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March 7, 2024
Punchbowl News Presents
Introducing Tech – our newest policy vertical. From high-profile interviews with industry influencers & policymakers to key lobbying updates, Punchbowl News Tech will be your go-to for timely technology insights.
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
The state of Biden’s union
Happy Thursday morning.
Few traditions in U.S. politics have endured like the State of the Union.
Tens of millions of Americans will tune in tonight to see President Joe Biden address a divided Congress and nation just months before the general election. Biden has made clear — most recently in a lengthy profile in The New Yorker — that he thinks he’s the only Democrat who can beat former President Donald Trump. And Biden believes he has more work to do to build on his legislative record.
Tonight he’ll have the chance to lay out what that looks like.
This is Biden’s final State of the Union before Election Day, and he’ll deliver it against a rough political backdrop.
| → | Biden’s approval rating is 38%. A New York Times/Siena poll has him trailing Trump by five points. A majority of Biden’s 2020 voters say he’s too old to be an effective president. The U.S. economy is strong — Biden’s biggest plus — but he’s not getting credit for that. |
| → | The geopolitical landscape is a mess. Israel’s brutal military campaign in Gaza continues even as the threat of a wider conflict grows. White House officials and Democratic lawmakers are increasingly upset over the scale of Palestinian casualties. Ukraine is losing ground in its war with Russia. Congress hasn’t passed aid to either Israel or Ukraine. |
| → | Even though inflation is abating, prices are uncomfortably high. The migrant crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border is ongoing. China continues to dramatically boost its military spending, posing a threat to Taiwan and other U.S. allies. |
State of the Union addresses always have some element of surprise to them, an announcement we didn’t see coming or a guest we didn’t expect. But the White House has widely telegraphed the themes of this year’s speech.
Here’s White House Communications Director Ben LaBolt:
In one major respect, the State of the Union has changed drastically during the last decade. This used to be a formal, very staid affair. Not anymore. Now it’s akin to a sporting event with each side loudly applauding for its priorities. Some Republicans stand on their chairs and howl at Biden. Lots of members of the GOP will opt out of attending. This is definitely not your parents’ State of the Union address.
So let’s dive into Punchbowl News’ special State of the Union edition. Enjoy, and please get in touch with any questions or comments.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
1600 PENN AVE
The view from the West Wing
We had the chance to chat with White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients on Wednesday. Zients talked about the White House’s goals for tonight, the Trump factor and the fate of foreign aid in Congress.
Here are the highlights from our conversation:
The SOTU speech: President Joe Biden and Democratic leaders have spent much of the last year touting accomplishments from the 117th Congress when they had full control of the White House and Capitol Hill. But Zients signaled Biden will focus tonight more on what he wants to do — unofficially laying out a plan for a second term.
“The president’s vision for the future is very optimistic and builds on all the progress we’ve made across the last few years,” Zients told us. “I think we just need to get that message out.”
More Zients:
Breaking through to the public: Zients noted that Biden and an array of Cabinet members will all hit the road following the SOTU, which has become standard operating procedure for the White House in recent years.
Biden is heading this week to Pennsylvania and Georgia — two key swing states — while Cabinet officials will make stops in nearly a dozen states over the next few weeks, including Arizona, Michigan and North Carolina.
Vice President Kamala Harris will keep up a busy travel schedule as well. Harris will head to Arizona and Nevada soon, part of her outreach to key demographic groups that she and Biden will need in November.
In addition to Biden’s speech, senior White House officials are planning to do several local TV and radio interviews — an effort to get their message out to swing-state voters — plus meetings with “influencers and digital media publishers.” There will be Hispanic radio programming live from the White House today, too.
On former President Donald Trump: This week, the Biden campaign is targeting Trump as “wounded, dangerous and unpopular.” We asked Zients how much Trump would factor into tonight’s address. Zients was careful in his response, saying he was speaking from the White House and couldn’t engage in campaign activities. Zients still took an indirect shot at Trump, however.
“There is a contrast versus some Republicans in how the president wants to lead the country and will continue to lead the country and that will be evident,” Zients said. “But tomorrow is about governing and the state of our union and the vision for the future.”
Foreign policy: Zients indicated that Biden will push hard for Congress to pass billions of dollars in new aid for Israel and Ukraine.
The Senate approved a $95 billion foreign aid package three weeks ago, but Speaker Mike Johnson and House GOP leaders haven’t taken any action yet. And there’s a growing anti-Ukrainian sentiment inside the Republican Conference, despite the dire situation the embattled U.S. ally is currently facing.
“This needs to come to the floor and let the will of the people express itself,” Zients asserted. “And we will have the aid that Ukraine, Israel and the Palestinian people need.”
— Heather Caygle, John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman
THE GOP
Inside the Republican response
Last year, Republicans yelled and booed during President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address. Here’s how the party is approaching the speech in 2024.
The GOP leadership: Typically, the person tasked with giving the official GOP response is viewed as an effective communicator and a rising star within the party.
This time around, it’s Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.). As a member of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s leadership team and an appropriator, Britt fits this bill. A freshman, she’s also well-respected among Democrats and has several close cross-aisle friendships.
Every year, there are questions about the utility of the SOTU response, and whether it actually can catapult the person chosen to deliver it. Sometimes it’s disastrous. Other times it works. Look at 2021, for instance, when Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) gave the GOP response and became a national figure.
In our conversations with Britt, she emphasized the need for Republicans to focus more on the plight of younger Americans. Britt, who’s only 42 years old, nodded to this by saying it was time for the “next generation” to lead the way.
“President Biden is out of touch and off the pace, and the consequences are endangering America’s future,” Britt told us. “The Republican Party is the party of hardworking parents and families, and I’m looking forward to sharing our positive vision to secure the American Dream for generations to come.”
The pragmatists: Weeks after Republicans rejected a bipartisan border bill, GOP centrists told us time and again they want to hear Biden address the chaos at the southern border.
“Obviously border security is the number one issue for the country, as it is for my district,” Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), a member in a Biden-won seat, told us. “So it seems he needs to do something on that. Will he, or will it be lip service?”
Biden is sure to chide Republicans for heeding the call of former President Donald Trump and killing the Senate package. But that isn’t dissuading Republicans from demanding action.
“I want to hear that he’s going to enforce the law on the border. Bottom line,” Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) said.
A group of House Republicans and Democratic centrists introduced a compromise bill pairing foreign aid with border security. One of the package’s cosponsors, Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), said she wants the president to mention that bill as a way to break the logjam.
The flamethrowers: Some House Freedom Caucus members told us they were on the fence about even attending the speech. A couple of hardliners also made snarky comments about Biden’s mental acuity.
“He can’t read from a teleprompter,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) told us.
Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), who floated that the GOP should disinvite Biden to the Hill, said “of course” he was planning to attend, though he has low expectations. “I expect him to come and blame all the problems that he’s created on other people,” Perry added.
Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) noted that if House conservatives do show up, Biden can expect some disruption during his speech.
“Does a Baptist church got a bus?” Burchett responded when we asked about this.
— Andrew Desiderio, Max Cohen and Mica Soellner
PRESENTED BY THE AMERICAN CANCER SOCIETY CANCER ACTION NETWORK
Early cancer detection gave Carrie more time. Multi-cancer early detection tests can potentially transform early cancer detection by screening for dozens of cancers with a simple blood test. Congress: Pass H.R. 2407 and S. 2085 to provide a pathway to access in Medicare once FDA-approved and clinical benefit is shown.
REAL TALK
The text and the subtext of Biden’s SOTU
There’s one thing we know for sure about this year’s State of the Union address. You’re going to hear President Joe Biden say a lot of things.
And while POTUS is known for gaffes — whether that’s a head of state switcheroo or something more revealing — the State of the Union is always one of the White House’s most carefully scripted pieces of political rhetoric.
We have a pretty good idea of what Biden will say tonight. Let’s unpack what he actually means.
The economy:
What Biden says: The president is working hard to embrace the economy. At the February dinner with the National Governors Association, Biden said: “It’s clear we have the strongest economy in the world.” Biden loves highlighting the latest jobs numbers, improvements in wage growth and progress made against inflation.
Translation: The White House is hoping voters will start to feel these good numbers and respond with something resembling electoral support. It hasn’t happened yet. Inflation has taken a real toll on Americans.
But consumer sentiment has been picking up since November. “Folks are starting to feel it,” Biden said. “Positive consumer sentiment surged 30 percent in the last three months, the biggest jump in 30 years.”
The border:
What Biden says: Biden traveled to the border last week and hammered congressional Republicans for killing the bipartisan border security deal. The president implored Republicans to “put politics aside” and “show a little spine” to address an issue they have long complained about. Biden will undoubtedly touch on the same themes tonight.
Translation: Biden is talking about former President Donald Trump here. After Trump came out against the bipartisan deal, GOP lawmakers quickly followed suit. Republicans, as expected, say Biden could use executive orders to start to stem the flow of migrants at the border.
Biden is also nodding to voters’ broader concerns about immigration and the border. The president is limited in what he can do without Congress, so this is his effort to convey to voters that he’s at least trying.
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said he hopes Biden “knocks Republicans in the teeth,” adding Democrats should go on offense over the border.
“They just can’t continue to get away with claiming they care about the border and then refusing to vote for tough bipartisan compromises,” Murphy said. “Democrats have been way too defensive in our positioning on immigration.”
Foreign aid:
What Biden says: Biden recently said Israel’s military operations in Gaza have been “over the top.” This was the furthest he had gone publicly in criticizing Israel’s efforts to destroy Hamas in Gaza. And this past weekend, Vice President Kamala Harris called for an “immediate ceasefire” for the next six weeks, citing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Translation: The Biden administration has made no secret of its concerns with Israel’s actions in Gaza but until recently, was only communicating this privately. Lately, this pressure campaign has spilled out into the open, with Biden and Harris stepping up their rhetoric.
The politics here are inescapable for Biden: A significant bloc of the Democratic voter base — including Arab-Americans and young voters — have been criticizing the president for not doing more to limit Israel’s bombing campaign in Gaza. And at nearly every public event, Biden has been heckled by protesters demanding a ceasefire.
So Biden’s more aggressive posture on this issue is as political as it is strategic — putting pressure on Israel to accept a hostage-for-ceasefire deal, while also trying to cool the temperature among progressives.
— Brendan Pedersen and Andrew Desiderio
PRESENTED BY THE AMERICAN CANCER SOCIETY CANCER ACTION NETWORK
Congress: Pass H.R. 2407 and S. 2085. Fight Cancer. Make Time.
With more than 611,000 people expected to die from cancer this year in the U.S., Congress must continue prioritizing the fight against cancer. Multi-cancer early detection tests have the potential to transform cancer screening by testing for dozens of cancers with a simple blood test. Congress must provide a pathway to access in Medicare once FDA-approved and clinical benefit is shown.
As the President outlines his priorities in the State of the Union address, access to innovation in early cancer detection should be at the top of his list — and top of mind for all lawmakers. Congress: Act now.
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Introducing Tech – our newest policy vertical. From high-profile interviews with industry influencers & policymakers to key lobbying updates, Punchbowl News Tech will be your go-to for timely technology insights.
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