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March 5, 2024
Presented by Americans for Prosperity
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act delivered $1,500 yearly to families, boosting growth, wages, and jobs. Letting it expire could mean higher taxes and lost progress. Congress: Renew the TCJA to protect families, businesses, and prosperity for all.
PRESENTED BY
THE INTERVIEWS
Peters and Daines on the fight for Senate control
Sens. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) and Steve Daines (R-Mont.) are in a grueling battle for control of the Senate. We asked the leaders of the dueling campaign committees — the DSCC and the NRSC — for their thoughts on three burning questions about the 2024 cycle.
Democrats have to defend two seats in deep-red Montana and Ohio while protecting multiple incumbents in presidential battleground states. They are also pursuing tough challenges to Sens. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas).
For Republicans, a Senate majority appears within reach. They need to flip one to two seats, depending on who is in the White House. And West Virginia is a near lock for the GOP with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) retiring.
Here’s what Peters and Daines — now a potential contender for Senate GOP leadership — had to say about the campaign. The interviews have been edited for clarity.
Q: What dynamics are political prognosticators getting wrong about 2024?
Peters: In ‘22, we had a very tough election and yet we performed very well — in fact, beat all expectations. And I expect the same to happen in ‘24. And many of the same dynamics that we had in ‘22 exist again.
First and foremost is candidate quality. I’m protecting … Democratic incumbents who are highly skilled, doing a great job representing their states and have a proven track record of winning in a tougher environment. And they’re going to be facing challengers who have a number of significant flaws.
Daines: Republicans are preparing to aggressively fight back against Democrats’ abortion lies this cycle. We will clearly state our support for exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother.
Republicans will also largely support reasonable guardrails on late-term abortions and aggressively contrast that position with Democrats’ support for no limits whatsoever on taxpayer-funded abortion up until the moment before birth.
Q: How do you think the presidential candidates at the top of the ticket will affect your incumbents?
Peters: I think being in a presidential race will help us in terms of turnout, and one of the challenges you have in the midterm is turnout. That’s not going to be as much of an issue for us in a presidential year. And the one thing that we have seen time and time again is having Donald Trump on the ticket really drives out Democratic turnout in a significant way.
Daines: President Trump being at the top of the ticket is Democrats’ worst nightmare. He brings out low-propensity voters at a level no other candidate does. He leads Joe Biden in every key swing state right now. To say nothing of West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.
Q: What state do you think will surprise people the most in November?
Peters: I think we have a real, real opportunity in both Texas and Florida. We have excellent candidates in those two states that are building strong campaigns. In fact, they’re out-raising the incumbents in those states. I think those are our two pickups and when we’re successful, people will be talking about it.
Daines: I think we’ve got a lot of states that may surprise people. But Michigan is a state where I think Biden is in big trouble. It’s an open seat and Mike Rogers is an outstanding candidate.
— Max Cohen and Andrew Desiderio
HOUSE WATCH
Why California is key to the next Congress
It’s primary day in the Golden State. And we think even more than New York, it’s the place you should be watching for control of the House next year.
Democrats are targeting the five California House Republicans who represent districts won by President Joe Biden. And California’s unique primary system — where the top two vote-getters in the state advance to the general election — makes it even more interesting.
The top four storylines to watch:
Valadao’s MAGA challenge
One of the most endangered Republican incumbents, Rep. David Valadao, is facing a GOP challenge from repeat MAGA candidate Chris Mathys. Mathys is campaigning against Valadao’s vote to impeach former President Donald Trump in 2021. Last cycle, Mathys came within thousands of votes of knocking off Valadao.
Republicans agree that if Valadao doesn’t advance to the general, there’s no chance the party can hang on to the Democratic-leaning seat, which Biden won by double digits in 2020. So the Congressional Leadership Fund is parachuting in with television ads to bash Mathys.
The Trump factor
Republicans in other tough seats — like Reps. John Duarte, Young Kim, Michelle Steel, Mike Garcia and Ken Calvert — also have to walk a fine line in November. Other than Calvert, each incumbent is in a district Biden won, presenting them with a two-pronged challenge.
“People hate Trump. And if you’re a Republican, you can’t excite the base if you don’t hug up on him,” Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) told us. “And you can’t keep the independents if you do hug up on him.”
Duarte, Garcia and Calvert have all indicated they will back former President Donald Trump. The other vulnerable members are keeping their distance and staying quiet in public.
The Senate battle
Most polls show Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) as the frontrunner in the primary. He’s won key endorsements from former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar.
Democratic Reps. Barbara Lee and Katie Porter are dueling for second place. But there’s also the wild card – Republican Steve Garvey crashing the party and sneaking into the general. Privately, some Democrats are hoping it’ll be Schiff v. Garvey in November.
The rematches
Valadao, Calvert and Duarte could all face rematches against the same Democrats they beat in 2022.
“Bring it on,” Duarte told us about a potential rematch with Adam Gray. Duarte argues he’s made inroads with minority communities in his district during his first term.
The DCCC is heavily backing Rudy Salas in Valadao’s district and is already running joint ads with the candidate early in the cycle. In Calvert’s district, Democrat Will Rollins is outraising the incumbent. This is another top target for the DCCC, despite Trump winning the seat in 2020.
The GOP sees the rematches as boons for their incumbents. NRCC spokesperson Ben Petersen even labeled the challengers “failed retread candidates.”
— Max Cohen and Mica Soellner
PRESENTED BY THE COALITION TO PROTECT AMERICAN JOBS
It’s time for the IRS to stand with small businesses. Tap here to learn more and support small businesses.
THE CANVASS
Capitol Hill, K Street are pessimistic about Trump’s chances of winning
Washington is doubtful former President Donald Trump will return to the White House after the November election.
Our surveys of K Street in January and Capitol Hill in February found little confidence in Trump as the party’s presidential candidate. Just 11% of K Street Republicans and 28% of top congressional GOP staffers said Trump was the party’s best choice.
Downtowners and top Hill staffers weren’t much more optimistic when asked about Trump’s chances of defeating President Joe Biden.
Just one-third of congressional respondents believe Trump will win. On K Street, 64% of respondents believe Biden will win reelection this year.
Defying Washington: Trump, of course, has an uncanny ability to defy all reasonable political gravity. He remains popular across the nation despite his endless legal battles. He is head-to-head with Biden in most national polls.
Trump is also gaining public support on Capitol Hill, despite some GOP lawmakers’ private reservations. The controversial former president has snagged the endorsements of every top Republican leader in the House and most Senate GOP leaders.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who announced last week he would step down from his leadership role later this year, has wrestled with whether to endorse Trump.
Biden’s problems: Biden is also wobbling in his quest for reelection. He’s had stubbornly low polling numbers and is bleeding support among young voters.
Biden’s handling of the southern border and the Israel-Hamas war have also put him in a tight spot. On Capitol Hill, 60% of Canvass respondents said the lawmaker they work for disapproves of Biden’s handling of the border crisis.
Nearly two-thirds of both Republican and Democratic respondents said Biden’s response to the Israel-Hamas war will harm his chances of winning in November. Only 7% said the issue would help the president.
— Mica Soellner
PRESENTED BY THE COALITION TO PROTECT AMERICAN JOBS
Over 1 million businesses are waiting for the IRS to process their ERC claim
Years after Congress reenacted the ERC as a lifeline for businesses crushed by the pandemic, the IRS has unilaterally halted implementation of the program. Over one million job creators are waiting in limbo as their claims remain in backlog. With over 78,000 employees at their disposal, the IRS has no excuse to not deliver promised relief to job creators who kept their doors open and workers on the payroll during the pandemic. The IRS shouldn’t turn its back on small businesses who are the backbone of the American economy. It’s time for the IRS to do its job. Take action now.
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Presented by Americans for Prosperity
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act gave families $1,500 yearly, boosted small businesses, and strengthened U.S. competitiveness. Allowing it to expire would jeopardize this progress. Congress: Renew the TCJA to secure growth and prosperity for all.