.
With only a two-vote majority — meaning Johnson needs Democrats to pass anything — and working off a deal his predecessor cut, the speaker did about as well as he could, even though it took forever to get there. Republicans’ culture war provisions got dropped mostly, although there are some GOP wins. Conservatives will oppose this measure loudly, and there’ll be some rumbling about Johnson’s future, but he should be ok.
“House Republicans secured key conservative policy victories, rejected left-wing proposals, and imposed sharp cuts to agencies and programs critical to President Biden’s agenda,” Johnson said in a statement.
Yet some of the cuts Johnson is claiming aren’t quite as dramatic as they appear to be at first glance. They’re cuts, just not huge cuts.
For instance, House Republicans assert they cut the FBI’s budget by 7%. Yet the vast majority of that cut is because former Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) earmarked more than $600 million for an FBI building in Alabama the year before. Shelby isn’t around anymore, of course.
The FBI will get $32 million less for salaries and personnel than it did in FY2023 on a $10.6 billion budget, according to Democrats.
On EPA, House Republicans are taking credit for a 10% cut in funding. Congress appropriated $977 million less for EPA this year than was enacted in FY2023, chiefly because Superfund money is being slashed. That’s a big hit on a $9.1 billion budget.
However, EPA will get a bunch of money for the Superfund program out of the 2021 infrastructure law and the Inflation Reduction Act. Superfund spending actually goes up by nearly $1.8 billion.
Both sides are spinning hard here. This is a compromise bill that no one loves but which both sides can live with — mostly.
Ukraine aid: Publicly, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his lieutenants continue to insist the House should take up the $95 billion Senate-passed foreign aid bill for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific.
But with two discharge petitions readying for signatures this week — one from Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), the other from Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) — Democratic leaders are moving cautiously here.
Remember, Fitzpatrick and Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) introduced a $66 billion foreign aid bill last month that includes tens of billions of dollars for Ukraine.
But the proposal also includes some border security provisions that are controversial among Democrats, including the “Remain in Mexico” policy. Meanwhile, many House Republicans — including Johnson — say they can’t support a Ukraine aid bill without border-related language.
Behind the scenes, Jeffries has been working quietly to find a solution that won’t enrage Hispanic and progressive members of his caucus while getting Ukraine the aid it desperately needs. Jeffries privately met with members including Fitzpatrick and Reps. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) and Mike Turner (R-Ohio) at the Munich Security Conference last month to discuss Ukraine aid.
And here’s some news: Jeffries told Johnson during the White House meeting last week that Democrats would help both in the Rules Committee and on the House floor to pass a rule if the speaker would put the Senate-passed aid bill on the floor.
A source familiar with the situation said, “The speaker ignored the remark.”
In the end, this all comes down to trust, which is in short supply in the Capitol right now. Can Democratic leadership work with Republican Ukraine hawks on a discharge petition that would force Johnson’s hand? Is there any way Johnson and House GOP leaders seek a deal with Democrats on this?
— John Bresnahan, Jake Sherman, Heather Caygle and Andrew Desiderio
Reminder: There’s still time to join us for an interview Gov. Brian Kemp (R-Ga.) on Tuesday, March 5 at 9 a.m. ET. We’re discussing the news of the day and how private equity supports small business and jobs in Georgia. RSVP!
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THE SENATE
Conservatives plot their moves in Senate leadership race
The anti-Mitch McConnell, hardline conservative faction remains a minority in the Senate Republican Conference. But they’ll have an outsized role in determining who becomes the next Senate GOP leader.
That’s because former President Donald Trump will very likely wade into the race, especially if he wins the presidency in November. Trump’s influence is just one factor that will drive how this group votes. They’ll need to unite around a candidate if they have any hope of installing one of their own as GOP leader.
Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), Trump’s closest Senate ally, said it’s too early to make a judgment because it remains unclear who is running for the job. But Vance specifically named Senate GOP Conference Chair John Barrasso when asked about possible successors.
“John Barrasso is certainly one of the leadership candidates who cares a lot, I think, about where the broader conservative movement is,” Vance said. “But I don’t know that he actually wants to run.”
Barrasso is viewed as the most conservative member of the current GOP leadership team, but he hasn’t officially said whether he’s jumping into the race. He could also seek the No. 2 job.
Other conservatives have named Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who challenged McConnell unsuccessfully in November 2022. Scott has been noncommittal thus far and is considered a longshot.
Conservatives’ first missive in the leadership race was a request to hold a conference-wide meeting later this month focused on their “direction” as a group. They want to agree on a blueprint for the next Republican leader that can be used to compare the various candidates once they all emerge.
“The first step of this is to decide — how do we want to be managed and what do we want to accomplish?” Scott said.
Will McConnell leave before November? The outgoing Senate minority leader could move to head off Trump’s influence on his successor if he steps down from his role before November, ensuring that the race takes place before the presidential race is over.
Conservatives aren’t thinking about it that way just yet, and McConnell has said he’s staying put. Instead, conservatives are suggesting that McConnell can’t adequately fulfill his job duties — including fundraising for the party’s candidates — as a “lame-duck” leader.
“I do have concerns about a lame-duck session for six or eight months, including just raising money for the party,” Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) said. “There could be an election sooner… We’ll see how things go.”
“If you have the leadership field set and you have a majority of us coalesce around a candidate, then I think it makes no sense to wait [until November],” added Vance.
Of course, the news of McConnell’s decision to step down at the end of this Congress is still fresh, and the field of candidates to replace him isn’t yet set. Only Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) has officially jumped into the race to succeed him. Senate Minority Whip John Thune is expected to follow soon.
“We’re going to be weeks and months into this before we can assess anyone’s campaigns,” said Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), who isn’t a part of the anti-McConnell wing.
— Andrew Desiderio
THE CANVASS CAPITOL HILL
A bipartisan majority of Hill aides doubt Johnson’s effectiveness as speaker

Three-quarters of senior Hill staffers say Speaker Mike Johnson is ineffective in his role, according to our recent survey, The Canvass Capitol Hill.
In all, 58% of Republicans and, unsurprisingly, 91% of Democrats were doubtful of Johnson’s ability to lead the House.
When we polled K Street leaders on the same issue in January, the numbers were better for Johnson, with 56% of Democratic downtowners and 25% of Republicans saying he was ineffective.
The survey results come as Johnson is facing multiple crucial challenges, including government funding and whether to send aid to Ukraine. Congress will move this week on the first six FY2024 funding bills. But the remaining six bills — which need to be adopted by March 22 — are more complicated.
Much like his predecessor, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Johnson has struggled to appease his unruly right flank. Plus, Johnson has very little room to maneuver on votes now that the House GOP majority has shrunk to 219 members.
Still, there is a silver lining for the speaker. Unlike McCarthy, most senior Hill staffers (57%) think Johnson will keep his job as speaker through the end of this Congress.
The Canvass Capitol Hill was conducted Feb. 5-23 in partnership with independent public affairs firm LSG.
Want to take part in The Canvass? Our survey provides anonymous monthly insights from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues facing Washington. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.
— Donna Baeck
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What we’re watching
Tuesday: The House Rules Committee will meet on the Laken Riley Act and the Expanding Access to Capital Act.
Wednesday: Fed Chair Jay Powell will testify in front of the House Financial Services Committee.
Thursday: The Committee on Weaponization of the Federal Government will meet. The Senate Armed Services Committee will hold a hearing on the “Posture of U.S. Central Command and U.S. Africa Command” heading into the FY2025 NDAA. Marine Corps General Michael Langley, commander of U.S. Africa Command, and Army General Michael Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command, will testify.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
You Might’ve Missed
MOMENTS
BIDEN’S WEEK AHEAD
TUESDAY
President Joe Biden will return to the White House from Camp David and convene a meeting of his Competition Council to “discuss lowering costs for hardworking families.”
THURSDAY
Biden will give his State of the Union address to Congress.
FRIDAY
Biden and First Lady Jill Biden will travel to the Philadelphia area. President Biden will deliver remarks at a campaign event there.
SATURDAY
The Bidens will travel to the Atlanta area, where President Biden will deliver remarks at a campaign event.
CLIPS
NYT
“Supreme Court Poised to Rule on Monday on Trump’s Eligibility to Hold Office”
– Adam Liptak
AP
“Harris is to meet with Israeli Cabinet official who is in Washington despite Netanyahu’s rebuke”
– Aamer Madhani and Seung Min Kim
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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.

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