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NEW DATA: Oxford Economics finds Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Mandates would hurt local economies, costing $227 billion and 156,000 jobs across the country.
PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER, JAKE SHERMAN AND HEATHER CAYGLE
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL
THE TOP

Good Friday morning.
Early Thursday, our good friends Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns of the New York Times dropped a bombshell from their new book “This Will Not Pass.”
The story, which the Times published, disclosed that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy privately told GOP colleagues that former President Donald Trump should consider resigning in the wake of the Jan. 6 insurrection. McCarthy believed the Senate was likely to convict Trump after the House impeached him and “it would be my recommendation that he should resign.”
McCarthy and his aides offered an emphatic denial of the NYT story early in the day.
But then, on Rachel Maddow’s show on MSNBC Thursday evening, JMart and Burns showed their receipts. McCarthy did indeed say that he’d counsel Trump to resign because the Senate was likely to convict him following an impeachment trial.
Here’s the audio, take a listen for yourself – if you somehow haven’t already.
OK, let’s unpack this all.
→ | First things first: McCarthy’s office didn’t have any comment Thursday night following the release of the tape. We’ll see what happens today. |
→ | The unequivocal denial that McCarthy and his team issued turned into a disaster for the California Republican. They denied something that was true. Period. |
→ | We asked Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) about this episode, including whether she leaked the tape. Here’s the response from a Cheney spokesperson: “The select committee has asked Kevin McCarthy to speak with us about these events but he has so far declined. Representative Cheney did not record or leak the tape and does not know how the reporters got it.” |
There will be a lot of speculation about who did tape the conversation. It doesn’t matter to the non-political world, but in the sometimes turbulent atmosphere of the House Republican leadership, this will be on everyone’s mind. Remember: Aides are oftentimes listening in on these calls. And there are plenty of figures in the GOP leadership who would benefit from McCarthy’s fall.
→ | Trump’s reaction to this incident is the key. If he dumps on McCarthy, that’s a major problem for the GOP leader. Trump can easily round up enough support within the House Republican Conference to prevent McCarthy from realizing his dream of wielding the speaker’s gavel. That’s Trump’s power here – he can’t make McCarthy the speaker, but he can stop it from happening. |
However, Trump is savvy politically. He’s forgiven people for saying nasty things about him when it suits him. Hello Trump-endorsed Senate candidate J.D. Vance! But if Trump decides to use this against McCarthy, that would give the Freedom Caucus and other anti-McCarthyites within the GOP Conference cover to do the same. It might be enough to prevent McCarthy from being speaker. We’ll all see how Trump plays this one.
Don’t forget this either: McCarthy was the first senior Republican to visit Trump in Mar-a-Lago in late Jan. 2021, just over a week after the former president left Washington in disgrace. That was a pivotal moment for both men. McCarthy also stuck by Trump in the heat of the 2016 presidential campaign, following the release of the “Access Hollywood” tape.
It would be a mistake to overrate Trump’s loyalty to anyone except his family, as he’s repeatedly shown. Yet these two do have some history that makes it more complex than the reflexive “Trump is going to dump McCarthy now.”
→ | The only excuse McCarthy has here – if there is one – is that he was trying to protect Trump. If convicted by the Senate following an impeachment trial, Trump would be barred from running for federal office again. We began hearing that angle last night from several Republicans close to McCarthy. |
→ | It is exceedingly early, but the Republicans we spoke to following Maddow’s show don’t think this incident jeopardizes McCarthy’s current position or a future bid for the speakership. We’ll watch for how McCarthy plays this inside the conference. It’s the second half of the equation. Trump may forgive McCarthy, or look past this episode, but will other House Republicans? |
One senior House Republican leadership aide who doesn’t work for McCarthy texted us this last night: “This too shall pass.”
Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas): “29 wks from now Republicans will have the majority and Kevin McCarthy will be Speaker of the House.”
→ | Twitter isn’t real life. Never forget this. Democrats and McCarthy haters had a field day on Thursday night – McCarthy’s career is over, he’s done, he’ll never be speaker, get out the shovels and dig the hole. Here’s Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), who like Cheney serves on the Jan. 6 select committee: “Wow. McCarthy literally today said this was a lie and just a few hours later the tape with his voice from his mouth proves THAT was a lie. Incredible. @GOPLeader ought to be ashamed. Republicans, your leaders think you are dumb. Let’s be done with them.” |
But once again, Twitter isn’t real life. As we said, we’ll first have to see how Trump responds. Then we’ll see how this plays out in the GOP conference over the weekend and into next week, when the House returns following a two-week recess. McCarthy will be busy checking in with his colleagues, and so will we.
BTW: JMart and Burns have more. Buy that book! FYI: It’s already No. 1 on Amazon and doesn’t come out until May 3.
PRESENTED BY ALIBABA GROUP
Alibaba is partnering with thousands of American companies of all sizes to expand their growth in China. Our ability to connect U.S. businesses with over 900 million consumers in China is truly unique—making Alibaba a powerful growth engine for U.S. businesses.
In fact, U.S. businesses made sales of over $61 billion across Alibaba’s e-commerce platforms last year alone.
UKRAINE
Biden seeks more help for Ukraine
President Joe Biden will be calling on Congress next week to provide another tranche of military and economic aid to Ukraine as Russia redoubles its attacks on the country.
“In order to sustain Ukraine for the duration of this fight, next week I’m going to have to be sending to Congress a supplemental budget request to keep weapons and ammunition flowing,” Biden said on Thursday. “My hope is and my expectation is Congress would move and act quickly.”
It’s unclear how big the new aid request will be, with Biden telling reporters he is waiting for a recommendation from the Pentagon.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who, like Biden, met with the Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on Thursday, vowed to take action on the aid package as soon as possible. The new request comes after the White House has nearly exhausted the $13.6 billion in Ukrainian aid approved by Congress last month.
Biden announced another $800 million in military aid Thursday. This package includes howitzers, 144,000 rounds of ammunition, dozens of vehicles, and tactical drones designed specifically for Ukraine to counter the Russian offensive in the Donbas region. Biden also announced an additional $500 million in economic aid.
Overall, the United States has given Ukraine $4 billion in military aid during Biden’s presidency, with 85% of that total coming since the Feb. 24 invasion.
Backing Ukraine is one of the few issues that has widespread support within Congress, so we expect this legislation to be approved quickly. The big question is whether Democrats will try to pair Ukrainian aid with the stalled COVID aid preparedness package – and how Republicans will respond to that.
We asked House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer following a meeting with Shmyhal on Thursday if Democrats planned to pair the COVID funding with a Ukraine supplemental.
“Well, we want to get both of those things done. I don’t want to prejudge how I’ll do that,” Hoyer said, adding House Democratic leaders have yet to discuss the situation.
The Coverage
→ | NYT: “Ukraine needs up to $7 billion in support per month, Zelensky says,” by Jesus Jiménez |
→ | Politico: “Biden wants more Ukraine aid. Congress won’t make it easy,” by Andrew Desiderio |
THE UPS AND DOWNS

DOWNTOWN DOWNLOAD
→ | ByteDance, the China-based creator of TikTok, has hired David Urban, formerly a close adviser of Trump administration officials, to lobby. |
PRESENTED BY ALIBABA GROUP

Thousands of U.S. companies, like Ocean Spray, are partnering with Alibaba to grow their businesses and succeed in China.

→ | Quite an ad here from David Perdue in his bid to become governor of Georgia. The former Republican senator said that all of the country’s problems “started right here when Brian Kemp sold us out and allowed radicals to steal the election. Kemp is just another establishment politician who fought Trump.” Kemp is beating Perdue in most every poll. This spot is running all over the state. |
https://youtu.be/Zhci4DwuIwg
FRONTS


MOMENTS
All times eastern
Noon: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.
1:30 p.m.: Biden will speak at Seward Park in Seattle to make “the case for his bold agenda to tackle the climate crisis, safeguard our nation’s forests, and bolster our resilience in the face of threats like wildfire.”
3:30 p.m.: Biden will speak at Green River College in Auburn, Wash., about “his recent actions to lower costs and give families more breathing room, and will call on Congress to pass his plan to lower health care and energy costs.”
5:15 p.m.: Biden will leave Auburn for Seattle. He’ll fly to Philadelphia and then depart for New Castle, where he will arrive at 10:40 p.m.
CLIP FILE
NYT
→ | “The U.S. Appealed to Reinstate Masks. But Is It Seeking to Win?” by Charlie Savage and Sharon LaFraniere |
→ | “N.Y. House Districts Illegally Favor Democrats, Appeals Court Rules,” by Nick Fandos |
→ | “Donald Trump Jr. Plans to Meet With Jan. 6 Committee,” by Luke Broadwater and Maggie Haberman |
WaPo
→ | “Zelensky, Rep. Cheney to receive JFK Profile in Courage award,” by Amy B Wang |
WSJ
→ | “Democrats Urge Final Push on Stalled Agenda to Limit Possible Midterm Losses,” by Eliza Collins and Andrew Restuccia |
Bloomberg
→ | ”U.S. Blasts China’s Support for Russia, Vows to Help India,” by Iain Marlow |
AP
→ | “Biden’s election year challenge: Blame GOP for nation’s woes,” by Will Weissert and Zeke Miller |
CNN
→ | “Senate front-runner in Pennsylvania embraces Biden and progressive agenda amid Democrats’ midterm dilemma,” by Manu Raju, Alex Rogers and Ali Zaslav |
PRESENTED BY ALIBABA GROUP
Ocean Spray, Stride Rite, Fender, and Bissell. These are just a few of the American companies partnering with Alibaba to drive business growth in China. Our ability to connect these companies—and thousands more like them—to almost one billion consumers in China makes us a powerful growth engine for U.S. businesses.
And it’s not just big companies. Emily’s Chocolates, Antica Farmacista, Nuria Beauty, and other U.S. small businesses also use Alibaba’s e-commerce platforms to enter the Chinese marketplace and increase sales.
In fact, last year, U.S. businesses made sales of over $61 billion while working with Alibaba. That’s $61 billion in sales in 2021 alone!
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.

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Presented by The Electronic Payments Coalition
NEW DATA: Oxford Economics finds Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Mandates would hurt local economies, costing $227 billion and 156,000 jobs across the country.